US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN2074

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 002074 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (BRYZA), PLEASE PASS USAID 
NSC FOR MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S REFERENDUM: INFLATED TURNOUT, OBSERVERS 
CRITICAL 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary and Comment 
------------------- 
 
1.  (C) Official results for voter turnout contrast sharply 
with those reported by opposition and some independent local 
observers for Armenia's November 27 referendum on 
constitutional amendments.  The 14-member group of observers 
from the Council of Europe -- the only international 
observers accredited for this referendum -- also noted the 
discrepancy between reported results and apparent lack of 
turnout and, in a press statement issued on November 28, 
declared that "the abuses that marred the referendum were 
against the intent and interest of the Armenian people." 
(Full text at para 11.)  Armenia's Central Election 
Commission (CEC) reported voter turnout at 64.4 percent, far 
above the minimum participation required for the results to 
be considered valid.  Preliminary CEC reports showed more 
than 93 percent of those who cast ballots voted "yes." 
Opposition groups claimed that turnout was less than 17 
percent and are calling for citizens to protest in Yerevan on 
the afternoon of November 28.  Informally, Council of Europe 
observers expressed their belief that the fraud was 
unnecessary; there would probably have been enough "yes" 
votes to win the day.  In general, conduct of the ballot was 
mostly without incident, but there were reports of 
intimidation of opposition observers. 
 
2.  (C) The opposition has sought all along to use this 
ballot as a referendum on the legitimacy of the Kocharian 
government.  Opposition leaders are calling for rally in 
Yerevan to protest the results.  Aram Sargsian, leader of the 
radical opposition "Republic" party, has gone much further, 
calling for revolution.  Because the opposition remains so 
fractured, the November 28 protest will almost certainly not 
pose a threat to the Kocharian government.  But should the 
government overreact to the protest, as it did in 2004, it 
could unify the opposition and create the very problem it 
seeks to avoid.  Given that there was no large-scale OSCE 
observer mission, the facts are difficult to determine.  If 
pressed, we suggest using points similar to those at para 12. 
 End Summary. 
 
Referendum Gets Full Government Campaign 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Armenia conducted a national referendum on November 
27.  The only issue on the ballot was the approval of 
amendments to the Constitution.  While far from perfect, the 
amendments would bring about greater separation of powers and 
provide for a more independent judiciary.  The final draft of 
these amendments won the qualified approval of the Council of 
Europe's Venice Commission.  After a slow start, the GOAM 
pulled out all the stops to promote a "yes" vote. 
 
Few International Observers 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  Despite repeated approaches, the GOAM refused to invite 
any international observers other than those from the Council 
of Europe.  The only group of international observers 
accredited was a 14-member delegation made up of members of 
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) 
and the CoE's Congress of Local and Regional Authorities. 
Delegation members arrived in Armenia no earlier than 
November 24 and met with GOAM leaders and with members of the 
opposition and civil society.  (Note: The Embassy also 
provided significant support to the delegation.  End note.) 
 
Inflated Urban Voter Turnout 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Throughout the day on November 27, credible reports 
of inflated voter turnout, particularly in Yerevan, called 
into serious question the vote tallies being reported by the 
Central Election Commission.  Anecdotal reports of turnout in 
rural polling stations described precincts crowded with 
villagers and a holiday atmosphere reminiscent of the best 
Soviet traditions.  When observers visited polling stations 
in Yerevan, they saw few voters but full ballot boxes. 
 
6.  (C) Voting day rallies were poorly attended.  Both the 
"yes" campaign and the opposition called for supporters to 
turn out to competing venues in downtown Yerevan, but just as 
with the referendum itself, turnout was meager.  At its peak, 
Embassy security officers estimated turnout at the opposition 
rally at 600 - 700. 
 
Fractured Opposition Calls for Revolution 
----------------------------------------- 
7.  (C) In a clear signal of its fractured nature, the 
opposition held several press conferences during the evening 
of November 27, disparaging the conduct of the referendum and 
calling for supporters to rally in Yerevan on the afternoon 
of November 28.  Aram Sargsian, president of the radical 
opposition Republic party went furthest, declaring that "the 
revolution begins with a phone call, the revolution begins 
tomorrow."  Sargsian dared the mostly government-aligned 
television stations covering the press conference to air his 
call to action. 
 
Council of Europe Criticism ... 
------------------------------- 
 
8.  (U) The CoE observers held a press conference the 
afternoon of November 28 and released a statement which 
criticized strongly both the government's decision not to 
invite other international observers and the opposition's 
decision to withdraw from electoral commissions.  The CoE 
statement declared that "the Referendum generally reflected 
the free will of those who voted.  However, on voting day the 
observers witnessed serious abuse in several polling stations 
which cast a shadow over the credibility of the officially 
announced turn-out." 
 
... But Not a Unanimous Condemnation of the Ballot 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
9.  (C) Toward the end of the press conference, however, Lord 
John Tomlinson, a UK member of the CoE delegation made a 
"personal statement" which blunted the effect of the 
delegation's official statement.  He stated that while he was 
"absolutely" certain that the government's turnout figure of 
1.4 million was a fabrication, he was equally certain that 
turnout exceeded the 750,000 required for a "yes" vote to be 
valid.  Journalists questioned how Tomlinson could come to 
such a judgment after having visited only 15 polling 
stations. 
Local Observers Report due November 29 
-------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) The domestic observer group "It's Your Choice" (IYC) 
deployed 1,200 observers across Armenia.  While it has not 
yet compiled its findings, Harutyun Hambardzumian, IYC's 
president, expressed his disappointment at the conduct of the 
CoE observer delegation.  He claimed that CoE observers did 
not coordinate their activities with IYC nor did they share 
contact information.  Hambardzumian said that one IYC 
observer was assaulted while trying to report violations. 
(Note: CoE observers lamented that they saw few domestic 
observers at any of the polling stations they visited.  End 
Note.)  Hambardzumian rejected the voter turnout figures of 
both the government and the opposition, saying that he 
believes IYC's data will show the true turnout figures as 
falling somewhere in between.  IYC has scheduled a press 
conference for November 29. 
 
Council of Europe Press Statement 
--------------------------------- 
 
11.  (U) Begin text of Council of Europe Press Statement: 
 
The Council of Europe observers to the Constitutional 
Referendum held on 27 November 2005 in Armenia regret the 
decision taken by the authorities which precluded the 
attendance of any other international observers.  The 
transparency of the referendum was further hampered by the 
decision of the parliamentary opposition to call on their 
members to withdraw from the electoral commissions.  It is 
also regrettable that political pluralism inside polling 
stations was not better assisted by a greater number of 
domestic observers. 
 
The 14 member delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly and 
the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities noted that the 
Referendum generally reflected the free will of those who 
voted.  However, on voting day the observers witnessed 
serious abuse in several polling stations which cast a shadow 
over the credibility of the officially announced turn-out. 
 
On 25 and 26 November the delegation had meetings with the 
authorities, opposition members, NGOs, media representatives 
and the international community.  The observers' impression 
was that during the campaign leading to the Referendum there 
was not equal access to the media.  This was to the 
disadvantage of the opposition to the constitutional changes 
and hampered genuine democratic debate. 
 
The Council of Europe observers visited around 150 polling 
stations in the capital and across the country on voting day. 
 The general atmosphere was calm and no incidents of public 
disorder were witnessed.  In the majority of the polling 
stations visited the conduct of the poll was in compliance 
with international standards. 
 
However, in a significant number of polling stations in 
Yerevan and other regions this was not so.  The extremely low 
voting activity did not correspond to the high figures 
provided by the electoral commissions.  There were also clear 
instances of forged additional signatures on the voters 
register and of ballot stuffing.  The electoral regulations, 
requiring the stamping of the ballot after completion, 
created numerous situations where the secrecy of the vote was 
not respected.  Military voting appeared to lack the 
voluntarism which is the hallmark of democratic participation. 
 
In conclusion, the delegation considers that the abuses that 
marred the referendum were against the intent and interest of 
the Armenian people.  It expects that the Central Electoral 
Commission investigate thoroughly all the allegations brought 
to its attention and that all the necessary measures will be 
taken against those responsible for fraud. 
 
End Text. 
 
12.  (SBU) Begin Text of Recommended Press guidance: 
 
- We note the statement of the Observer Delegation of the 
Council of Europe calls into serious question the voter 
turnout figures reported by the government 
 
- We share their regret that the Government of Armenia chose 
not to invite observers from the OSCE's Office of Democratic 
Institutions and Human Rights.  A full complement of 
international observers, deployed for a longer period 
throughout the Republic of Armenia, would have given greater 
credibility to the results of the voting. 
 
- We note that the observer delegation statement reported 
serious abuses and allegations of fraud.  These allegations 
should be investigated. 
 
- It is clear that there is room for improvement in the 
voting process between now and the 2007 - 2008 parliamentary 
and presidential elections. 
 
- We are working closely with the Government of Armenia, 
political parties and with civil society to implement a 
package of democracy-building measures aimed at helping 
Armenia achieve free and fair elections in 2007 - 2008. 
EVANS