US embassy cable - 05KATHMANDU2653

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002653 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, NP 
SUBJECT:  NC-D PARTY SUSPICIOUS, BUT VIEWS UNDERSTANDING 
WITH MAOISTS AS BIG ACHIEVEMENT 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 2556 
 
     B. KATHMANDU 2605 
     C. KATHMANDU 2635 
 
Classified By: CDA Elisabeth I. Millard, Reason 1.4 (b/d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C)  In a November 29 meeting with the Charge, Nepali 
Congress-Democratic (NC-D) Acting President Gopal Man 
Shrestha hailed the Maoist-Parties understanding a 
"breakthrough for peace and democracy," but noted that many 
details needed to be worked out.  He worried that the Maoists 
might be using the political parties for their own ends.  If 
the Maoists broke the cease-fire, Shrestha emphasized that 
NC-D would condemn the Maoist return to violence.  NC-D is 
involved with preparing for its national convention and the 
seven-party "agitation" against the King.  NC-D, like 
CPN-UML, appears to be pinning its hopes on the King 
responding positively to the understanding.  End Summary. 
 
Maoist-Parties Understanding an "Achievement," But Only 
Preliminary 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2. (C) Shrestha lauded the Maoist-Parties 12-point 
understanding (ref A) as a "big achievement."  He noted that 
he hoped that, were the Palace to respond positively, Nepal 
could make real progress toward peace.  NC-D Central 
Committee member Prakash Sharan Mahat, who participated in 
the meeting along with Central Committee member Sagar Rana, 
explained that the seven parties were "trying to make the 
Maoists realize that they were on an incorrect path and could 
not win."  He added that if the Parties succeeded in 
convincing the Maoists to change course, this should be 
welcomed by the international community.  Mahat stressed that 
the understanding was only preliminary; the parties and the 
Maoists still needed to work out many details. 
 
Leery of Maoist Intentions 
-------------------------- 
 
3. (C) The NC-D leaders stressed that they shared our concern 
about the Maoist intentions and were aware the Maoists might 
try to seize power.  They acknowledged that the Maoists 
continued to hinder NC-D party activities in some areas, 
although overall there had been a "vast improvement."  In 
certain areas, NC-D had to seek permission to work.  In 
places where Maoists are firmly in control, NC-D had no 
choice but to hold joint programs with the Maoists, even 
though it was NC-D's policy not to have joint programs. 
Mahat commented that the Maoists were attempting to pose as 
the state authority.   He said that the Parties remembered 
the Maoists' brutal history of dealing with the political 
parties.  He added that the Maoists had targeted Party cadre 
much more than people associated with the Palace. 
 
NC-D Will Disavow Maoist Violence 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The NC-D politicos stated that they would condemn the 
Maoists if they broke the cease-fire and returned to 
violence.  They asserted that NC-D would be able to 
disassociate itself from the Maoists in that event.  Shrestha 
noted that, per their understanding, the Maoists had promised 
to refrain from disturbing the seven-parties' activities in 
the countryside even if they broke the cease-fire.  He 
emphasized that NC-D had not joined with the Maoists, and 
would not do so while they used violence.  Mahat remarked 
that the Parties believed the Maoists' claim that they would 
lay down their weapons if the King accepted constitutional 
assembly elections.  He admitted that if that did not happen, 
violence could continue. 
 
All Depends on King's Response to the Understanding 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
5. (C) The NC-D leaders, like UML Leader MK Nepal (ref C), 
 
are waiting to see how King Gyanendra reacts upon his 
December 2 return to Nepal, and are hoping that his response 
will be positive.  Shrestha commented that if the King 
responded favorably, he would be able to retain a role as a 
ceremonial monarch.  The King needed to reverse his actions 
of February 1 and postpone municipal elections.  Mahat noted 
that the King's response could help force the Maoists to stop 
their extortions, abductions and other acts of violence. 
 
NC-D Preparing for National Convention 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The Acting NC-D President said the party was busy 
preparing for its national convention, to be held January 5, 
6 and 7, as well as participating in the seven party 
"agitation."  NC-D leaders were encouraged by the response to 
their membership drive.  Shrestha estimated that the party 
had about 100,000 "active members" and about 1,000,000 
"ordinary members."  He noted that his party cadre had 
participated in the UML-organized meetings in Butwal, 
Pokhara, and Janakpur (ref B), and would participate in the 
December 2 demonstration in Kathmandu as well as those held 
by Nepali Congress.  NC-D itself planned a meeting on 
December 11 in Kathmandu. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) While hopeful about the understanding, the NC-D 
leaders are more anxious than most UML leaders about its 
possible consequences.  However, all of the Party leaders are 
apparently pinning their hopes on a positive response from 
Gyanendra.  They do not appear to be developing a strategy in 
the event the King rejects the understanding. 
MILLARD