US embassy cable - 05MUMBAI2252

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 002252 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR, PGOV, PREL, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MADHYA PRADESH: FIREBRAND BHARTI SIDELINED AS BJP NAMES NEW 
CHIEF MINISTER 
 
REF: MUMBAI 2076 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) On November 26, the BJP national leadership replaced 
Madhya Pradesh (MP)Chief Minister Babulal Gaur with state party 
President Shivraj Singh Chauhan.  The action was a blow to 
former MP chief minister Uma Bharti, a controversial and 
boisterous politician who had lobbied heavily behind the scenes 
to oust Gaur in hopes of returning as chief minister (reftel). 
In a move apparently aimed at pacifying Bharti, the BJP national 
leadership named her BJP national general secretary.  The BJP 
leadership's decision to sideline Bharti is seen as a victory 
for the party's second-tier leadership, which both resents and 
fears Bharti's firebrand political style and her recent 
reemergence as a political force following her suspension from 
the party in late 2004.  End summary. 
 
BJP Leadership Moves Without Consulting State Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2. (SBU) The BJP took the decision to replace the MP chief 
minister without prior consultations with the party's faction in 
the state parliament.  Some observers had commented that the 
central leadership wanted to avoid a direct encounter with the 
many parliament members loyal to the firebrand Bharti. 
Nonetheless, we expect most BJP legislators to support the 
change.  Chauhan and his new cabinet will likely be sworn in on 
November 29 or 30. 
 
3. (SBU) In comments to the media, many members of Bharti's 
sizable contingent of MP supporters expressed disappointment 
that their leader fell short of her goal of recapturing the 
Chief Minister post.  However, as of November 28 it did not 
appear that Bharti's loyalists had either the critical mass or 
the political will to challenge the central leadership's 
decision.  Bharti herself has not made any public comments since 
the party leadership announced its decision. 
 
4. (SBU) Gaur succeeded Bharti as chief minister in August 2004. 
 Bharti was forced to resign after the MP police issued a 
warrant for her arrest.  In the mid-1990s Bharati allegedly 
sponsored a demonstration in support of the national flag that 
resulted in a violent clash with political opponents and she was 
charged with incitement to riot.  Within a month, the charges 
were dropped, but the party leadership refused to reinstate her. 
 Many of her supporters believed that Bharati fell victim to a 
political trick played on her by second-rung MP BJP leaders who 
felt threatened by her popularity.   She began to air her 
grievances publicly, and in December 2004 even incurred a party 
suspension for confronting BJP leaders on live television.  She 
was late reinstated and actively campaigned for the BJP in the 
recent Bihar elections. 
 
Chauhan Will Be Fourth CM Since 2003 
------------------------------------ 
 
5. (SBU) Gaur was the third chief minister in Madhya Pradesh in 
as many years.  He was viewed as a weak and ineffective leader 
of an administration tainted by numerous corruption charges. 
There was a strong movement in both MP and at the national level 
to oust him.  Bharti tried to capitalize on this discontent in 
her own campaign to regain the CM job in Bhopal.  In doing so, 
she encountered the resistance of the second-tier political 
leadership of the BJP, which resents her abrasive political 
style and feels threatened by her continued widespread 
popularity at the grassroots level. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) Bharti won her battle to oust Gaur but lost the war she 
had waged to be reinstated as chief minister.  This is the 
latest step by the national BJP leadership to tighten its grip 
in the Hindu heartland after the NDA's recent strong performance 
in the Bihar elections.  At the same time, however, the party 
leadership was not interested in furthering the political 
ambitions of the volatile and incalculable Bharti, who has been 
mounting a successful political comeback since her party 
suspension in late 2004.  The move to keep her out of power in 
Bhopal can be seen as a victory for the second-tier leadership 
of the BJP, which is maneuvering for position ahead of the 
planned retirement of party president LK Advani later this year. 
 It is unlikely, however, that the BJP has heard the last of the 
ambitious Bharti, who will no doubt use her political talents 
and the grassroots resentment towards the central BJP 
leadership's decision to launch another attempt at regaining 
power in Bhopal.  As part of its consolidation of power in the 
Hindi belt, the BJP could well turn to Rajasthan next, where 
another charismatic female politician, Vasundhara Raje, faces 
factional opposition.  Rumor had it that Raje would be offered 
the General Secretary slot to entice her back to New Delhi. 
Once the BJP deals with factionalism in its Hindi belt bastions, 
it will likely focus on Uttar Pradesh, where national parties 
like the BJP and Congress have had little success in breaking 
the stranglehold of regional politicians.  End comment. 
 
Biography of New MP Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
7. (U) Shivraj Singh Chouhan was born on 5 March 1959 in Jait 
village of Sehore district of Madhya Pradesh.  He received an 
M.A. in Philosophy from Bhopal University, Madhya Pradesh, and 
is an agriculturist by profession.   Chouhan has been a member 
of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (R.S.S.) since 1972, and has 
been active in various roles in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 
and its youth movement since the late 1970s.  In 1990 he was 
elected to the legislative assembly of Madhya Pradesh.  In 1991, 
he was elected to the Lok Sabha, representing the Vidisha 
Constituency of Madhya Pradesh.  He has been reelected to the 
Lok Shabha four times, the last time in 2004.  In 1992 he was 
named general secretary of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh.  From 
2000-2003 Chouhan was a National Secretary, and in 2004 he was 
named National General Secretary for the BJP.  In early 2005 he 
was named BJP party president in Madhya Pradesh.  He resigned 
this post after being designated as new Chief Minister of Madhya 
Pradesh on November 26, 2005.  He and his spouse Sadhna Singh 
Chouhan were married on May 5, 1992, and have two sons. 
OWEN