US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1801

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001801 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN GOVERNOR LOSES FAITH IN VP 
 
REF: LAGOS 1573 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  Once an ardent supporter of Vice President 
Atiku, Abia State Governor Orji Kalu said Vice President 
Atiku's chances for capturing the PDP presidential nomination 
had diminished substantially.  He claimed the President was 
ruthlessly choking pro-Atiku governors economically, and 
efforts among governors to unify around the VP were now 
futile. Forever ambitious, Kalu was sanguine about his 
chances for somehow emerging from the turmoil to become the 
dark horse.  He also said popular frustration with the 
country's continuing poverty was on the verge of erupting, 
and he did not discount the possibility of civil disturbances 
or of a military intervention.  End Summary. 
 
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VP's Support Base is Eroding 
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2.  (C)  Much of this October 29 was vintage Kalu:  asperity 
in his critique of President Obasanjo and gasconade about his 
own nationwide popularity.  However one thing was new. 
Previously Kalu had been a bit of a stalking-horse for VP 
Atiku.  Now that Atiku is on the skein, it appears Kalu is 
selling off his stocks in Atiku's future.  Previously an 
outspoken supporter of Vice President Atiku, Kalu downplayed 
the VP's chances of succeeding the President.  He said that 
the President retained hopes of a third term and that 
Obasanjo was on a mission to obliterate all opponents to this 
goal.  Given that Obasanjo's goal allows no space for Atiku 
as a running mate let alone a presidential candidate, the 
Vice President is clearly Obasanjo's number one target. 
Obasanjo will thus venture to great length to weaken Atiku 
directly or weaken him indirectly by hog-tying his 
supporters. Kalu alleged a conscious campaign to frustrate 
the economic interests of governors who had openly supported 
the VP.  He angrily noted that no pro-Atiku governor had been 
allowed to control the recent issuance of membership cards 
during the membership registration exercise for the ruling 
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in their respective states. 
This insult coupled with the PDP's pro-Obasanjo national 
secretariat seizing control of the party's state executive 
 
SIPDIS 
caused Kalu to skip the latest round of state party 
congresses.  In a rare moment of defeatism, Kalu said he was 
considering leaving the PDP for a new party.  (Comment: 
Since this conversation, we have learned that Kalu has 
overtured the Igbo-based APGA political party, the party 
which probably has the most genuine grassroots support in 
southeastern Nigeria.  End comment.) 
 
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President Still Contemplating Third Term 
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3.  (C)  Kalu felt Obasanjo's intention was to retain his 
office "by any means necessary."  He said an attempted 
constitutional amendment would be the preferred route, but he 
mentioned imposing a state of emergency as another 
possibility should the legal means not yield the desired 
political end. 
 
4.  (C)  Kalu observed that Obasanjo's quest for a third term 
would be disastrous.  Meanwhile the poor were getting poorer, 
the dearth of money in the system was strangulating 
businesses not tied to Obasanjo or his allies, and the 
consequent frustrations were being felt nationwide, 
particularly in the military, who do not regularly receive 
salary and who know their retired brethren receive their 
pension at irregular intervals.  Kalu concluded that 
Obasanjo's financial reforms were a distraction to disguise 
his real intention of establishing an economy that 
superficially looked more liberal but in actuality was more 
tightly controlled by the President and his business coterie. 
 Kalu said he would not be surprised at a "violent backlash," 
and he intimated there was growing support among many 
Nigerians for military intervention. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Abia State Governor Considers Presidential Bid 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  (C)  Despite his notorious differences with Obasanjo, 
Kalu felt his own chances of somehow emerging with the 
Presidential grail were good.  He said the current political 
dialogue and unity between the South-South and South-East 
geopolitical zones would result in a consensus candidate that 
would compel northern states to accept another southerner as 
President, and he had strong support in both areas.  He said 
the two regions were treating a vice presidency as "fluff" 
and would not accept less than the Presidency.  No other Igbo 
governor had enough national exposure to match him in the 
South-East, he estimated.  The only South-South competition 
he saw would come from Rivers State Governor Odili, whom he 
believed was extremely unpopular because of his strongly 
pro-Obasanjo stance.  He predicted the current front runners, 
including Obasanjo, Atiku, Babangida, and Marwa, would create 
a stalemate from which the South-East / South-South consensus 
candidate could emerge triumphant.  He also claimed a good 
rapport with Northern elites who would find him to be an 
acceptable candidate.  "I am as popular in the North as I am 
in Abia," Kalu beamed.  (Comment:  Depending on how you gauge 
Kalu's popularity at home - some say he is, some say he is 
not - this was either conscious self-adoration or unwitting 
feint praise.  End comment). 
 
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Comment 
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6.  (C)  Kalu looked tired from internal party squabbles.  He 
was more low key than in previous meetings.  If he had not 
already done so, he appeared ready to sever his umbilicus to 
Vice President Atiku.  Kalu was objective and probably 
correct in reading that the cards are stacked against the VP. 
 However, he seemed the captive of wishful thinking in 
concluding that the deck would somehow reshuffle in a manner 
that, after all cards were dealt, he would be holding the 
strongest hand.  Right now he is losing control of the PDP 
apparatus in his state.  His ability to claim the ultimate 
prize is slimmer still.  His certainty regarding a southern 
presidency would appear to be bravado in the face of 
increasing odds against, and his references to a possible 
coup additionally point to the desperation of the moment. 
End Comment. 
BROWNE