US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA948

UNCLAS  BRATISLAVA 000948 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
BUDAPEST PLEASE PASS USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, SOCI, LO 
SUBJECT: EIGHTEEN PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT IN SLOVAK REGIONAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  In Slovakia's November 26 regional 
elections, center-right governmental parties won the 
majority of seats in six out of eight regional parliaments; 
opposition parties Smer and HZDS won in two.  Voter turnout 
-- only 18 percent - fell below predictions.  Ruling 
coalition parties won 206 seats of the 412 total, while the 
opposition took 126 seats.  The Christian Democratic Party 
(KDH) with 87 seats (an increase of 52) was far and away 
the biggest winner, followed by opposition Smer with 70 (an 
increase of 41), and Prime Minister Dzurinda's SDKU with 64 
4 
seats (an increase of 36).  Vladimir Meciar's HZDS suffered 
a crushing defeat in all regions, winning only 48 seats, 
where before it held 191.  The Party of the Hungarian 
Coalition (SMK) ended up with 58 seats (a decrease of 26), 
and lost its dominance in the Nitra region due to the ad 
hoc "Slovak coalition" (KDH, SDKU, HZDS, Smer, SNS) and won 
only 17 seats (vice its previous 30). SMK's position was 
weakened in Banska Bystrica and Kosice regions, too.  All 
eight of the regional governorships  will have to be 
contested again in a two person runoff election December 
10.  Smer and its coalition partners are poised to take 6 
of these Zupan positions.  END SUMMARY. 
 
HUNGARIAN RANKS WEAKENED 
------------------------ 
 
2.  (SBU)  The Hungarian SMK party lost 26 seats nation- 
wie, and now holds 58.  In the Nitra region, where the 
Hungarian minority makes up 30 percent of the population, 
SMK was crushed by a strong counter-coalition of Slovak 
parties, whose only stated goal was to deprive SMK of its 
majority.  SMK interlocutors have been telling us for the 
past year that Hungarians are disillusioned with the 
behavior of local politicians and would turn out in lower 
numbers than in the past.  Indeed, SMK voters -- usually 
loyal to their party  turned out in similarly poor numbers 
in other regions, decreasing SMK's ranks in the Banska 
Bystrica and Kosice regions as well. 
 
3.  (SBU)  SMK reps were accused of nepotism and non- 
transparent decisions in the Nitra region prior to the 
elections, and all their decisions were blocked by Zupan 
Milan Belica (HZDS).  Prior to the election, 
representatives from HZD, SDKU, SMK and Smer told us Belica 
was obstructionist and uncooperative both with the regional 
parliament and the mayors of the region.  Nonetheless, he 
will likely win the second run-off election as ethnic 
Slovak parties unite to defeat the SMK candidate.  SMK, 
fearing another Belica administration, withdrew their 
candidate in favor of the third-place finisher, SDKU's Jan 
Greso, in the hopes of splitting the "Slovak" vote and 
removing Belica from office. 
 
HZDS CONTINUES TO SELF-DESTRUCT 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  HZDS suffered another hard blow and won only 48 
seats in regional parliaments, compared to 191 in the past 
term.  Meciar's strategy to isolate Smer and make 
coalitions with governmental parties further disintegrated 
the confused HZDS electorate.  Meciar still has four 
candidates in the game for the second run-off, but his 
attempt to test the coalition potential with center-right 
parties with an eye to the 2006 parliamentary elections 
failed badly.  HZDS is left without a single seat in the 
Presov and Bratislava regions, and with only one seat in 
Kosice.  HZDS loyalists blame defectors from the party, who 
either ran as independents or under the banners of other 
parties.  Meciar was admitted to the hospital in early 
November with pneumonia, and has not made any statements 
yet.  HZDS deputy chairman Viliam Veteska has reluctantly 
admitted failure and hinted publicly at the need to 
reorganize the part.  There has not been a specific call 
for change in the HZDS leadership yet, though the party 
decay is evident.  Other analysts think that HZDS failed 
because of its status as a "one man show," focused on 
consolidating power within the party while losing voters to 
Smer and SNS. 
 
CENTER RIGHT PARTIES FARE WELL 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU)  The low turnout did not harm the center-right 
parties (as pollsters had predicted).  Before the 
elections, the SDKU party secretary said the party had 
given up and "wasn't trying" hard, because it felt that 
center-right parties were disadvantaged because of their 
 
 
status as "urban" parties.  SDKU's strong performance in 
Presov region, in particular, was surprising to the party. 
Oddly enough, KDH was successful in all coalitions in which 
they paired with opposition Smer.  This may portend 
coalition possibilities after parliamentary elections. 
Several KDH leaders have told us in recent months that if 
Smer chairman Robert Fico becomes Prime Minister, it is 
better to co-govern and preserve the reforms than to go to 
the opposition and watch the reforms be undone. 
 
NO ROMA ELECTED TO REGIONAL PARLIAMENTS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU)  Despite a well-financed and thorough campaign by 
the National Democratic Institute (NDI) to develop Roma 
politicians for regional parliament positions, none of the 
Roma candidates was successful on election day. 
 
COMMENT: VOTER TURNOUT COULD BE ISSUE NEXT YEAR 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
7.  (SBU)  The exceptionally low turnout in regional 
elections is evident of the poor information and lack of 
get-out-the-vote campaigns, magnified by an electorate 
confused by the plethora of "unnatural" -- and often 
controversial -- coalitions.  As a result, most Slovak 
voters from across the entire political spectrum chose the 
"I have nobody to vote for" defense and stayed home on a 
cold and snowy election day.  The 18 percent turnout also 
reflects voter disillusionment over recent political 
scandals, which were often connected with corruption and 
rarely resolved. 
 
8.  (SBU)  COMMENT, Cont'd:  The low voter turnout is a 
clear warning about the unreliability of the Slovak 
electorate - a serious matter for parties only 10 months 
away from national elections.  Due to the low turnout and 
lack of clear party programs, it remains difficult to 
speculate with any accuracy about the strength of 
individual parties in the upcoming parliamentary elections. 
END COMMENT. 
 
A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS 
--------------------- 
 
9.  (U)  The following is a list of leading Zupan 
candidates who will face each other in run-off elections 
December 10, along with percentages of the vote each 
received in the November 26 balloting.  The list also 
includes number of seats in regional parliaments won by the 
major coalitions and the percentage of voter turnout: 
 
Bratislava region 
----------------- 
Zupan: 
Vladimir Bajan (Independent but supported by Smer-SF-HZD- 
KDH), 41 percent 
Lubo Roman (SDKU-ANO-SMK-DS-SZS), 31 percent 
 
Parliament: 
SDKU-ANO-SMK-DS-SZS (center-right): 27 
Smer-SF-HZD(center-left):           11 
KDH (Christian Democrats):     6 
OKS (Civic-Cons. Party):        2 
Indpendent Forum    2 
Independent                    2 
 
Voter turnout: 14.45 percent 
 
Trnava region 
------------- 
Zupan: 
Jozef Klokner (KDH-SDKU-DS), 33 percent 
Jozef Mikus (HZDS-LB-ZSNS-PSNS), 26 percent 
 
Parliament: 
KDH-SDKU-DS: 15 
SMK:         15 
HZDS-LB-ZSNS-SNS:      3 
Smer-HZD-SF-ANO:      2 
Independent:           5 
 
Voter turnout: 14.5 percent 
 
Nitra region 
------------ 
Zupan: 
Milan Belica (HZDS-ZSNS-ASV-KSS-LB-PSNS), 42 percent 
Laszlo Szigeti (SMK), 26 percent 
 
 
Parliament: 
KDH-HZDS-SDKU-Smer-SNS: 34 
SMK:                    17 
ANO-HZD-SF:              1 
 
Voter turnout: 27.67 percent 
 
Trencin region 
 
 
Trencin region 
-------------- 
Zupan: 
Miroslav Chovanec (Smer-KDH-SNS-HZD-SF), 35 percent 
Pavol Sedlacek (HZDS-ANO-PSNS-ZSNS), 28 percent 
 
Parliament: 
Smer-KDH-SNS-HZD-SF: 21 
HZDS-ANO-PSNS-ZSNS:  20 
Independent:          3 
 
Voter turnout: 12.3 percent 
 
Zilina region 
------------- 
Zupan 
Juraj Blanar (Smer-SNS-ANO-HZD), 30 percent 
Jozef Tarcak (HZDS-PSNS-ZSNS), 29 percent 
 
Parliament: 
KDH-SDKU-DS: 31 
Smer-SNS-ANO-HZD: 15 
HZDS-PSNS-SNS:  5 
Independent:  5 
OKS:  1 
 
Voter turnout: 15.69 percent 
 
Banska Bystrica region 
---------------------- 
Zupan: 
Milan Murgas (Smer-SNS-HZD-KDH-SZS), 39 percent 
Jozef Mikus  (SDKU-DS), 21 percent 
 
Parliament: 
Smer-SNS-HZD: 18 
HZDS-KSS-PSNS-ZSNS: 9 
SDKU-KDH-DS:        9 
SMK:        8 
Independent:        5 
 
Voter turnout: 18.65 percent 
 
Kosice region 
------------- 
Zdenko Trebula (HZD-Smer), 30 percent 
Rudolf Bauer (KDH-OKS), 27 percent 
 
Parliament: 
KDH-OKS: 13 
SMK: 13 
Smer-HZD: 12 
Independent:  7 
SDKU-DS-SZS:  6 
ANO: 2 
SRS: 2 
HZDS: 1 
SOS: 1 
 
 
SRS: QQ2 
HZDS: QQ1 
SOS: QQ1 
 
Voter turnout: 19.27 percent 
 
Presov region 
------------- 
Zupan: 
Peter Chudik (Smer-SNS-HZD), 40 percent 
Dusan Hruska (KDH-SDKU-DS), 28 percent 
 
Parliament: 
KDH-SDKU-DS: 40 
Independent: 12 
Smer-SNS-HZD:  9 
ANO:  1 
 
Voter turnout: 19.47 percent 
 
 
VALLEE 
 
LEE 
 
 
NNNN