US embassy cable - 05MANILA5510

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 MANILA 005510 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR EAP, INR/EAP, AND EAP/MTS 
INR PASS TO DNI NEGROPONTE FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JONES 
USPACOM ALSO FOR FPA HUSO 
NSC FOR H. MORROW 
SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR ALLEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PINR, ASEC, OVIP, PINS, MOPS, MARR, PGOV, RP 
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE 
NEGROPONTE 
 
REF: MANILA 5433 
 
Classified By: (U) Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Paul W. Jones 
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (S/NF) Summary.  Comprehensive counterterrorism efforts 
-- ranging from the military to humanitarian to public 
diplomacy -- top the broad U.S. agenda in the Philippines' 
still struggling democracy.  In Manila, you will meet 
President Arroyo, former President Ramos, Executive Secretary 
Ermita, National Security Advisor Gonzales, National 
Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) Director Garcia, and 
a range of senior military and law enforcement officials. 
You should use your meetings to thank President Arroyo for 
her support against terrorism, to express support for 
democratic institutions, warning against emergency measures, 
and encourage progress in peace talks with the Moro Islamic 
Liberation Front (MILF).  The government needs to improve 
dramatically interagency cooperation, joint military 
coordination, and institutional reform of the police, 
military, and judiciary to win against the terrorists.  In 
the nearer term, it needs an anti-terrorism law, which is 
currently deadlocked in Congress.  RMAS' robust assistance 
has helped lead to major counterterrorism successes.  Your 
public remarks should underscore our increasingly successful 
partnership with the GRP on counterterrorism, our hopes for 
further peace and development in Muslim Mindanao in 
particular, and our support for democratic processes and rule 
of law.  President Arroyo continues to seek U.S. approval in 
her fight for political survival.  Focusing on our support 
for real substantive cooperation will ease her nerves, 
without identifying us too closely with a still-troubled 
Administration.  End Summary. 
 
COUNTERTERRORISM 
---------------- 
 
2.  (C) The list of problems faced by Philippines has changed 
little since your time here as Ambassador: corruption, 
ineffective governance, endemic and widespread poverty, weak 
democratic institutions and political parties, and challenges 
to law and order from ineffective military and police 
capabilities in the face of numerous insurgencies and 
terrorist movements.  At the top of our agenda, as reflected 
in our Mission Performance Plan, are our counterterrorism 
efforts.  Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) 
terrorists continue to elude government forces in Mindanao 
and the Sulu Archipelago, while the Communist Party of the 
Philippines/New Peoples' Army (CPP/NPA) maintains a 
country-wide presence bent on destabilization.  The Rajah 
Solaiman Movement (RSM) -- despite the recent arrest of its 
leader, Ahmad Santos -- represents a growing worry because of 
its ties to foreign financing and the ability of its members 
-- Christian converts to Islam -- to "blend in."  The 
Philippines has a recent history of terrorist attacks on its 
own territory.  The February 28, 2004, bombing of Superferry 
14, which killed over one hundred Filipinos, was the second 
worst terrorist attack in Asia after the October 2002 Bali 
bombings, while the February 14, 2005, "Valentine's Day" 
bombs in Manila and Mindanao devastated crowds of shoppers 
and commuters. 
 
3.  (S/NF) Amid these challenges, President Arroyo continues 
to fend off Opposition attempts to force her to step down 
following allegations that she engaged in cheating to win the 
2004 presidential election and that her immediate family 
benefited from illegal gambling revenues.  Arroyo continues 
to look for positive, public signs of support from the United 
States.  Pictures of Arroyo with President Bush at the APEC 
Summit were prominently displayed on the front pages of local 
newspapers, and she will want to use your visit to bolster 
the perception that the U.S. and the Philippines remain close 
partners, and that she personally has close ties to senior 
USG officials. 
 
4.  (S/NF) The government's political woes have not yet had a 
significant impact on the AFP and the PNP, our two principal 
counterterrorism partners, but could over time.  National 
Security Advisor Gonzales told the Charge November 21 he has 
recommended that the President impose emergency rule to 
counter the CPP/NPA threat (reftel).  Recent RMAS reporting 
indicates Arroyo may be weighing whether to enact emergency 
rule -- a move we believe she had backed away from in 
mid-October.  Resorting to emergency rule, a declaration of 
martial law, or a coup attempt would likely divide the 
military and the police, inflame the Opposition, and further 
diminish the attractiveness of the Philippines as an 
investment destination. 
 
USAID - ECONOMY AND LIVELIHOOD 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) Our counterterrorism engagement in the Philippines 
ranges from humanitarian relief and 
development to the military and public diplomacy.  USAID's 
Livelihood Enhancement and Peace (LEAP) program 
has reintegrated over 28,000 former Moro National Liberation 
Front (MNLF) combatants into productive 
society as successful farmers, and stands poised -- should 
the GRP sign a peace agreement with the MILF, as both sides 
increasingly appear to expect in the next few months  -- to 
provide similar assistance to the MILF.  USAID's broad 
spectrum of development programs (in infrastructure, 
education, governance, health, economic growth, environment, 
and energy) in conflict-affected areas of Mindanao have made 
a positive impact in communities vulnerable to exploitation 
by terrorists, as well as contributed to greater judicial 
efficiency, electoral reform, and promotion of rule of law 
nationwide. 
 
JUSMAG - TRAINING AND REFORM 
---------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The Joint US Military Assistance Group-Philippines 
(JUSMAG-P) plays an increasingly  vital role in our efforts 
to improve Philippine capabilities.  The US-trained and 
equipped Light Reaction Companies (LRCs) and Light Infantry 
Battalions (LIBs) are the tip of the spear in the 
counterterrorism fight. Although the AFP failed to 
capture ASG leader Khaddafy Janjalani during Operation Layas 
Pagad this summer, it did, as a direct result of US support 
and training, conduct unusually sustained combat operations 
in the field for over 60 days. Over the longer term, JUSMAG-P 
support for the Philippine Defense Reform (PDR) program will 
prove key to the GRP's ability to stand alone without US 
assistance and transform the AFP into a more modern, 
effective, and transparent institution, capable of meeting 
the needs of the Philippine people and serving as a more 
reliable coalition partner. 
 
JSOTF - INTELLIGENCE FUSION AND CIVIL MILITARY OPERATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
7.  (C) Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines 
(JSOTF-P) provides advice, assistance, and intelligence 
fusion to the AFP in the hunt for wanted terrorists. 
Additionally, JSOTF-P has broadened its scope to include 
civil-military operations in Mindanao.  This approach, 
coupled with USAID's longer-term programs, attacks the 
environment in which the terrorists thrive.  JSOTF-P's 
efforts in support of the AFP civil-military operations will 
initially focus on the island of Jolo in the Sulu 
Archipelago, an established ASG stronghold, with the goal of 
changing perceptions of the AFP and Philippine government 
among the citizens of Mindanao. 
 
8.  (S/NF) There are indications that ASG leaders Janjalani 
and Abu Solaiman as well as JI operative Umar Patek have 
moved from central Maguindanao to Jolo.  JSOTF-P Liaison 
Coordination Elements (LCEs) now on the island can help 
improve AFP efforts to target the terrorists through 
intelligence fusion and training assistance. 
 
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY - GETTING THE STORY OUT 
---------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) The Philippines remains an exuberant media 
environment, with much effort devoted to ensuring that 
journalists get their facts straight, while we also take 
every opportunity to get our side of the story out. 
Initiatives, such as our recently published "Muslim Life in 
the Philippines," have found a ready audience, and we have in 
the works a film chronicling the successful joint US-AFP 
effort to defeat the ASG on Basilan.  PAS works hand-in-glove 
with both USAID and JSOTF-P to ensure that perceptions of our 
efforts on every front are positive. 
 
REWARDS PROGRAMS - SYNERGIES 
---------------------------- 
 
10.  (S) Our rewards effort builds upon the synergies between 
the State and DoD programs to attack the web of 
social, religious, and cultural ties upon which the 
terrorists have relied for their safety and freedom. 
The promise of a reward encouraged individuals to step 
forward to help the AFP get ASG leader Hamsiraji Sali, ASG 
terrorist Toting Craft Hanno, and JI operative Jeki.  The USG 
has already paid out rewards for numerous other terrorists. 
We anticipate the recently announced reward of $10 million 
under Rewards for Justice for Dulmatin will help bring him to 
justice. 
 
RMAS - CRITICAL SUPPORT 
----------------------- 
 
11.  (S/NF) RMAS support and direction of the PNP's 
Intelligence Group (IG), Task Force Sanglahi, and the 
Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines 
(ISAFP) has proven critical to the capture of a number of 
terrorists and the disruption of operations directed against 
US interests.  RMAS assistance helped lead to major 
successes, such as the capture of RSM leader Ahmad Santos and 
JI operatives Jeki and Faiz. 
 
 
PRESS THEMES 
------------ 
 
12.  (SBU) In both your private and public remarks, we 
encourage you to highlight: 
 
--  Partnership:  You should reiterate that the Philippines 
is a valued partner in the Global War on Terror, as well as a 
Major Non-NATO Ally (despite the sudden pull-out of 
Philippine troops from Iraq in July 2004 in response to the 
kidnapping of Philippine driver Angelo De La Cruz); 
 
--  Anti-terrorism legislation: the Philippine House has 
consolidated its efforts behind one anti-terrorism bill, 
which is now out of Committee for consideration by the full 
House.  The Senate has also consolidated behind one bill. 
However, legislative action remains stalled, despite pressure 
from the Arroyo administration for action. You should stress 
the need to pass effective anti-terrorism legislation that 
will give law enforcement agencies the tools to fight and 
defeat terrorism, without compromising civil liberties; 
 
--  Peace talks:  With growing optimism by both the GRP and 
the MILF that the Malaysian-brokered peace talks could end 
with an agreement by mid-2006, both sides are also looking 
for USG developmental support similar to what we provided in 
the wake of the 1996 agreement with the MNLF.  Settling 
Bangsamoro claims for autonomy would politically mainstream a 
15,000-strong insurgent group, and make a significant 
contribution to stabilizing the region.  You should commend 
President Arroyo for the progress her government has made 
thus far, emphasize the strong US backing for the successful 
conclusion of the negotiations, and note USG willingness to 
consider new assistance programs by USAID to advance the 
goals of the peace agreement. 
 
IF ASKED 
-------- 
 
13.  (SBU) 
 
--  Espionage case:  The October 2005 arrest in the United 
States of an FBI employee of Filipino descent for espionage 
made front page news for weeks in the Philippines, focusing 
on his alleged ties with Opposition leaders Senator Panfilo 
Lacson and former president Joseph Estrada.  Alleged Embassy 
reporting was quoted in the press, apparently designed to 
create discord between the government and the United States. 
Because of your role as the Director of National 
Intelligence, Arroyo or her advisers may mention this case. 
In response to one alleged Embassy report, former President 
Ramos publicly asked you, as DNI and former Ambassador, to 
refute it  Charge has met Ramos and cleared the air, but the 
press may ask you about it.  Our consistent line is that the 
issue remains before the courts and we cannot comment on law 
enforcement matters. 
 
--  Alleged rape case:  Six U.S. Marines are now under 
investigation by Philippine officials as well as US military 
authorities for involvement in an alleged rape in Subic on 
November 1.  They remain in U.S. custody under the terms of 
the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).  Our consistent line is 
that we intend fully to comply with the terms of the VFA, 
that we are committed to seeing justice done, and that the 
accused should be presumed innocent until proven guilty. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
Jones