US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4746

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004746 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY:  REPLACES TAIPEI 4774 
 
DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT:  CHIAYI MAYORAL RACE HEATS UP IN LAST WEEK 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  In a mayoral race touted by the press 
and southern political observers as one of the most 
important for the DPP during the 3 in 1 elections, nervous 
campaigners on both sides in Chiayi City have turned to 
negative campaigning and vote buying to lure the 30 percent 
of critical undecided voters.  President Chen leads the mud- 
slinging for 3 days in the pan-green camp in an attempt to 
spur a crisis mentality among the depressed deep-green 
voters.   Despite signs that the KMT candidate has a 
substantial lead, the KMT cannot rest easy in this deep 
Green heartland.  End summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  For DPP operatives in Chiayi City the mayoral 
election finally have moved into their comfort zone -- the 
high tension, big stakes, last few days of campaigning in 
what appears to many outsiders to be an unwinnable race for 
the DPP.   Although they previously worried that local 
appearances by President Chen could poison their candidate's 
chances, the DPP has now fallen back on what they know best: 
creating a crisis to which DPP voters can respond.  Their 
new campaign slogan, repeated as a daily mantra, is that a 
win for the KMT in Chiayi City will return Taiwan to the 
hands of mainland China.  The purpose of this negative 
image, DPP campaigners told AIT/K,  is to motivate the 
depressed "deep green" voters, who are unlikely to vote if 
they don't feel the island is under mortal threat.  They 
estimate if they can spur even five percent out of their 
lethargy and into voting booths on December 3, then the 
election is theirs.  With an election turnout at 65 percent, 
they speculate, the DPP is likely to win.  If the turnout is 
more than 70 percent, they say they can claim a sure 
victory. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Circumspect KMT officials in Chiayi City revealed 
their own polls that show KMT candidate Huang Min-hui 15 
percent ahead of DPP candidate incumbent mayor Chen Li-zhen. 
The KMT claims the DPP is overly optimistic if they believe 
their polls showing Mayor Chen just three points behind 
Huang.  DPP officials told AIT/K that polls are meaningless 
because the DPP is always behind in polls, but they always 
win elections.  It is exactly this history of DPP success 
that keeps KMT officials nervous.  Despite all the polls and 
word of mouth that place Huang in the lead, both KMT and DPP 
officials believe that a DPP win still is possible. 
 
4.  (SBU)  DPP officials who previously hoped the scandal- 
ridden President Chen would skip Chiayi City are now 
comfortable with his 3 day presence (November 28, 29 and 
December 1) and his message because the tone and timing are 
just right to communicate a crisis.  Chiayi City political 
observers note that incumbent mayor Chen is known widely as 
less than a stellar campaigner and desperately needs the 
President's help at this point.  She does not like negative 
campaigning and her less than amiable persona has made it 
doubly hard for the DPP to package her against such a 
seasoned and likeable campaigner like the KMT's Huang. 
President Chen's willingness to raise his voice, denounce 
the KMT for its past and present, and threaten the voters 
with the potential loss of the island is just what Chiayi 
City deep-green voters need, say DPP campaigners, to get the 
deep-green base out to vote.  Interestingly, these deep- 
green voters are not staying home just because they are 
disillusioned by recent DPP scandals.  More importantly, one 
of the beleaguered deep-green independence leaders told 
AIT/K, they have been "heart-stricken" because President 
Chen's administration has not moved forward on promises of 
Taiwan independence.  They perceive there is no one left to 
vote for who will move their agenda any closer to reality. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Although KMT campaigners in Chiayi City couldn't 
say if Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou will be down to stand beside candidate Huang in 
the last days leading up to the election, they did stress 
that being the "opposition party" in Chiayi City offers them 
some extra votes.  While most people see Chiayi City as the 
cradle of Taiwan's democracy, they noted, it's really a 
"cradle of opposition," in which challenging authority is a 
local attitude.  Even without a visit by Chairman Ma, they 
are hoping to turn that sentiment to their advantage by 
pounding on the DPP's failure to deliver as a ruling party. 
However, their candidate, who is running on her own merit 
rather than as a KMT party faithful, is leaving the negative 
campaign messages to her campaign officials.  Instead she is 
using her campaign hours to work her exceptionally strong 
grassroots base of voters who not only devotedly enjoy her 
time with them, but trust her effectiveness since she has 
been delivering excellent services to constituents as a 
legislative yuan member. 
 
6.  (SBU)  AIT/K heard accusations of massive vote-buying 
from both sides in this mayoral race.  The only thing they 
two sides had in common was the price of a vote, which is 
going at NT 3,000 for a "party slate" vote in which the 
seller agrees to vote for party candidates in the mayoral 
and city council elections.  One TSU-aligned political 
observer told AIT/K a voter would have to hide this week to 
avoid being approached by a "good friend" to secure his/her 
vote.   Although vote buyers, claimed this interlocutor, 
expect delivery on only 30 percent of purchases, that 30 
percent is critical in an election this close.  Besides, he 
said, "it comforts the candidates" to know that, if nothing 
else, 
there is a 30 percent cushion out there to shore them up. 
 
7. (SBU)  Comment:  There is no question that the Chiayi 
City's DPP has come back to life in the last few days before 
the election.  While there is no guarantee the negative 
message they are pushing will mobilize traumatized deep- 
green voters, DPP campaigners express confidence they still 
can beat the KMT here in the heartland of the party.  The 
planned three day visit of the President indicates just how 
nervous the DPP is about the significant damage a KMT win in 
Chiayi City could visit on its future prospects in Southern 
Taiwan.  End comment. 
 
THIELE 
 
PAAL