US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4234

UNCLAS  ALMATY 004234 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, 
NOVEMBER 29 
 
1. (U) This is the tenth in a series of weekly election 
roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005 
presidential elections.  Items were drawn primarily from 
the local press and media. 
 
Poll Shows Nazarbayev Popularity at 76 Percent 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (U) A recent opinion poll conducted by Kazrating, a pro- 
government polling agency, indicated that President 
Nazarbayev's popularity rating stood at 76%.  Support for 
Yerasyl Abylkasymov, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, and Alikhan 
Baymenov had fallen to under 10% for each candidate, 
according to the poll.  Half of one percent said they 
supported Mels Yeleusizov.  The poll was conducted over 
three days and surveyed 1,000 people.  Three-fourths of 
respondents confirmed they would vote. 
 
Office of the Procurator General Praises CEC Efforts 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
3. (U) A report prepared by the Office of the Procurator 
General praised the Central Election Committee (CEC) and 
other government agencies for their efforts in monitoring 
the election process.  The report applauded the openness 
and high professionalism of the CEC and the effective 
measures taken by government agencies to ensure the 
fairness of the upcoming vote.  The report also noted that 
the opposition committed the highest number of electoral 
law violations, most of which were related to the 
collection of signatures. 
 
KNB Issues New Warning 
---------------------- 
 
4. (U) On November 24, the National Security Committee 
(KNB) issued a press release stating that "the national 
security agencies of Kazakhstan will put a stop to any 
attempts directed against the interests of citizens, 
society and the state."  The statement said that members 
of public organizations (NFI) were trying to provoke 
conflict between the government and the opposition by 
accusing the leadership of the country of pursuing 
undemocratic policies.  "We are checking information about 
youth groups formed from low category young people, who 
will be used for participating in so-called active 
actions."  According to KNB sources, two representatives 
of the Kazakhstani opposition operating in Kyrgyzstan 
addressed a letter to youth organizations, urging the 
opposition to victory by organizing a popular uprising. 
 
5. (U) The press release also stressed that some media 
outlets have without merit regularly published and aired 
materials discrediting national security agencies. 
According to the press release, representatives of the For 
a Just Kazakhstan (FJK) bloc and journalists affiliated 
with FJK use every opportunity to associate all negative 
public incidents to the special services. 
 
Independent Monitoring Organization Reports Violations 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
6. (U) On November 22, the Republican Network of 
Independent Monitors (RNIM) issued its intermediate report 
on the election.  The RNIM recorded violations of the 
election law during the signature collection campaign, 
noting that that election commissions failed to properly 
inform people about the candidates and the signature 
collecting campaign.  The RNIM report also stated that law 
enforcement agencies and local authorities had interfered 
in the election process.  According to the report, 
representatives of local procuracy offices in 13 regions 
overstepped their authority by reviewing the signature 
forms of potential presidential candidate Ualikhan 
Kaysarov.  Only the CEC maintained the legal authority to 
oversee the signature collection campaign. 
 
Opposition Urges CEC to Issue Special Ruling 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) On November 25, the election headquarters of 
Tuyakbay, Baymenov, and Yeleusizov appealed to the CEC to 
pass urgently a special ruling on election procedures to 
ensure a fair vote.  The appeal recommended the CEC 
 
 
implement several procedures, including placement of 
posters at the entrance of every polling station with 
information about voters' rights to use either the e- 
voting system of paper ballots, timely delivery of 
election results, and the annulment of a previous CEC 
ruling on the use of envelopes for paper ballots. The head 
of Nazarbayev's election headquarters Bakhytzhan 
Zhumagulov declined to sign the appeal.  Abylkasymov's 
campaign team said they would probably sign the appeal, 
but needed to discuss the matter internally. 
 
8. (U) On November 28, the CEC adopted a decree reversing 
the decision to use envelopes during the voting. 
 
International Observers 
----------------------- 
 
9. (U) On November 28 the CEC accredited an additional 15 
foreign observers and journalists, bringing the total to 
1605. 
 
10. (U) On November 18, the CEC, at the behest of the 
Procurator General, ordered the CIS-EMO group to leave 
Kazakhstan by November 25.  The group appealed to 
President Nazarbayev to intervene.  CIS-EMO claimed that 
political motives were behind the CEC's decision to revoke 
the group's accreditation.  CIS-EMO issued a preliminary 
report which documented interference in the election 
process by government officials and other actors. 
 
Opposition Leader Fined for Insulting College Principal 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
11. (U) The city court in Semipalatinsk found Tolen 
Tokhtasynov of "For a Just Kazakhstan" guilty of insulting 
college principal Marat Mukhamedzhanov.  The court ordered 
Tokhtasynov to pay 48,550 Tenge ($362) in damages.  The 
incident reportedly occurred during Tuyakbay's election 
campaign stop in Semipalatinsk. 
 
Otan Party Crying Foul 
---------------------- 
 
12. (U) Four unidentified assailants broke into the Otan 
Party headquarters in the city of Shymkent.  The police 
failed to arrest the culprits.  Some party documents were 
allegedly stolen, but the head of the branch office, 
Shaltay Myrzakhmetov, could not identify which documents 
were lost. 
 
13. (U) Nazarbayev's campaign headquarters in Shymkent 
announced on November 24 that two unidentified people had 
beaten up a representative of the Otan campaign 
headquarters in Turkestan, Kakharman Koshkarov.  Otan 
representatives claimed the incident was politically 
motivated.  The local MVD is investigating. 
 
Communist Newspaper Accused of Violating the Law 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
14. (U) The Procurator General of Karaganda City filed a 
lawsuit against the editor-in-chief of the Communist of 
Kazakhstan newspaper for publishing free-of-charge 
campaign materials in support of Abylkasymov.  The 
People's Communist Party of Kazakhstan denied the 
accusations, saying that they cannot "pay money to 
themselves." 
 
Nazarbayev Says Election Process Fair 
------------------------------------- 
 
15. (U) On November 18 in Kiev, Ukraine, President 
Nazarbayev reiterated that the Government of Kazakhstan 
was doing everything to hold fair elections.  Nazarbayev 
expressed hope that international observers would assess 
the elections objectively.  When asked if the election 
issue was raised at his meeting with Ukrainian President 
Yushenko, Nazarbayev replied that their talks were limited 
to trade.   Kazakhstan is a sufficiently democratic 
country, said Nazarbayev. 
 
ORDWAY