US embassy cable - 05KATHMANDU2595

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002595 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, MOPS, NP 
SUBJECT:  MAOIST LEADER NEGATIVE ON EXTENDING CEASE-FIRE 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 2556 
 
Classified By: CDA Elisabeth I. Millard, Reason 1.4 (b/d) 
 
Agreement with Parties against Autocratic Monarchy 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
1. (SBU) In a November 24 interview published on the official 
Maoist website and a November 27 interview with BBC's Nepali 
Service, Maoist leader Prachanda explained the benefits of 
the Parties-Maoist understanding (reftel).  Prachanda called 
the understanding an agreement that was the "preliminary 
working unity between the political parties that want 
democracy."  He added that the agreement was intended "to 
raise a storm against the autocratic monarchy."  He told the 
BBC that his party was waiting for the King's response.  In 
both interviews, however, he indicated that the agreement was 
not meant to make any kind of compromise with the Palace.  In 
what could be a departure from the understanding, which 
provided that the Maoists would turn over their arms to a UN 
or international organization during constituent assembly 
elections, Prachanda told the BBC that the question of arms 
would be settled after the election results.  He also 
remarked that "arms can be settled by reorganizing the armed 
forces of both sides." 
 
No Decision on Extending the Cease-Fire 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Although saying that his party had not yet decided 
whether to break or extend the cease-fire, due to end 
December 3, Prachanda laid the groundwork to break it.  In 
his November 24 interview, he asserted that "the way this 
feudal autocratic system and its royal group is killing our 
unarmed cadres and people, detaining and terrorizing people 
and how it has used our cease-fire to expand its army camps 
and how it is claiming to have established peace, it is 
compelling us to take a harsh decision."  He noted that 
breaking the cease-fire would not affect the Maoists' 
agreement with the Parties.  CPN-UML Central Committee member 
Kashi Nath Adhikari told us that he concurred - a Maoist 
compulsion to break the cease-fire would not affect the 
Maoist-Parties understanding.  However, he admitted that it 
would make matters more difficult.  In contrast, Minendra 
Rijal, spokesperson for Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D), 
acknowledged that if the Maoists did not extend the 
cease-fire, it would be very difficult for the Parties to 
work with the Maoists.  He explained that the Parties' 
understanding was based on the Maoists professed desire to 
move ahead peacefully; if the Maoists broke the cease-fire 
before constituent assembly elections the Parties would lose 
trust in the Maoists. 
 
Maoists Silent on Future of Monarchy 
------------------------------------ 
 
3. (C) Prachanda evaded direct questions on whether the 
Maoists would accept a ceremonial or constitutional monarch, 
but claimed that the Maoists were "ready to accept the result 
of free, fair and peaceful elections to the constituent 
assembly."  Party leaders and other commentators have 
inferred from his response that the Maoists would accept a 
ceremonial monarch if the King agreed to allow constituent 
assembly elections and the people voted to retain the 
monarchy.  Rijal told us the Maoists had become more flexible 
and wanted to rejoin the political mainstream.  He advocated 
encouragement of, and engagement with, the Maoists. 
Prachanda noted his belief that people of the 21st century 
would not vote in favor of the king.  He continued to 
emphasize that his party has not abandoned its goal of a 
republic and said that its demand for a constituent assembly 
was "unconditional." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (C) Prachanda's recent public statements underline that 
the Maoists have not committed to renounce violence.  Rather, 
Prachanda seems to see a future with Maoists having weapons 
throughout and beyond any election process.  If the Maoists 
break their cease-fire, the understanding with the political 
parties could falter and the seven-party alliance itself 
could splinter.  In addition, the Parties could be at greater 
risk for government action on the charge of collaborating 
with terrorists seeking the violent overthrow of the 
government -- a charge most Nepalis would probably support. 
MILLARD