US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4778

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004778 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/15 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: ALLAWI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM REPORTS INTIMIDATION 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
 1. (C) Summary:  Allawi's National Iraqi List coalition has 
been subject to intimidation and harassment in Sadr city and 
the south, including the deaths of six Iraqis in clashes and 
attacks, according to TNA member and Allawi campaign manager 
Adnan al-Janabi.  In a meeting with Polcouns November 28, 
Janabi blamed the Mahdi Army for the recent murder of two 
Allawi political activists in Sadr city "in broad daylight as 
they were walking down the street."  He asserted Allawi 
supporters had been in threatening or violent incidents 
around the country, including Diwaniyah, Najaf, Karbala, and 
Kut, and blamed Sadrists and SCIRI's Badr Corps, 
respectively, for the violence and other acts of campaign 
intimidation.  By contrast, in the north, Janabi expects the 
major problem will be ballot stuffing by the Kurds in Mosul 
and Kirkuk.  He reported that Iyad Allawi had delivered a 
letter copied to the P-5 to UNAMI SRSG Ashraf Qazi seeking 
international support for a credible election.  In a 
subsequent conversation with poloff November 29, Azzam Alwash 
(of the Iraq Foundation), who has joined Allawi's campaign, 
echoed fears about the prospect of ballot stuffing throughout 
the country.  End Summary. 
 
Examples of Violent Intimidation in Baghdad and the South 
 
2. (C)  Janabi described for Polcouns and poloffs November 28 
examples of intimidation encountered by candidates and 
campaign workers from Allawi's National Iraq List.  The 
coercion ranged from pulling down campaign posters to the 
killing of political activists.  Recounting the death of two 
campaign workers in Sadr city, Janabi said they were killed 
"in broad daylight as they were walking down the street."  He 
said they had complained to the Sadr office, which denied 
responsibility.  He also reported political clashes in 
Diwaniyah following efforts by persons sympathetic to Allawi 
to reopen an independent radio station previously closed down 
by the governor, who is affiliated with Badr.  (Comment:  PRT 
Hillah notes the tension between the local government in 
Diwaniyah and the radio station predates the election, and 
cautions that this report may be exaggerated. End Comment) 
 
3. (C)  Janabi claimed Allawi supporters had been assaulted 
by Badr Corps members in Karbala, and been forced to cease or 
reschedule campaign activities in Kut and other cities in the 
south.  In Najaf, he said, the Sadrists threatened Radwan 
Kilidar, a candidate on the Allawi list, who is the cousin of 
Haidar Kilidar, the hereditary custodian of the Shrine of Ali 
who was allegedly murdered by Sadr with Abdel Majid al-Khoei 
in 2003.  The Sadrists reportedly told Kilidar's elderly 
mother she would lose her son if he did not drop out of the 
campaign.  When asked about the situation in Basrah, Janabi 
said "this may be the worst," but did not offer any other 
details. 
 
Concern about Ballot Stuffing 
 
4. (C) Janabi said the National Iraqi List fears ballot 
stuffing by the Kurds in Mosul and Kirkuk will skew the 
election results in those cities.  In contrast with the 
south, he predicted minimal confrontation in the north and in 
Sunni areas, because the Sunni community is actively 
participating in the electoral process for the first time and 
seeks a foothold in the new government.  Allawi advisor Azzam 
Alwash confirmed to poloff November 29 that the National Iraq 
List is seized by the prospect of ballot stuffing.  The List 
is in consultations with the Iraqi NGOs EIN and the Hammurabi 
Group, as well as 35,000 of its own supporters, in order to 
create a network of Iraqi observers at each of the country's 
six thousand polling centers.  The List is also working with 
other political parties and independent groups to develop and 
recommend additional safeguards for the balloting to the 
IECI. 
 
5. (C)  As a mark of the List's concern, Janabi advised 
Polcouns that Iyad Allawi had met with UNAMI SRSG Ashraf Qazi 
to urge a sizable presence of international monitors.  Allawi 
also provided Qazi with a letter copied to the P-5, seeking 
support for a credible election process.  Janabi opined that, 
like the Iraqi nation, the international community has a 
vested interest in a credible outcome.  (Note:  We are still 
seeking a copy of the letter, which Janabi told poloffs he 
did not have available to share.  End Note.) 
 
6. (C)  Finally, Janabi said the National Iraqi List is 
preparing to accelerate its campaign, with a major emphasis 
on using television to ensure Iraqi voters are familiar with 
the coalition's name, number, and symbol.  Another Allawi 
advisor said the coalition would target Kut, Nasiriyah, and 
Basra in the south; the coalition is aiming to garner 25 
percent of the vote nationwide. 
 
7. (C)  Comment:  Embassy has not been able to independently 
confirm all the allegations made by Allawi's campaign team. 
However, the reports of militia activity are credible and the 
concern about ballot stuffing familiar.  At the same time, a 
key message from Janabi and other sources is that while the 
challenges are real, the election campaign is moving forward. 
KHALILZAD