US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6669

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, KWBG, IS, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: ISA CHIEF DISKIN VIEWS RAFAH AS TEST CASE 
 
Classified By: CHARGE GENE A. CRETZ, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: During a November 18 meeting with NEA DAS 
Robert Danin, Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) Director 
Yuval Diskin said that a successfully managed passage at 
Rafah would encourage the opening of other passages and would 
benefit Qarni.  Diskin expressed concern about Fatah and its 
leader Mahmud Abbas, whose inattention to party issues had 
led to infighting.  He called jailed activist Marwan Barghuti 
the most extremist force in Fatah, but said that he could 
nonetheless become Fatah,s leader.  Diskin offered that the 
best results in the upcoming Palestinian elections would be 
if Fatah received more than 40 percent of the vote and Hamas 
received less than 30.  End summary. 
 
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Rafah as a Test Case 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) During a November 18 meeting with NEA DAS Robert 
Danin, Israel Security Agency Director Yuval Diskin said that 
Israel sees risks and dangers in allowing traffic between the 
West Bank and Gaza.  Nevertheless, if Rafah were successful, 
it would also benefit Qarni and other crossings into Israel. 
Rafah is an important test case, he said.  If the 
Palestinians are able to manage Rafah successfully, it will 
influence positively the opening of other passages. 
 
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Fatah in Trouble 
---------------- 
 
3. (C) Diskin expressed strong concerns about Fatah in the 
run-up to the Palestinian elections.  He said that Mahmud 
Abbas has shown no interest in party business and has not set 
up any mechanism to run the party while he ran the 
Palestinian Administration.  As a consequence, Fatah is 
disintegrating and has descended into infighting between an 
inactive old guard and a new guard that is ascendant but 
still largely excluded from the political process.  Diskin 
predicted that the old guard would disappear after the 
election.  He said the new guard does not trust Mahmud Abbas. 
 Marwan Barghuti, whom he called "a real troublemaker," is an 
important player and very popular.  Diskin believed Barghuti 
could become the party leader in the near future.  Diskin 
said that Barghuti tries to appear moderate in order to make 
himself more attractive and to help get himself released from 
Israeli imprisonment, but really is one of the most extremist 
members of Fatah.  Diskin said that keeping Barghuti in jail 
is the best of the available options. 
 
--------------------- 
Palestinian Elections 
--------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Asked about his forecast of the Palestinian election 
scheduled for January 2006, Diskin said that the outcome 
would depend on the Fatah party list.  He said that the 
likely outcome would be clearer following the upcoming 
primaries, even though the Central Committee and not the 
primary would decide who is on the list.  The best results 
would be for Fatah to receive more than 40 percent and for 
Hamas to get less than 30 percent.  Diskin said that recent 
polls indicated that with a strong party list, Fatah would 
receive 42 percent and Hamas 20 percent. 
 
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No Coordination with PA on Anti-terrorism 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Diskin indicated that terrorism is still a major 
problem in PA-controlled areas, and this was one reason why 
he had opposed disengagement.  Diskin said that cooperation 
with his Palestinian counterparts had been "useless" and 
there had been no coordination on anti-terrorist activities. 
He said that some Palestinian leaders continue to support 
terrorist activities and had provided help to suicide 
bombers, and added that the problem was worse in Gaza than in 
the West Bank.  Diskin said that Dahlan was no longer the 
strongman he once was in Gaza, and that new stars, such as 
Mushrawi and Hillis, were on the ascendancy.  There are at 
least two Hamas cells in the Hebron area and one in Nablus, 
which Diskin called "the capital of terrorism." The Shin Bet 
had been able to thwart their activities.  Ramallah is where 
the "brains of Hamas" are located, he suggested.  Diskin said 
that without Fatah support, local commanders have no 
motivation to act.  Thus, he argued, "We have to do the most 
to help Fatah." 
 
6.  (C) DAS Danin cleared this cable. 
 
CRETZ 
 
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CRETZ