US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1811

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001811 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: TROOPS, LEGAL ACTIONS INCREASE BAYELSA TENSION 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Yenagoa, the Bayelsa State Capital, is the 
site of a quiet but increasingly tense political standoff. 
While Governor Alamieyeseigha is going through the motions of 
normal operations, he is being guarded and supported by 
scores of armed Ijaw irregulars.  Meanwhile, up to 1,000 
Federal troops deployed around Yenagoa on Monday. 
Demonstrations for and against Governor Alamieyeseigha 
continued.  Developments on the legal front also contributed 
to the stress level in the state, with conflicting reports 
regarding coercion by the Economic and Financial Crimes 
Commission (EFCC) in obtaining necessary endorsement of State 
Assembly members for the Governor's impeachment.  The 
Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences 
Commission (ICPC) also launched a new investigation into 
alleged misdeeds by the Governor.  Predictably, the Federal 
Government has apparently frozen Bayelsa's monthly revenue 
allocation.  The increased visibility of weapons and the 
possible drying up of funds adds to the unease in Bayelsa. 
Both sides need to tread delicately for a wrong step could 
spark actual unrest in the oil producing state.  End summary. 
 
---------------------------------- 
FEDERAL TROOPS DEPLOYED IN YENAGOA 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Tension escalated yesterday as the Federal Government 
deployed troops in Yenagoa, capital of Bayelsa State, 
reportedly to maintain order.  Up to 1,000 troops from the 
Joint Military Task Force in the Niger Delta, supporting 
Operation Restore Hope, were deployed around key state and 
local government buildings.  Machine guns were setup at 
strategic locations, while helicopters hovered overhead. 
Protests for and against Alamieyeseigha continued despite the 
presence of the troops.  State officials allege the troops 
were deployed to promote unrest and provide an excuse for the 
Federal Government to declare a state of emergency. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
CONFLICTING IMPEACHMENT ACCOUNTS, NEW LEGAL ACTION CLOUD 
GOVERNOR'S POSITION 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
3.  (C) There were conflicting reports regarding the Bayelsa 
State House's impeachment notice delivered to the Governor 
last week.  Nine assemblymen of the twenty-four have 
distanced themselves from the charges.  One assemblyman who 
changed his position, Nimbofa Ayaowei, charged members were 
coerced by EFCC threats of possible criminal action against 
them into endorsing the impeachment effort.  Ayaowei claims 
he was jailed before agreeing to the impeachment.  Bayelsa 
State House Speaker Peremobowei Ebebi disputes Ayaowei's 
account and contends that members were never threatened by 
the EFCC.  (Comment:  While the charges of coercion are 
disputed, this is not the first time the EFCC has been 
subject to such allegations.  Whether correctly or not, the 
EFCC's image is being tarnished by the growing perception 
that it has become Obasanjo's favorite instrument with which 
to hammer his political opponents.  End comment.) 
 
4.  (U) Previously Ebebi reported seventeen members had 
endorsed the notice.  However, the latest count shows fifteen 
members in support, nine opposed.  For the impeachment to 
carry, a two-thirds majority, or sixteen members, is needed. 
Additionally, Emmanuel Igoniwari, Chief Judge of Bayelsa 
State, who would be tasked with naming the seven member panel 
to investigate the impeachment charges, has reportedly fled 
Yenagoa out of safety concerns.  In short, the ultimate 
outcome of the impeachment proceedings is uncertain.  Much 
will depend on whether the Federal Government or Bayelsa 
Government can outdo the other in the amount of pressure 
placed on these hapless assembly members, who never dreamed 
that they would be at the center of such a drama. 
 
5.  (U) Following a ruling by the Federal High Court, the 
Governor also faces investigation by the ICPC.  In a case 
dating back to 2002, Alamieyeseigha is alleged to have 
awarded over 1.7 billion naira to non-existent companies for 
construction of the Niger Delta University.  Following the 
charges, ICPC initiated an investigation and found that the 
companies were not in existence at the time the contracts 
were awarded.  However, Chief Wole Olanipekun, former 
President of the Nigerian Bar Association, brought suit to 
halt the investigation based on the Governor's immunity. 
This past weekend Justice Anwuli Chikere ruled that 
Olanipekun's suit was without merit, and requested the ICPC 
case proceed.  (Comment:  This ruling, on the heels of the 
stalled impeachment bid, raises suspicions of the Federal 
Government leaning on the court to resuscitate this dormant 
case.  Again, in the Nigerian parlance, it takes on the color 
of a good act being done for questionable motives.  End 
comment.) 
 
-------------------------------------- 
...THE TRUMP CARD...FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 
WITHHOLDS NOVEMBER PAYOUT 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The GON apparently is tightening the financial 
screws on Bayelsa.  The Bayelsa state accountant general has 
yet to return from Abuja with the November revenue 
distribution, and sources confirm that no payout to Bayelsa 
has been made.  The Federal allocation is a vital monthly 
infusion of capital into Bayelsa.  While its suspension will 
impact the Governor, it will also negatively affect ordinary 
Bayelsans, especially if this continues for some time. 
Further, a delay in payment is not supported by the 
constitution or Nigerian law. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7.  (C) Bayelsa has become a standoff and a test of wills 
between the Governor and the President.  With his liberty and 
riches at stake, the personal stakes are higher for 
Alamieyeseigha but the political stakes may actually be 
higher for Obasanjo.  All Alamieyeseigha wants is to remain 
as governor.  Obasanjo has the harder task of trying to oust 
him.  While Obasanjo has greater power, the game will mostly 
be played on the unfriendly turf of Bayelsa where the 
Governor has a distinct hometown advantage.  At this moment, 
Alamieyeseigha probably believes he has won more tactical 
battles than he has lost since his mysterious return.  He has 
been a rallying point for disaffected Ijaw militants and 
politicians, and he is also probably getting moral support 
and some material succor from anti-Obasanjo figures elsewhere 
in Nigeria who, for their own reasons, want to see Obasanjo's 
glare diverted from them. 
 
8.  (C) Comment continued:  The confluence of Federal troops, 
Ijaw militias loyal to Alamieyeseigha, continuing legal 
turmoil, and threatened economic strangulation of Bayelsa 
State by the Federal Government combine into an uncomfortable 
situation.  A miscalculation or an inadvertent incident could 
ignite a hot crisis.  Lives and property could be at risk, 
and the flow of oil could be interrupted, if either side 
negligently misplays their hand.  The question now becomes 
how long will Obasanjo's patience last, how far will he go to 
excise this affront to his presidential power and then how 
far will Alamieyeseigha go in reacting to presidential 
stratagems.  End comment. 
 
9.  (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE