US embassy cable - 05MANILA5506

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 MANILA 005506 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/TNC, S/CT 
NSC FOR H. MORROW 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PINS, PTER, RP, NL, NO 
SUBJECT: PERCEPTIONS OF THE COMMUNIST THREAT IN THE 
PHILIPPINES 
 
REF: A. MANILA 5433 
 
     B. MANILA 5346 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a. i., Paul W. Jones for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Asia's longest surviving Communist 
insurgency remains entrenched in the social and political 
landscape of the Philippines.  The Communist Party of the 
Philippines (CPP) is currently attempting to exploit domestic 
political tensions to force the Arroyo Administration from 
power, but with no real prospects of success from its own 
efforts.  Although the CPP's armed wing -- the New People's 
Army (NPA) -- does not have the capability militarily to 
defeat the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), its 130 
guerrilla fronts continue to threaten internal security and 
impede economic development.  Philippine national security 
officials are concerned about perceived links between the 
Communists and Opposition political leaders.  Peace talks 
between the GRP and National Democratic Front (NDF) remain 
suspended.  Dutch authorities are reviewing the GRP's legal 
evidence against CPP-NPA leader/NDF political 
consultant/designated terrorist Jose Maria Sison, who has 
been residing in Utrecht, Netherlands as a political refugee. 
 NDF representatives recently provided the Norwegian 
Government - which has been a broker in the GRP-NDF peace 
process -- with a proposal for a 120 day cease-fire and 
possible return to the negotiating table.  End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
A Persistent Threat 
------------------- 
 
2. (C)  Asia's longest surviving communist insurgency -- the 
CPP/NPA/NDF -- is active in most of the Philippines' 79 
provinces.  To maintain a support base at the grassroots 
level, CPP/NPA cadre often provide free medical care, 
education, and other social services to the rural poor, 
especially in areas where the GRP remains only a distant 
reality.   These social services, as well as propaganda 
against the often ineffective and corrupt central 
governmental structure, help to explain the continued appeal 
of the CPP/NPA/NDF to segments of the Philippines' rural and 
urban population.  (Note: An estimated 30 per cent of the 
Philippines' total population is living below the national 
poverty line.  According to the World Health Organization, 
more than two-thirds of the poor reside in rural areas.  End 
Note.) 
 
3. (C)  At its peak during the 1980's, the NPA was at least 
25,000 strong.  But internal disputes -- exploited by the GRP 
-- split the CPP/NPA into factions including the Alex 
Boncayao Brigade (ABB), Revolutionary Workers 
Party/Revolutionary Proletarian Army (RWP/RPA), and 
Rebolusyunaryong Partido Manggagawa - Mindanao (RPM-M).  By 
1996, during the presidency of General Fidel V. Ramos, NPA 
troop strength dropped to about 6,000, but rebounded to 
approximately 12,000 during the late 1990's under President 
Estrada, ostensibly due to the release of 8,000 to 16,000 
CPP/NPA members from prison during a general amnesty. 
According to current estimates, troop strength is now down to 
about 8,000, with 130 guerrilla fronts. 
 
4.  (C)  Despite declining numbers, the NPA remains a potent 
force, responsible for the deaths of at least 80 police and 
army personnel as well as 40 civilians during the first eight 
months of 2005 (ref b).  The NPA targets not only GRP 
security forces but also internal dissenters, defectors, 
suspected government informants, and those who fail to pay 
"revolutionary taxes" or "permit to campaign" (PTC) fees. 
 
5. (SBU)  Between 1970 and 1991, the NPA allegedly also 
killed 16 U.S. citizens -- six civilians and ten military 
personnel.  From 1989 to 2001, the NPA claimed responsibility 
for or were primary suspects in at least nine 
bombings/attempted bombings against U.S. facilities in the 
Philippines using improvised explosives, rocket propelled 
grenades, and/or Molotov cocktails.  Over this same 13-year 
period, the NPA took two Americans hostage in two separate 
incidents.  Since 2001, there have been no reported attacks 
against U.S. citizens, although the NPA has periodically 
warned that it will target any armed Americans that entered 
its areas of control or influence, notably during U.S. 
military disaster relief assistance after the December 2004 
typhoons in northern Luzon. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Peace Talks Collapse, Attacks Increase 
-------------------------------------- 
6. (SBU)  Peace talks (begun in 1992) between the NDF -- 
composed of 17 organizations including the CPP/NPA -- and the 
GRP collapsed in September 2005 when the NDF declared that it 
would await the ouster of President Arroyo and reiterated its 
demand for the removal of the CPP/NPA from the U.S. and 
European Union lists of terrorist organizations.  With the 
GRP suspension of immunity guarantees for NDF negotiators, 
CPP/NPA leaders vowed to step up armed attacks throughout the 
Philippines. 
 
7. (SBU)  During the two week period of September 24-October 
8, the CPP claimed at least 74 military actions -- 24 of 
which were in Mindanao.  The NPA continues to threaten 
security and impede investment/development by launching 
attacks on nearly a daily basis against the military and 
police, commuter buses, cell sites, construction equipment, 
and infrastructure.  On October 9, five soldiers and three 
civilians were killed by NPA land mines  in Misamis 
Occidental.  Another NPA-planted land mine and ambush on 
November 19 left nine soldiers dead and 20 wounded in Iloilo, 
Western Visayas.  From November 20 to November 29, the NPA 
has additionally killed at least 13 Philippine soldiers, 
wounded more than 35, and abducted a Philippine Marine 
sergeant. In response to these attacks, PNP Director General 
Arturo C. Lomibao recommended a revival of the rewards system 
for the capture of CPP/NPA leaders wanted on criminal charges. 
 
8.  (SBU)  The GRP Peace Negotiating Panel For Talks With the 
CPP/NPA/NDF (GPNP-CNN) condemned the NPA's use of land mines 
as a violation of the Comprehensive Agreement on Respect for 
Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law (CARHRIHL) 
signed by the GRP and NPA on March 16, 1998 (see para 19). 
President Arroyo reportedly directed the AFP -- which vowed 
to intensify its operations against the NPA -- to ensure that 
there would be minimal casualties among GRP forces. 
 
9.  (SBU)  NDF representatives contacted the Norwegian 
Government in mid-November with a proposal for a 120 day 
cease-fire and possible return to the negotiating table. 
Norwegian Embassy contacts were cautiously optimistic about 
this proposal but noted that the spike in NPA attacks since 
September could possibly be a strategy to strengthen the 
NDF's negotiating hand with the GRP.  According to press 
accounts on November 23, at least two Philippine lawmakers, 
as well as the MILF leadership, have also called for an 
AFP-NPA cease-fire to help spur peace talks.  AFP General 
Generoso Senga and CPP spokesperson Gregario "Ka Roger" Rosal 
separately stated that a cease-fire during the Christmas 
season was possible, but likely to be violated. 
 
--------------------------- 
GRP Efforts Against the NPA 
--------------------------- 
 
10. (C)  The GRP's counterinsurgency campaign against the 130 
guerrilla fronts of the NPA operating in 14 of the 16 
geographical regions of the Philippines consumes the majority 
of AFP and PNP resources, according to officials of the 
Department of National Defense and Department of Interior and 
Local Government.  From January to June 2004 (the most recent 
statistics available), there were 505 armed engagements 
between the AFP and NPA.  However, by and large, the AFP does 
not undertake significant offensives or well-planned 
campaigns against NPA forces, but rather depends on chance 
encounters or retaliatory attacks -- even in the wake of the 
recent upsurge of CPP/NPA military activity. 
 
11. (C)  The PNP, which is mandated to support the AFP's 
counterinsurgency campaign, dedicates nearly half of its 
intelligence collection and investigative activities toward 
tracking members of the CPP/NPA, according to PNP sources. 
With many of the PNP's tactical operations focused against 
the CPP/NPA, PNP assets continue to be diverted away from 
other law enforcement operations to include those against 
Muslim terrorist organizations. 
 
----------------------- 
The Leftist Politicians 
----------------------- 
 
12. (SBU)   The GRP has long pursued a non-military/law 
enforcement approach to winning over CPP members and other 
leftists.  Under special provisions in the 1987 Constitution, 
up to twenty percent of Congressional seats are reserved for 
"party list" members, mostly to represent marginalized 
sectors of society rather than a geographic constituency. 
These far-left but legal groups include Bayan Muna, 
Anakpawis, Gabriela, Anak ng Bayan, Migrante, and Suara 
Bangsamoro.  Six party list representatives are currently 
serving in Congress: former NDF chairman Satur Ocampo, 
Teodoro A. Casino, and Joel G. Virador of Bayan Muna; 
International League of Peoples' Struggle (ILPS) - 
International Coordinating Group (ILPS-ICG) chairman Crispin 
Beltran and ILPS-International Coordinating Committee (ICC) 
member Rafael Mariano of Anakpawis, and ILPS-ICC member Lisa 
Largoza-Maza of Gabriela.  (Note: The International League of 
Peoples' Struggle was founded on May 25, 2001, in Zutphen, 
Netherlands by the International Initiative Committee chaired 
by CPP/NPA leader and chief political consultant to the NDF 
Jose Maria Sison.  According to its website, membership of 
the ILPS is composed of over 200 organizations from at least 
40 countries that "support the cause of national liberation, 
democracy and social liberation against imperialism and all 
reaction."  End Note.) 
 
13.  (C) Opinions vary widely on the relationship between the 
CPP/NPA/NDF and these legal leftist groups.  Some -- 
including at senior levels of the GRP leadership (see para 
14) -- view them as no more than Communist front 
organizations, and have claimed that they are funneling 
Congressional funds to the CPP/NPA as well as organizing 
anti-Arroyo demonstrations.  Others view the participation of 
these groups in the legitimate political arena and 
institutions as a success story of co-option of formerly 
radical elements into the democratic process.  Party list 
members uniformly deny membership in the CPP. 
 
-------------------------------- 
National Security Advisor's View 
-------------------------------- 
 
14. (C)  At the direction of National Security Advisor 
Norberto Gonzales, the Philippine National Security Council 
(NSC) passed to the U.S. Embassy on October 16 an NSC 
analysis entitled "The Communist Movement's Role in the 
Destabilization Campaign Against the Government."  Key points 
are: 
 
--- The CPP/NPA/NDF has gained a firm foothold in the 
Philippines' mainstream politics with members of its front 
organizations sitting in Congress; 
 
--- The CPP/NPA/NDF will enter into a power sharing 
arrangement with any coalition that can oust Arroyo from 
power; 
 
--- The Communist movement is spreading propaganda, 
organizing street protests, and infiltrating/forming 
alliances with such opposition and civil society groups as 
the Freedom from Debt Coalition, Council for the Defense of 
Civil Liberties, Coalition for Truth, White Ribbon Movement, 
Gloria Step Down Movement, United Opposition, Bangon 
Pilipinas, Akbayan, and former President Estrada's Partido ng 
Manggagawang Pilipino; 
 
--- Party list groups such as Bayan Muna and Gabriela have 
been attending organizational meetings, prayer and mass 
rallies, and press conferences of mainstream opposition 
groups under Senator Panfilo Lacson, FPJ widow Susan Roces, 
"Brother" Eddie Villanueva, and former president Corazon 
Aquino; 
 
--- Communists were key organizers of a People's Tribunal 
that is holding an impeachment trial against President Arroyo 
outside the halls of Congress; 
 
--- The NPA has increased its attacks on military and police 
outposts, businesses, and telecommunications facilities, and 
is targeting for assassination members of the GRP's national 
security/intelligence team and congressmen who withdrew their 
endorsements for the impeachment of Arroyo; 
 
--- From August 20-22, the CPP Central Committee sponsored a 
training course of 22 NPA fighters on Command Detonating 
Explosives (CDX).  One of the trainers was a Russian chemist. 
 
15.  (C)  Gonzales in private meetings (ref a) has repeatedly 
mentioned the real threat that the CPP/NPA poses to the 
security of the Philippines over the long-term.  He has cited 
this as a reason for concluding a peace agreement with the 
MILF in Mindanao so that additional resources can be deployed 
against the CPP/NPA. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
A Political Refugee and Designated Terrorist 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
16.  (C)  According to an Embassy contact, Dutch officials 
are now reviewing the GRP's legal evidence against CPP/NPA 
founder/leader and chief political consultant to the NDF, 
Jose Maria Sison.  (According to the Dutch Ambassador to the 
Philippines, however, the legal file is very thin.)  Sison, 
who remains on the U.S. and EU lists of designated 
terrorists, has been residing in the Netherlands since 1987. 
 
17.  (C)  Due to the lack of an extradition treaty between 
the GRP and the Royal Netherlands Government, rendition or 
deportation of Sison by Dutch authorities would be necessary 
to bring him to justice in the Philippines.  Among the 
potential stumbling blocks to such an action is Sison's 
protection as a judicially recognized political refugee under 
the Refugee Convention and Article 3 of the European 
Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental 
Freedoms.  GRP officials would also have to provide 
assurances that he would not face the death penalty if 
convicted; according to some sources, a recent letter from 
President Arroyo finally provided such an assurance. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
18. (C)  We see no signs that the CPP/NPA has any intention 
of abating its decades-old effort to overthrow the Philippine 
government or that it has any hope of ever achieving this 
goal.  It continues to survive in reaction to chronic 
nationwide problems of poor governance, inadequate 
governmental resources to combat poverty, enduring resentment 
over official corruption and incompetence, as well as 
societal remnants of Philippine-style feudalism that continue 
to favor a small number of political and economic dynasties. 
The CPP/NPA's nationwide presence nonetheless make it a 
significant threat in the eyes of the GRP, which remains 
incapable of defeating it militarily. 
 
--------------------------- 
Text of GRP Press Statement 
--------------------------- 
 
19.  (SBU) The complete text of a November 23 press statement 
by the GRP Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace 
Process - Peace Negotiating Panel For Talks with the 
CPP/NPA/NDF follows. 
 
Begin: 
 
We view with sadness and regret, the salutary message of the 
Communist Party to its New People's Army congratulating the 
guerrillas for its "string of successful tactical offensives" 
in the past two weeks. 
 
We are appalled on how such a killing spree and consequent 
human suffering perpetuated on Filipinos by fellow Filipinos 
can be celebrated as an occasion for celebration. 
 
We view with particular alarm, the New People's Army use of 
landmines in its assault against government troops.  The GRP 
considers the use of any kind of land mines as a violation of 
the spirit and letter of the Comprehensive Agreement on the 
Respect for Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law 
(CARHRIHL) signed by the GRP and NDF on March 16, 1998. 
 
Part III, Article 2 of the CARHRIHL reads:  "This agreement 
seeks to confront and prevent the most serious human rights 
violations in terms of civil and political rights, as well as 
to uphold, protect and promote the full scope of human rights 
and fundamental freedoms including: The right not to be 
subjected to forced evacuations, food and other forms of 
economic blockades and indiscriminate bombings, shellings, 
strafing, gunfire and the use of land mines." 
 
The CARHRIHL clearly and deliberately does not distinguish 
between victim-detonated and command-detonated land mines. 
However the CPP defends use of land mines by citing 
international conventions. 
 
We likewise condemn the NPA's persistent attacks on civilian 
targets such as Globe cell sites, which is a violation of 
CARHRIHL, Part IV, Article 4, item 4 which states:  "Civilian 
population and civilians shall be treated as such and shall 
be distinguished from combatants and, together with their 
property, shall not be the object of attack.  They shall 
likewise be protected against indiscriminate aerial 
bombardment, strafing, artillery fire, mortar fire, arson, 
bulldozing and other similar forms of destroying lives and 
property, from the use of explosives as well as the 
stockpiling near or in their midst, and the use of chemical 
and biological weapons." 
 
We question the National Democratic Front's good faith when 
it interprets the straightforward 
language of the CARHRIHL to justify its violations and mangle 
the spirit and letter of this sacred agreement. 
 
End. 
 
 
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Jones