US embassy cable - 05HALIFAX256

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000256 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CA, Elections 
SUBJECT: ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE 2005 FEDERAL ELECTION: NO SEISMIC 
SHIFTS PREDICTED 
 
 
1.  Summary:  With a federal election now called for January 23, 
our contacts see little change occurring in the Liberals' hold 
on most of Atlantic Canada's 32 Parliamentary seats.  The U.S. 
and bilateral issues likely will not be major factors in the 
campaign.  End Summary 
 
2.  Voters in Canada's Atlantic Provinces (New Brunswick, Nova 
Scotia, Newfoundland-Labrador and Prince Edward Island) are not 
expecting to see much change in the regional lineup after the 
January 23 federal election.  As the campaign starts to unfold, 
the Liberals will be looking to defend the 22 of the 32 seats 
they now have in the region, with the Conservatives seeking to 
add to the seven they have and the New Democrats hoping to pick 
off a falling Liberal or two to add to their current three 
seats.  A drastic change in seat allocation seems unlikely given 
that regional polls show the federal Liberal party is still the 
favorite among Atlantic Canadians, followed by the 
Conservatives, and with the NDP in third place.  As with the 
2004 campaign, voters are still wary of Stephen Harper and the 
Conservatives, viewing them as too closed-minded and too focused 
on western Canada, both perceived being to the detriment of the 
Atlantic region.  The NDP continues to be viewed as the 
traditional third party, and one which still needs to work on 
establishing a presence in many constituencies throughout the 
region. 
 
3.  Key issues for the region, as always, will be the economy 
and jobs.  Management of the fishery will be a factor in 
Newfoundland-Labrador.  National unity has also been mentioned 
by some of our contacts as a potential issue, since the prospect 
of the Bloc Quebecois taking even more Quebec seats tends to 
reinforce Atlantic Canadian feelings of isolation.  Other than 
routine shots about the rise of "American style" anything -- 
campaigns, health care, you name it -- we do not at this point 
see the U.S. or bilateral issues as major factors in races in 
this part of the country. 
 
4.  Despite the sentiment that there will be little change in 
the configuration of the 32 seats after January 23, there are 
some interesting contests starting up.  In Nova Scotia, there 
will be lots of attention on the Halifax riding to see whether 
the Liberals can come up with a strong contender to go up 
against the NDP incumbent and former national leader Alexa 
McDonough -- not an easy task given that prevailing sentiment is 
that the seat is Alexa's to keep.  Over in New Brunswick the 
campaign there seems to be more exciting given a long-standing 
tiff between the federal Liberal MPs and Conservative Premier 
Bernard Lord over federal funding for several projects. 
Observers say the squabble could spill over into the election 
campaign.  Some Conservative strategists believe these bad 
feelings could topple at least two Liberal MPs including Indian 
and Northern Affairs minister Andy Scott.  Prince Edward Island 
is looking like it will keep its same four Liberals although the 
Conservatives believe they might stand a chance of knocking off 
Charlottetown's Shawn Murphy who represents PEI in the Martin 
government.  (In a strange alignment of duties, PEI MP Joe 
McGuire, the minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada 
Opportunity Agency, is not responsible for the province, Murphy 
is.)  In Newfoundland-Labrador there are no indications that 
much will change in the configuration of that province's seven 
seats.  The Liberals are expecting to hold their current five, 
but the Conservatives are hoping that the retirement of Cabinet 
Minister John Efford will open the door for them to add his 
Avalon riding to their total. 
 
5. Comment:  At this stepping off point the pundits see little 
change in Atlantic Canada's MP lineup following the January 23 
election.  However, there is always the cautionary note that a 
lot of things can happen in the next two months.  The parties 
all view the region as an important battleground with each seat 
vitally important. Consequently, we can expect to see lots of 
attention on key ridings where a relatively few votes will make 
a difference.  One regional columnist, with a cynical viewpoint, 
remarked that the voters here "will be wooed obscenely as long 
as there is the possibility that the region's help will be 
needed to form a government."  Recent federal spending 
announcements for the region have been flowing freely, 
indicating that the wooing has already started.  End comment. 
HILL