US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4748

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004748 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S DECEMBER 3 LOCAL ELECTIONS: THEMES AND 
TRENDS 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 4646 
     B. TAIPEI 4633 
     C. TAIPEI 4632 
     D. TAIPEI 4627 
     E. TAIPEI 4602 
     F. TAIPEI 4599 
     G. TAIPEI 4598 
     H. TAIPEI 4586 
     I. TAIPEI 4553 
     J. TAIPEI 4552 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Following highly negative campaigns by both 
major parties, Taiwan voters go to the polls Saturday 
December 3 to elect magistrates and mayors in 23 counties and 
cities.  The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has capitalized on a 
series of corruption scandals surrounding President Chen and 
the contrasting clean image of KMT party chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou and is playing the elections as the opening of 
Ma,s campaign to &win back Taiwan8 for the KMT in the 2008 
presidential election.  President Chen and the ruling 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are counterattacking on 
corruption issues, zeroing in on individual KMT candidates, 
especially Chou Hsi-wei in the critical Taipei County race. 
When the smoke clears, the DPP hopes to &maintain the status 
quo,8 while the KMT expects gains at the expense of the 
ruling party, with both parties focusing most intently on 
Taipei County.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) On December 3 Taiwan voters go to the polls to elect 
county magistrates, city majors and lower level 
representatives in 23 counties and cities (except in Taipei 
and Kaohsiung Cities, which hold elections next year).  The 
theme for this year's elections was set when an unexpected 
riot by Thai workers at the Kaohsiung Mass Rapid Transit 
project August 21-22 led to charges of corruption and 
cover-up at top levels in the DPP government.  The KMT has 
campaigned almost exclusively on the corruption theme, the 
DPP is now repaying in kind, and the discussion of issues has 
vanished.  Negative campaigning and scandal mongering by both 
parties are turning off swing voters. 
 
Chen Shui-bian Versus Ma Ying-jeou 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou are both stepping up 
their campaign activities, generating considerable media 
publicity for local candidates as well as for themselves. 
Due to the DPP,s corruption scandals, President Chen is no 
longer the drawing card he once was, however, and some 
candidates and local officials have even said that they view 
Chen as &poison at the box office.8  KMT candidates, on the 
other hand, are capitalizing on Ma,s reputation for personal 
integrity and their expectation that Ma will be the next 
president.  Posters displaying Ma together with local KMT 
candidates are extremely common in most districts, while we 
have observed no similar posters of Chen with DPP candidates. 
 Ma Ying-jeou,s visits have made a difference in some 
districts, according to AIT,s contacts. 
 
The KMT Trying to Stay on the Attack 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) The KMT is trying to keep the public focus on DPP 
corruption and ineffectiveness, the issues which put the DPP 
on the defensive in the first place.  The KMT and its 
supporters have been working to exacerbate the existing 
scandal involving former senior presidential advisor Chen 
Che-nan, but the public may be growing weary of this aging 
story.  National Security Council (NSC) Secretary General 
Chiou I-jen suggested to the Director that the Kaohsiung 
Prosecutor's indictment of Chen Che-nan for breach of trust 
(not corruption) on November 21 will diminish the 
effectiveness of the KMT attacks and help stop the decline in 
public support for the DPP.  To drive home its election 
theme, the KMT held a large-scale &anti-corruption8 march 
and rally on November 27 in Taipei City where there is no 
election but there are many KMT supporters and much media 
coverage. 
 
The DPP Counterattack 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The initial DPP response to KMT attacks was to 
present the December 3 elections as local contests between 
individual candidates rather than as a KMT-DPP showdown. 
Extensive media coverage of the Kaohsiung metro scandal 
persuaded many potential voters that the DPP was the problem, 
however.  In Taipei County, for example, many analysts said 
that popular DPP candidate Luo Wen-jia could be dragged to 
defeat by public dissatisfaction over DPP corruption.  As a 
result, the DPP is now turning the tables on the KMT, 
focusing on corruption allegations involving individual KMT 
candidates and a more general charge that the KMT has always 
been corrupt, as demonstrated by the massive 1991 Lafayette 
frigate scandal, and is still corrupt despite Ma Ying-jeou. 
It is too early to say how effective this new strategy will 
be, but it is clearly influencing some key races.  In Taipei 
County, Luo Wen-jia has virtually closed the gap with KMT 
candidate Chou Hsi-wei by zeroing in relentlessly on Chou,s 
alleged use of political influence to gain special breaks in 
financial dealings.  Chou,s exceedingly weak responses to 
the attacks, including a crying episode at a campaign 
appearance, seem to have played into the hands of Luo, who 
has come across as a stronger leader. 
 
6.  (C) DPP officials are worried that significant numbers of 
DPP supporters may choose not to vote on December 3, either 
out of discouragement over charges of DPP corruption or 
because they want to &teach a lesson8 to party leaders, 
especially President Chen.  In order to mobilize its base and 
bring out the vote, the DPP has accelerated its campaign 
tempo, with party leaders holding several major rallies per 
day throughout the island, including a series of large-scale 
rallies on the &super-Sunday8 preceding the election 
(November 27).  In addition to the core theme of KMT 
corruption, DPP leaders, especially President Chen, sometimes 
strike other standard party themes as well, for example, that 
the DPP is the defender of Taiwan,s interests against 
opposition politicians who would sell out to China and that 
the DPP faithful must rally around the party in crisis.  In 
the final days prior to the elections, Chen,s strong 
campaign rhetoric could have an effect in some districts, 
increasing participation by the party's base voters. 
 
KMT and DPP Hopes and Expectations 
---------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The KMT and DPP each expect to retain control of core 
districts in their respective base areas, the KMT in the 
north and the DPP in the south.  AIT,s contacts and other 
political observers here expect the DPP to suffer net losses 
of perhaps one to three districts on December 3.  The KMT is 
focused above all on wresting control from the DPP of 
&super-battleground8 Taipei County, which has about sixteen 
percent of Taiwan,s total population.  A substantial number 
of races, including Taipei County, remain close, and the 
large numbers of undecided voters coupled with the effects of 
final campaign surges, particularly by the DPP, make it 
difficult to predict the final results.  NSC Secretary 
General Chiou I-jen told the Director that President Chen 
thinks the DPP can win ten races and maintain the &status 
quo.8  The DPP focus is on the critical race in Taipei 
County, Chiou added, because if the DPP loses Taipei County, 
the feeling will be that the DPP has lost the elections even 
if the party wins ten districts.  KMT Central Committee 
Secretary General Chan Chuen-po told AIT that according to 
 
SIPDIS 
the party's internal polling, KMT candidates currently enjoy 
stable leads in seven counties and cities, DPP candidates 
have stable leads in only three counties and cities, and 
there are eleven close races. 
 
8.  (C) The following list represents a composite view of the 
current status of the December 3 elections, based on 
estimates from AIT,s DPP and KMT contacts and other 
observers. 
 
DPP Leading: 
 
Chiayi County 
Tainan County 
Tainan City 
Kaohsiung County 
Pingtung County 
 
KMT Leading: 
 
Taoyuan County 
Hsinchu County 
Hsinchu City 
Taichung County 
Taichung City 
Hualien County 
Taitung County 
 
DPP Leaning: 
 
Yunlin County 
 
KMT Leaning: 
 
Miaoli County 
Nantou County 
Chiayi City 
Penghu County 
 
Up for Grabs: 
 
Taipei County 
Ilan County 
Changhua County 
Keelung City 
 
Note: This list excludes Kinmen and Matsu, governed by 
pan-Blue New Party and People First Party (PFP) magistrates 
respectively.  In Taitung County, the KMT candidate, who is 
appealing his corruption conviction, is running as an 
independent.  In Keelung City, the DPP candidate withdrew in 
favor of the Taiwan Solidarity Union candidate, who is 
running against KMT and PFP opponents.  End Note. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) While these are local elections, observers here view 
them as a major test of strength between the present DPP 
leader, President Chen, and the presumed 2008 KMT 
presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou.  The victor will be 
assessed by two measures: which party wins the largest single 
prize, Taipei County magistrate; and whether or not the KMT 
meets pre-election expectations for a significant gain at the 
expense of the DPP in the total number of magistrate and 
mayoral seats it occupies. 
 
Paal