US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4763

UNCLAS TAIPEI 004763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: Pingtung County Magistrate Election Countdown 
 
REF:  Taipei 4355 
 
  SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
  1.  (SBU) Both sides express optimism about the December 
  3 election based on conflicting polls carried out by 
  party operatives in Pingtung County's green and blue 
  camps.  While KMT officials would not reveal specific 
  numbers, they told AIT/K KMT candidate Wang Chin-shih has 
  maintained a comfortable lead in their polls throughout 
  the close race.  A DPP campaign assistant in charge of 
  polling and promotional activities told AIT/K DPP 
  candidate Tsao Chi-hung leads in internal polls by 5 
  percent.  Based on these results the DPP predicts Tsao 
  will win the election by ten thousand votes (there are 
  160,000 eligible voters in Pingtung County). 
 
  2. (SBU) Although independent candidate Soong Li-hua's 
  support continues to hover at 10 percent despite ongoing 
  vote-buying charges and indictments (see reftel), both 
  KMT and DPP officials expect that the "dump and protect 
  effect" (chi-pao) will take place.  They anticipate that 
  the vast majority of votes for Soong Li-hua will 
  disappear on the morning of December 3, going instead in 
  an even-split between DPP and KMT. 
 
  3.  (SBU) The KMT remains extremely cautious about 
  potential DPP campaign tricks and is trying to put out 
  any fires as they arise.  Both parties have their 
  heavyweights campaigning locally by walking or parading 
  in the street this week.  President Chen was in Pingtung 
  on the afternoon of the November 29, when AIT/K visited 
  the city.  Ma Ying-jeou, Wu Dun-yi, and Wang Jyn-ping 
  have also visited the county for the KMT in the last two 
  weeks. 
 
  4.  (SBU) The KMT stated they hoped to keep the last week 
  of the campaign calm and cool. They don't want to 
  emphasize any party issues or arouse inter-party strife. 
  Their hope is to not engender any sense of crisis that 
  will rile green voters and thus push them to the polls. 
  On the other hand, the DPP said its last few days is 
  concentrated on whipping up three kinds of voters who may 
  stay away from the polls:  first - voters who are 
  confident that the DPP candidate will win and may not 
  vote; second - voters who support the DPP but are so 
  disappointed by DPP corruption scandals they are not 
  motivated to vote; and, third - soft-hearted voters who 
  are easily sympathetic to a weak candidate and may throw 
  their votes to a tearful Soong Li-hua.  Both parties 
  remain convinced voter turnout will decide this election. 
 
  5.  (SBU) Comment:  This race remains too close to call. 
  Although internal party polls are usually good indicators 
  of the real direction of the race, neither side could 
  present conclusive evidence or display even enough 
  bravado about their polls to indicate to AIT/K that they 
  have a firm lead.  End comment. 
 
  THIELE 
 
  PAAL