US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4776

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004776 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PNAT, PHUM, CPAS, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TALABANI ON ELECTIONS, CITIZENSHIP LAW 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR ZALMAY KHALILZAD FOR REASONS 1.4 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) In a November 27 meeting, President Talabani 
outlined to the Ambassador his predictions for the 
December election results: 90-110 seats for the Shia 
list; 50-60 seats for the Kurds; 45-50 seats for the 
Sunni Arabs; 25-35 seats for former PM Ayad Allawi's 
coalition; and 5-10 for Deputy PM Chalabi's group.  Of 
the Sunni Arab seats, Talabani predicted the majority 
would be won by List 618, with Saleh Mutlaq's Iraqi 
Front for National Dialogue relegated to 5 seats at 
most. 
 
2. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query on 
election preparations, Talabani stated that the 
propaganda and publicity machinery was active and 
working well.  However, Talabani deprecated Allawi's 
statements to the British press that the current state 
of human rights in Iraq "was worse now than under 
Saddam." (Note: Talabani's aide Kamiran Karadaghi 
repeatedly tried to correct Talabani to reflect more 
accurately Allawi's statement that the current human 
rights situation in Iraq is as bad as it ever was 
under Saddam. End Note.)  Talabani became very 
animated, wondering how Allawi could make comparisons 
between the freedoms Iraqis enjoy now and the brutal 
mass graves of Saddam Hussein. 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador then brought up the topic of 
citizenship rights, noting that the Transitional 
National Assembly (TNA) had passed a bill that 
specifically excluded Iraqi Jews from reclaiming their 
Iraqi citizenship.  The Ambassador characterized the 
move as unnecessary and unwise, pointing out its 
incompatibility with the tenets of the new Iraqi 
Constitution.  Talabani vowed to reject the bill and 
later during the meeting he instructed Karadaghi to 
find the bill immediately and reject it. 
 
4. (C) Finally, the Ambassador raised the issue of the 
four Western citizens who recently had been kidnapped 
from their car after meeting with the Muslim Ulema 
Council.  Talabani expressed his concern and urged the 
Ambassador to speak with the Ulema Council for their 
assistance. 
KHALILZAD