US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2411

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002411 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE OVER: SOMEONE 
PLEASE TELL THE HORSES - VACUUM OF INFORMATION/LEADERSHIP 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2393 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles Ford; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary. Liberal Party presidential candidate Manuel 
"Mel" Zelaya continues to wait to claim victory in spite of 
several independent sources that show that he won by over 5 
percent over National Party presidential candidate Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo.  Formal, public recognition of a Zelaya victory 
has not been made and pressure on Ambassador continue from 
the Nationalist Party to refrain from doing so until the 
official count is in.  Although an excited group of 
Nationalists protested outside the Supreme Electoral Tribunal 
(TSE) the evening of November 28 chanting "Count the Vote!" 
Honduras continues to remain calm in spite of continuing 
delays in official vote counts. End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On the evening of November 28, National Party 
presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo rallied his party 
at his party's headquarters before releasing the group of 400 
to 500 people to the streets.  The group, though not violent, 
was clearly overly excited and could not be controlled by 
Nationalist Party President Gilberto Goldstein.  In an 
attempt to calm the group, Goldstein announced "We have 
victory!" since the TSE announced it would start the vote 
counting at 10:00pm local.  About 300 demonstrators moved to 
the main street of Tegucigalpa after leaving the TSE.  Police 
blocked both ends of the street and the rally continued 
without incident. 
 
3. (SBU) By 8:15am November 29 the TSE had tabulated 1,489 
tables out of the national 13,869, roughly 11 percent, mostly 
from the greater Tegucigalpa area, but had not yet publicly 
released the information.  The TSE had announced that the 
magistrates would hold a press conference at 11:00am to 
release these initial numbers, but in the end, this press 
conference was postponed until this afternoon.  Goldstein and 
Liberal Party President Patricia Rodas reportedly held a 
shouting match at the TSE temporary vote count center.  A 
press conference was held at 3:00pm showing that the TSE now 
had tabulated 2,649 tables (roughly 19 percent).  The 
National Party and Christian Democrat Party magistrates were 
present; the Liberal Party TSE President was not.  The TSE 
warehouse is reporting that they now have 75 percent of the 
ballots in from roughly 14 of the departments, a good sign of 
progress. 
 
4. (C) At 7:30am on November 29 Ambassador met with Lobo at 
the Residence.  Although the meeting was to have been 
one-on-one, Lobo brought with him National Congressional 
candidate and key party official David Matamoros and 
political consultant Mark Klugman.  The Ambassador brought up 
the TSE and OAS Quick Count numbers and asked Lobo if he had 
any other information or statistical surveys showing that he 
was ahead.  Lobo and his team had no reply.  Ambassador 
emphasized that the OAS had informed the Embassy that the OAS 
Quick Count has been accurate all 44 times it has been 
employed.  Lobo did say that he would not concede until 
enough votes had been counted.  Klugman went further, handing 
the Ambassador a copy of the Nationalists' talking points 
arguing why a Nationalist Party president would supposedly be 
better for the USG than a Liberal Party president.  The 
document is similar to previous points passed to USG 
officials in past meeting with the National Party.  (Note: 
The afternoon/evening of November 28 senior National Party 
officials and Klugman spoke with PolChief to vehemently 
express their concerns that no public vote count had been 
released, criticizing the TSE, and encouraging the Embassy 
not to make what they termed any premature statement about a 
Zelaya victory.  End Note.) 
 
5. (C) At 9:30am on November 29 Ambassador met alone with 
Zelaya at the residency.  He cautioned Zelaya to temper his 
rhetoric in regards to Lobo, President Ricardo Maduro, and 
the National Party.  Zelaya had tipped off the press that he 
was meeting with the Ambassador and was greeted by a large 
group of reporters at the gate to the residence after the 
meeting.  Zelaya did not reveal to the press the details of 
his meeting, but talked about the electoral situation. 
Zelaya canceled a planned November 29 trip to El Salvador; 
Salvadoran President Saca had already called to congratulate 
Zelaya.  Press reports also indicate that Roman Catholic 
Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez called Zelaya from Europe to 
congratulate him. 
 
6. (C) There have been a flurry of phone calls from both 
parties expressing concern and seeking progress.  On the 
afternoon/evening of November 28: 
-Ambassador spoke with Special Representative of the OAS 
Secretary General and former U.S. Ambassador to Honduras 
 
SIPDIS 
Frank Almaguer. 
-Ambassador spoke with Honduran President Maduro. Ambassador 
emphasized his concern of the situation and encouraged Maduro 
to step up and assist his country during this tense time with 
a a more explicit public statement indicating the election 
reality.  Although he asked Maduro to phone him back, several 
hours later former Honduran President Raphael Callejas called 
instead to discuss the situation with the Ambassador.  Former 
Honduran President Carlos Flores also spoke with Ambassador. 
-National Party senior advisors called PolChief before, 
during, and after the above demonstration to both assure Post 
that the demonstration was peaceful and to express concern 
over the vote count situation. 
-Liberal Party senior advisors also called PolChief to 
express concern over the Nationalist rally. 
The morning/afternoon of November 29: 
-Ambassador spoke with President Maduro.  Maduro said the 
National Party was meeting again on the situation. 
-Ambassador spoke with Ambassador Almaguer.  The OAS issued a 
public statement this afternoon concerning the situation. 
 
7. (C) Although the press is reporting that former Minister 
of Public Security and senior National Party member Oscar 
Alvarez is returning to his position, EmbOff received word 
that he would not be going back to the Ministry.  (Note: If 
this is indeed true, it could be an important show of 
acceptance by the Nationalist Party that the Liberals won. 
End Note.) 
 
8. (C) Comment: Although it is obvious to everyone, including 
both parties and presidential candidates, that Mel Zelaya and 
his Liberal Party won the presidential elections, the public 
drama continues.  Pressure is mounting from both sides, 
though more so from the Nationalist Party, for the TSE to 
finalize the vote count.  It appears that until this is done, 
the nail biting, sitting and waiting, and praying for 
continued calm will continue.  Neither President Maduro nor 
the TSE has shown leadership on this issue, forcing the OAS 
to try to do so partly by issuing a press release the 
afternoon of November 29.  End Comment. 
Ford