US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4901

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 004901 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, KDEM, KE 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KIBAKI BANS ORANGE RALLIES AND MULLS 
CABINET CONTENDERS 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 4878 
 
     B. NAIROBI 4838 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for 
reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Kenya's government banned November 27 
planned nationwide rallies organized by the Orange Democratic 
Movement on the grounds the opposition gatherings pose "a 
threat to national security."  The rallies had been called to 
build support for the Orange Democratic Movement and bolster 
their calls for early elections, which the government 
steadfastly refuses to accept.  President Kibaki is expected 
to announce his new Cabinet imminently.  Kibaki's inclusion 
of Orange leaders in the new Cabinet would speed the process 
of national reconciliation.  Their exclusion risks deepening 
political divisions and the derailment of the reform process 
in Kenya.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Government Restricts Freedom of Assembly 
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2.  (U)  During a mass thanksgiving gathering held by the 
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in Nairobi November 26, 
Orange leaders announced plans to hold similar rallies around 
the country.  The rallies would serve to reward voters who 
rejected the draft constitution as well as to garner support 
for the ODM's calls for the dissolution of Parliament to 
bring about early elections.  The government was quick to 
respond by banning all future Orange rallies.  Vice-President 
Moody Awori stated November 27 the government &considers 
this call for nationwide rallies inappropriate and a threat 
to national security.8  Awori, trying to distance the 
government from the resounding defeat of the draft 
constitution, further stated that the results of the 
referendum in no way should be construed to be an assessment 
of government performance and therefore &there is no 
reason8 for fresh elections. 
 
3. (C)  The government decision sparked protest from the ODM 
as being in violation of Kenyans' right to assembly. 
Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo told Poloff November 28 the latest 
announcement was further evidence of the government "trying 
to become dictators."  He argued that the reasoning given, 
that the planned Orange meetings around the country to thank 
voters for their support had the potential to become violent, 
was simply wrong, highlighting the calm manner of Nairobi's 
huge rally.  Orange leaders declared the government,s ban 
illegal and have indicated their intent to continue with the 
planned rallies, currently scheduled to begin December 10. 
 
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ODM In Need of Clear Leadership 
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4.  (U)  Awori offered no details on acknowledged government 
plans to consult with the ODM regarding a new constitution or 
government.  Despite their calls for reconciliation and 
national healing, Orange leaders sent contradictory messages 
about their willingness to cooperate with the President. 
During the November 26 rally, former Roads Minister Raila 
Odinga was adamant that they are &not interested in 
negotiations8 but rather want fresh elections.  At that same 
rally, former Environment Minister Kalonzo Musyoka invited 
the President to negotiate with them.  Further complicating 
the ODM,s ability to effectively negotiate with the 
government is its apparent lack of a defined leadership 
structure.  While there are several outspoken leaders of the 
ODM (mostly LDP and KANU party leaders), no unified 
leadership structure has yet been developed.  This may be due 
in part to the challenge of binding together the unlikely 
bedfellows who joined forces to defeat the proposed 
constitution.  However, such cohesion within the movement is 
necessary as the ODM leaders insist the movement will only 
re-enter government as a team, rather than on an individual 
basis.  Indeed, they signed an agreement to that effect. 
 
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Elections, Power-sharing, and a New Constitution - Quickly 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
5.  (C)  Former National Heritage Minister Najib Balala 
confirmed this strategy November 25 to the DCM.  Balala said 
 
the ODM plans to demand a specific timetable for a new 
constitution and snap elections.  They want a commitment to 
produce a new constitution within three months of the 
reconvening of Parliament, (not expected now until March 
2006).  The ODM seeks fresh elections; however, if that is 
not possible, they want a "proper government" formed in 
consultation with the ODM.  Balala agreed that reconciliation 
is important but insisted that there will be no change in the 
ODM,s position as they believe their stand was ratified by 
the majority of Kenyan voters. 
 
6. (C)  COMMENT:  President Kibaki may find any attempts to 
reach out to and incorporate the ODM leaders into a new 
Cabinet extremely difficult in the absence of a clear leader 
of the ODM who can negotiate on behalf of the team.  Kibaki 
is expected to announce his new Cabinet presently.  The 
individuals selected to join his government will reveal much 
about how Kibaki plans to chart the course ahead.  The ODM's 
agitation for snap elections will likely increase to a fever 
pitch should the President exclude ODM leaders from Cabinet 
positions and continue to resist calls to dissolve Parliament 
to initiate fresh elections.  The ban on ODM rallies is a 
disturbing restriction on the freedom of association, betrays 
a conflation of ruling party and national interests, and 
risks further alienating the ODM and current fence-sitters 
from the government. 
BELLAMY