US embassy cable - 05KATHMANDU2605

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002605 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS, H 
NSC FOR RICHELSOPH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, NP 
SUBJECT: UML PROTESTS PEACEFUL IN THE SOUTH AND WEST 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 2519 
 
     B. KATHMANDU 2529 
 
Classified By: CDA Elisabeth Millard.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Six Thousand Participate in Peaceful Demonstration in Pokhara 
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1. (C) On November 25, CPN-UML held a peaceful mass meeting 
to protest against the King and in favor of democracy in 
Pokhara, western Nepal.  Emboff observed the demonstration 
and found it was peaceful and that authorities did not try to 
prevent it from taking place.  The demonstrators paraded 
through town before hearing speeches by UML Party leaders. 
Emboff estimated that the crowd numbered about 6,000, sharply 
different from the UML's claim that 50,000 people took part. 
This rally followed the November 16 rally in Butwal, in which 
15,000 to 130,000 people were said to have taken part (reftel 
B).  UML sources also charged that the government again 
blocked the highways leading to Pokhara.  Police sources 
explained that security service personnel strictly checked 
vehicles going to Pokhara, which slowed the traffic, but 
allowed them to proceed.  Emboff observed groups in the 
parade carrying banners indicating that they were from 
outlying areas as well as groups of school children in 
uniform.  She also saw people getting on buses to return home 
after the demonstration dispersed. 
 
CPN-UML Head Urges King to Respond Positively 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) CPN-UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal told 
those gathered in Pokhara on November 25 that the "King might 
have to face the International Criminal Court (ICC) if he did 
not take the Parties-Maoist understanding wisely and forced 
the Maoists to return to violence."  M.K. Nepal also urged 
the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) to support the people and not 
the King.  Referring to Senator Leahy's November 18 statement 
that "it may not be long before the army is faced with a 
fateful choice," M.K. Nepal commented that "The army has also 
killed people.  So its chief also should have to come within 
the ICC's purview if he undermines the people."  He stressed 
that anyone repressing pro-democracy movements would "have to 
face the people's court."  He asserted that the King had two 
options, to go with the people or to opt for all-out war. 
"If the King chooses the second option, then it will invite 
the end of the institution" of the monarchy, he stated.  The 
UML leader added that the Parties would accept a ceremonial 
monarchy "only if the King withdraws the royal moves of 
October 4, 2002 and February 1, 2005 and concedes his 
mistakes." 
 
Parties Continue to Mobilize Public 
----------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) CPN-UML also held a peaceful rally in the southern 
town of Janakpur on November 27, in which the Party claimed 
45,000 people took part. (Note: Earlier claims by UML have 
been inflated.  We cannot verify this claim.  End note.)  As 
in the other recent demonstrations, police reportedly 
strictly checked all vehicles entering the area.  The next 
CPN-UML rally is set for Kathmandu on December 2.  The Nepali 
Congress party has planned a rally in Bharatpur on November 
29 and Biratnagar on December 3. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (C)  The political parties are working to mobilize support 
in the outlying areas, something that can be done only with 
acquiescence and Maoist support.  The fact that these 
protests remain peaceful is a sign that the government is 
reacting with moderation to the 12-point understanding.  It 
also is an indication that the Maoists have not yet decided 
to turn the Party organized demonstrations in the cities 
violent.  The threat and concern that they will do so remains. 
MILLARD