US embassy cable - 05NDJAMENA1690

UNCLAS  NDJAMENA 001690 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, Oil Revenue Management 
SUBJECT: CHAD:  UPDATE ON OIL REVENUE LAW REVISIONS 
 
REF:  NDJAMENA 1662 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  The Government's proposed revisions to 
the oil revenue management law are moving through the 
legislative process.  The National Assembly originally 
planned to debate them on December 14, but a dispute within 
the majority group in the legislature may slow down the 
process.  In a meeting with charge, Minister of Plan Mahamat 
Ali Hassan hinted that there could be other changes proposed 
by the deputies themselves that could eliminate the Oil 
Revenue Management College altogether.  Upon his return to 
N'Djamena from eastern Chad, a seemingly vigorous President 
Deby orchestrated a rent-a-crowd rally to demonstrate the 
popularity of the proposed changes.  Independent civil 
society groups strongly oppose the revisions and suspect 
that the Government is also trying to impose control over 
the College by altering its membership.  In a related move, 
the Government has also put on hold the work of the U.S. 
Treasury advisor.  Taken together, recent events suggest 
that the Government intends to follow through on the 
revisions and take greater control over its oil resources. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  National Assembly deputies are now reviewing the 
Government's proposed revisions to the oil revenue 
management law.  The floor debate was originally scheduled 
for December 14.  However, the National Assembly clerk told 
P/E officer on November 25 that the proposed revisions have 
been taken off the legislative calendar.  He said that the 
legislators could begin considering the proposal on December 
20, but no date has been set at this time.  Of the 155 
deputies, the ruling Movement for Patriotic Salvation (MPS) 
and its allies control 119 of the seats in the National 
Assembly. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Four members of the College expressed their 
concerns over the Government's proposal to add a 
representative from the yet-to-be named Economic and Social 
Council to the College.  Other government representatives 
currently on the College are technocrats or involved in 
budget execution.  A Government representative from the 
Council, a body being set up to advise the President, would 
compromise the working relationship already established 
among the various representatives, according to Dobian 
Assingar, the human rights group representative on the 
College. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Discussions with other College members revealed 
that the representatives of the Supreme Court, non- 
governmental organizations, and trade unions also share his 
concerns about the independence of the College in the 
future.  The Government is also proposing extending the 
mandate of member to nine years.  Our discussions with 
government and non-governmental members of the College also 
indicate an emerging rift between College members, who to 
date have worked well together. 
 
5.  (SBU)  The GOC's proposed revision is also generating 
opposition from members of civil society.  Local NGOs have 
publicly voiced their concerns over the revisions and the 
impact they will have on productive developmental usage of 
the oil revenues.  Chadian labor unions announced their 
intention to hold a public strike on December 5 to protest 
the government's inclusion of Public Security and 
Territorial Administration as eligible priority sectors, but 
exclusion of any mention of paying off its salary arrears to 
disgruntled civil servants. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Against this backdrop, the Government has put a 
hold on the work of the U.S. Treasury Advisor.  In an 
exchange of letters between the Minister of Plan Mahamat Ali 
Hassan and College President Lamana Abdoulaye, Hassan 
indicated problems with the Treasury Advisor's terms of 
reference and also directed Abdoulaye that the Advisor 
should not begin working at the College until the revisions 
to the oil revenue management law are passed.  Charge and 
P/E officer met with the Minister on November 17 to clarify 
the Government's position on the Treasury Advisor's 
presence.  The Minister of Plan said that on the terms of 
reference, he would study them carefully and send his 
questions for clarification to Abdoulaye.  He promised to 
send his revisions "soon."  As of today, the College has not 
received any correspondence from the Ministry. 
 
7.  (SBU)  During the discussion, the Minister of Plan 
explained that the National Assembly deputies might propose 
their own changes to the oil revenue management law, which 
go further than those proposed by the Government and could 
change the work of the College. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Charge attended public speech by President Deby 
on November 16, at which he emphasized the importance of 
Chad's sovereignty.  The speech was given at a ruling party 
political rally, which was attended by paid participants and 
demonstrators carrying signs in favor of the oil law 
revisions.  Appearing vigorous and in command during his 35 
minute speech, Deby also warned that would not tolerate 
"disorder" and vowed to deal sternly "adventurers" who 
sought to undermine the government for personal gain. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (SBU)  The Minister of Plan's comments are worrisome 
because the ruling-party controlled National Assembly has a 
well-established track record of doing the President's 
bidding, such as recommending the removal of presidential 
term limits.  Given that the legislature has never acted 
independently of the Government, the Minister's comments 
might be a veiled threat that the Government, through the 
deputies, could abolish the College altogether.  The 
Government has given no indication that it has received 
various letters of concern about the process from members of 
Congress, the international financial institutions, or 
international non-governmental organizations. 
 
10.  The Government is undeterred by growing opposition to 
the proposed changes from groups within Chad and key 
international actors.  The Government continues with its 
strategy to deflect responsibility for the proposed changes, 
claiming on the one hand that it is under pressure from the 
Chadian public to have more control over the oil resources 
and then, on the other hand, manipulating the ruling party 
deputies to propose the changes. 
 
 
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