US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1870

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001870 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR P, EUR/CACEN, SA, DRL, S/P 
NSC FOR MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KISL, KDEM, RS, TI, Internal Politics 
SUBJECT: MODERATE TAJIK ISLAMIC LEADER KABIRI WALKS A TIGHTROPE -- 
RAHMONOV WANTS TO MARGINALIZE HIM; HIS PARTY'S ISLAMIST WING 
DISTRUSTS HIM 
 
REF: A) DUSHANBE 1866  B) DUSHANBE 1855  C) DUSHANBE 1828 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy 
Dushanbe. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  First Deputy Chairman of the Islamic 
Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) and Member of Parliament, 
Muhiddin Kabiri, worries that the government wants to 
marginalize him and that his pro-Western views alienate a 
significant wing of his party.  He praised Secretary Rice's 
visit to a Dushanbe mosque and madrassa, but lamented the 
blackout by Tajik state media of coverage of these events.  He 
said the Chairman of the Lower House of Parliament ordered him 
never again to wear an orange tie (symbol of "color 
revolutions").  The Russian Embassy under its new ambassador has 
severed all contact with the IRPT.  He asserted that the current 
Tajik leadership, increasingly authoritarian, will not allow 
legitimate new leaders to emerge.  The West should carefully 
find ways to support Kibiri as a new-generation, moderate 
Islamic leader.  This would include giving him greater political 
exposure at high levels, not just at the usual international 
seminars and conferences.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (SBU) Muhiddin Kabiri, the First Deputy Chairman of the 
Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), asked for a 
November 22 meeting with the Ambassador to discuss his views of 
Tajikistan's political scene since Secretary Rice's October 13 
visit to Dushanbe. 
 
REACTION TO THE SECRETARY'S VISIT 
 
3.  (C) Kabiri requested a readout of the Secretary's meeting 
with President Rahmonov.  The Ambassador assured Kabiri that 
Secretary Rice had told Rahmonov that the United States wants to 
 
SIPDIS 
see Tajik presidential elections in 2006 that meet international 
standards.  She explained to Rahmonov that clean elections don't 
happen just on election day, but, equally important, in the long 
run-up when other politicians need access to the media to get 
their messages to the people. 
 
4.  (C) Noting he had just come from a state think-tank 
roundtable discussion of the U.S. concept of the Central Asian 
Corridor of Reform, Kabiri asked whether there was a place in 
that corridor for the IRPT.  The Ambassador assured Kabiri 
Secretary Rice had specifically praised Tajikistan for having 
 
SIPDIS 
the only legal Islamic party in the region taking part in the 
political life of the nation.  He told Kabiri one of the key 
points of U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia is to find 
appropriate ways to support traditional moderate Islam and 
leaders and parties that profess that view. 
 
5.  (C) Kabiri praised the Secretary for meeting with 
Tajikistan's political party leaders and especially for visiting 
the Central Mosque and Women's Madrassa.  He added that he and 
his party were chagrined that the Tajik state media, including 
the all-important television, had blacked out all coverage of 
the mosque and madrassa visits.  The Ambassador asked Kabiri to 
pass to his party members his apologies that Tajik security 
bodies had cleared the neighborhood around the mosque and 
madrassa of legitimate worshippers during the Secretary's visit. 
 This was especially regrettable during Ramadan. 
 
TAJIKISTAN'S "MANAGED DEMOCRACY" 
 
6.  (C) Kabiri noted that Tajik officials often talk about 
 
democracy, but in reality find real democracy a threat to their 
vide-grip on power, and act to suppress it.  He added that the 
IRPT itself is not as democratic as it should be, but does what 
it can within current political and cultural constraints.  For 
what has happened to democracy in Tajikistan in recent years, 
Kabiri explained the opposition's potential to use force at the 
end of the Civil War motivated the government to cooperate with 
all opposition groups and was pluralistic out of weakness.  Now, 
the ruling political elite sees no credible opposition, armed or 
otherwise, and increasingly dismisses any need for continuing 
dialogue. 
 
7.  (C) The Ambassador pointed out the Tajik government pays lip 
service to democracy and pluralism, but increasingly exerts 
greater control over every aspect of political life.  This is 
neo-Soviet "managed democracy," not real democracy and, 
unfortunately, is encouraged by Moscow.  Kabiri confessed the 
IRPT at this point would settle for a sort of managed democracy, 
if it at least had some elements of real democracy, but he fears 
that the government is becoming increasingly authoritarian. 
 
8.  (SBU) Kabiri said he had published an article in IRPT's 
newspaper, "Najot," criticizing the U.S. "double standard" in 
which the United States supposedly professes support for 
democratic values, but in fact supports authoritarian regimes in 
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan.  However, he noted, the 
U.S. reaction to the Andijon massacre in Uzbekistan had been an 
eye-opener.  He praised the United States for acting on its 
ideals.  "This did not go unnoticed," he said. 
 
9.  (C) The Ambassador said President Rahmonov seems to make 
public statements in support of Islam, but also issues 
contradictory regulations that undercut this position, like the 
recent ban on females wearing "hijab" (Islamic headscarves) in 
public schools.  Kabiri agreed and said that such actions are 
radicalizing the more conservative wing of his party.  He 
claimed that general support for the IRPT in the traditional and 
conservative parts of Tajik society had surged following this 
ill-considered edict. 
 
TOE THE LINE - AND GET RID OF THE ORANGE TIE 
 
10.  (C) The IRPT and the Communist Party of Tajikistan (CPT) 
are the only minority parties in Parliament.  Kabiri recounted 
that Chairman of the Lower House of Parliament Khairulloyev had 
told him that he (Khairulloyev) is responsible for keeping 
Kabiri and CPT Chairman Shodi Shabdalov in line - and he doesn't 
have to worry about Shabdalov. 
 
11.  (C) Kabiri recounted that he had recently, by chance, worn 
an orange necktie to a session of parliament.  Khairulloyev had 
pulled him aside and ordered him never to wear it again in 
public.  Kabiri laughed and said he had not intended to make a 
political statement in support of "color revolutions."  He 
simply has bad taste and lets his wife every morning pick out 
which tie he wears. 
 
12.  (C) More seriously, Kabiri said his primary goal as an 
"opposition politician" is to stay out of prison.  Although he 
speaks out in IRPT press releases and in the party newspaper, he 
trims his sails in parliament and generally votes with the 
government.  As a result, he has the worst of both worlds.  The 
government, he said, sees him as a dangerous radical, and the 
more conservative wing of his party sees him as a pro-Rahmonov 
lackey. 
 
13.  (C) COMMENT:  Although Rahmonov sees the IRPT as a 
 
dangerous enemy and tells some Western interlocutors it's a 
terrorist organization, he also wants to keep the IRPT in the 
Big Tent, if he feels he can control it.  IRPT Chairman Said 
Abdullo Nuri, dying of cancer, is one of the civil war warlords 
whom Rahmonov has allowed to become very wealthy.  In the world 
of Tajik politics, that gives Rahmonov control over Nuri. 
Rahmonov has no such relationship with Kabiri, and is greatly 
annoyed that he seems to be well received in Western embassies 
and capitals.  Rahomonov does not want to see Kabiri succeed 
Nuri as IRPT chairman, although the general consensus at this 
time is that Kabiri is essentially Chairman-in-Waiting until 
Nuri dies.  END COMMENT. 
 
RAHMONOV BUILDS NEW FACADE OF SUPPORT 
 
14.  (C) The Ambassador asked Kabiri for his opinion of the two 
newly registered parties - the Party of Economic Reform and the 
Agrarian Party of Tajikistan and why they have appeared now on 
the political scene (reftels A, B).  Kabiri responded that the 
parties are a calculated political creation by Rahmonov to give 
the illusion that he has multi-party support and to bolster his 
claim to "democratic" legitimacy at the same time that he works 
to marginalize the other real opposition parties. 
 
15.  (C) However, Kabiri conceded, even if the new parties are 
artificial, he welcomes them because the more political parties 
on the scene, the better.  They may mutate toward a degree of 
independence, and in the longer term multiple parties will be 
able to form various coalitions.  (COMMENT:  If in fact this is 
Kabiri's view, it's both generous and naove.  Should these new 
parties not toe Rahmonov's line, they will not continue to 
exist.  END COMMENT.) 
 
NEW-GENERATION POLITICIANS CANNOT EMERGE 
 
16.  (C) The Ambassador asked Kabiri who are the new 
politicians-in-waiting who could emerge on the national scene - 
who are making names for themselves and building constituencies, 
even at the regional and local levels?  Who are the bright young 
leaders we should pay attention to?  Kabiri had no optimistic 
answer.  He said that the "big names" from the civil war and 
post-civil-war period have been co-opted, are now in prison, or 
are simply shallow non-entities.  He suggested someone like 
Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan Chairman Zoyirov (reftel 
C) is a real leader with national potential, but no one knows 
him broadly nationwide.  If he could appear on State TV "five 
times in the next year," he'd have a real constituency.  But 
this will not happen because Rahmonov will not allow it. 
 
RUSSIAN EMBASSY NOW A "BLACK HOLE" 
 
17.  (C) The Ambassador asked Kabiri if he and his party 
maintain normal contacts at the Russian Embassy.  Kabiri said 
that under previous Russian Ambassador Peshkov, he and his party 
had "correct" contacts with Peshkov and several other Russian 
Embassy officials.  Since the arrival this summer of Ambassador 
Abdulatipov, the Russian Embassy has become a "black hole" for 
the IRPT.  No senior IRPT official has met with Abdulatipov, and 
the Russian Embassy has cut off all contact with the party. 
Kabiri commented that he is grateful he continues to have access 
to the U.S. Embassy. 
 
18.  (C) COMMENT:  Rahmonov portrays himself in public 
statements as the defender of Islam.  At the same time, he is 
working to marginalize the IRPT.  Kabiri appears genuinely to be 
moderate and to understand Western-style democratic politics. 
For this reason, he is controversial within his party, which has 
 
its base of support in the conservative rural sections of the 
country.  He may emerge as the next IRPT chairman when Nuri 
dies, but this is not a given.  Rahmonov and his minions will 
work to marginalize Kabiri in national politics, and the 
conservative wing of the IRPT may reject him.  In the meantime, 
the West should carefully find ways to support Kabiri as a 
new-generation, moderate Islamic leader.  This would include 
giving him greater political exposure at high levels, not just 
at the usual international seminars and conferences .  END 
COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
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