US embassy cable - 02RANGOON1567

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001567 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB/IDF, AND IO/EDA 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL 
CINCPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2007 
TAGS: EAID, ECON, BM, UNDP, Economy 
SUBJECT: RAZALI HEARS THE SAME TUNE ON ECONOMY, UNDP 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 1479 
 
     B. RANGOON 1219 
     C. RANGOON 1068 
     D. RANGOON 1069 
 
Classified By: COM CARMEN MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: UN Special Envoy for Burma Razali Ismail, 
during his November visit to Rangoon, paid a call on the 
SPDC's Minister for National Planning and Economic 
Development, and focal point for SPDC-UN relations, U Soe 
Tha.  As he did during Razali's previous visit in August, the 
Minister played Razali the same unbelievable tune: touting 
the country's economic progress, explaining the necessity of 
GOB "involvement" in UNDP programs, and justifying limiting 
Aung San Suu Kyi's access to UN project sites.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) Post has recently obtained an official GOB readout of 
the meeting between the SPDC's economic planning czar U Soe 
Tha (the GOB focal point for UNDP and UNICEF projects in 
Burma) and Razali when he visited Rangoon in mid-November. 
During the brief meeting, Razali asked U Soe Tha about the 
sagging Burmese economy and for a progress report on the 
projects proposed by the UNDP for the fourth iteration of its 
Human Development Initiative (HDI-IV). 
 
3. (C) On the economy, U Soe Tha repeated almost verbatim his 
message from August, citing purported year-on-year double 
digit GDP growth rates thus far in FY 2002-03, an increase in 
exports resulting in a trade surplus, and an "improving" 
budgetary situation.  He did admit that inflation was 
"slightly high," but said that "necessary measures" were 
being taken to reduce the inflation rate. 
 
4. (C) On the UNDP's HDI-IV projects, U Soe Tha told Razali 
that 6 of 7 proposed projects would likely get underway 
sometime this month.  However, it is unclear whether these 
projects have actually been approved by the cabinet, or just 
by "concerned ministries."  We also understand that the 
UNDP's planned agricultural sector review has gotten the nod. 
 On a less encouraging note, the Minister repeated his August 
warning to Razali that "the GOB will be more involved in the 
HDI-IV than it was in the HDI-III."  Once again, though, the 
Minister did not flesh out the details of this planned 
"involvement." 
 
5. (C) As he did in August, Razali expressed his concern that 
ASSK be allowed to visit and study HDI-IV program sites.  U 
Soe Tha was unmoved, though, repeating his earlier reply that 
government approval was necessary if any "outsider" wished to 
study projects sites that were "the responsibility of 
government organizations." 
 
6. (C) Comment: Razali did not push U Soe Tha on the economy 
as much as in August, leading us to think that the Envoy is 
realizing that debating the finer points of economic reform 
with the witless Minster is a fool's errand.  The regime is 
claiming that it is removing obstacles to the UNDP's HDI-IV 
programs.  However, UNDP tells us that progress on this front 
has in fact been quite limited.  Likewise, the repeated, but 
vague, threat of increased government attention to UNDP 
projects and the apparent continued official reluctance to 
allow ASSK access to aid project sites are of concern.  End 
comment. 
Martinez