US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2393

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: ELECTION SURPRISE IN HONDURAS WITH ZELAYA BEATING 
LOBO DECISIVELY IN EXIT POLLS AND OAS/TSE QUICK COUNTS 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2391 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles Ford; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Approximately an hour after the polls 
officially closed in Honduras on November 27, Ingenieria 
Gerencial announced the results of their national exit polls: 
Liberal Party presidential candidate Manuel "Mel" Zelaya has 
decisively beaten National Party presidential candidate 
Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo 50.61 percent to 44.31 percent.  While 
the National Party claimed that it was far too early to call 
the election and that they had differing exit poll data, 
Zelaya effectively announced on television that he won.  The 
OAS "Quick Count" tabulation released only to the Embassy, 
however, is also reporting that Zelaya has won by 6 percent, 
and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal quick count released after 
10:00pm local showed Zelaya winning by 5.57 percent.  While 
election observers report no systemic election fraud, both 
parties have been preparing for such an accusation for 
several weeks.  Although an official announcement of victory 
has not been released, Post has found Ingenieria Gerencial 
data to be reliable, and the OAS says their quick count has 
only a one percent margin of error. 
 
Exit Polls Show Zelaya as Clear Winner 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Ingenieria Gerencial conducted a nation-wide poll from 
the opening of the polls at 0600 to prior their closing at 
1600 (polls that opened late could stay open until 1700). 
One hundred twenty thousand people were polled from 16 
departments.  According to their data, Liberal Party 
presidential candidate Manuel "Mel" Zelaya received 50.61 
percent, National Party presidential candidate Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo received 44.31 percent, Innovation and National 
Unity Party (PINU) presidential candidate Carlos Sosa Coello 
received 1.6 percent, Democratic Unification (UD) 
presidential candidate Juan Almendares received 1.54 percent, 
and Christian Democrat (CD) presidential candidate Juan 
Martinez received 0.99 percent.  While this same company 
showed Lobo winning in pre-election polls, the lead was only 
3 percent, compared to much higher spreads by every other 
public poll.  The Liberal Party had claimed that internal 
polling was showing them set to win, but no independent poll 
confirmed this claim. 
 
3. (U) The exit polls also report that National Party 
candidate for Tegucigalpa Mayor, Ricardo Alvarez, is beating 
his Liberal Party opponent, Enrique "Kike" Ortez, by 10 
percent. Surprisingly the Nationalist Party candidate in San 
Pedro Sula, Arturo "Tuky" Bendana who was leading by over 14 
percent in pre-election polls, is now showing to be losing to 
his Liberal Party opponent, Rafael Padilla Sunceri by almost 
equally high margins. 
 
4. (SBU) The OAS presidential Quick Count results also 
clearly point to a Liberal Party victory: 51.08 percent to 
the Liberal Party, 45.05 percent to the National Party 
received, 1.44 percent to CD, 1.40 percent to UD, and 1.04 
percent to PINU.  The OAS reports that voter turnout was 
approximately 60 percent and that the results are 99 percent 
accurate; 1 percent margin of error.  The OAS released this 
information only to the Embassy and at present has no plans 
to release it to anyone else, including the Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal (TSE). 
 
5. (U) At 2210 the TSE released its Quick Count numbers, 
again relaying a Zelaya win: Liberal Party 50.70 percent, 
National Party 45.22 percent, UD 1.62 percent, CD 1.35 
percent, and PINU 1.02 percent.  These numbers were generated 
from 151 tables' reporting. 
 
6. (U) At 2230 Ingenieria Gerencial was reporting that the 
raw vote total shows Zelaya leading by 5 percent. 
 
 
Lobo Holding Out for Official Count 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) While Zelaya has appeared on television clearly 
overjoyed and effectively announcing his victory, Lobo and 
his VP candidate, Mario Canahuati, have made multiple 
appearances on television arguing that exit poll data cannot 
be trusted due to a higher than usual rate of people refusing 
to talk to exit pollsters and encouraging National Party 
members to stay at their tables and the keep going with the 
official counting.  Lobo and the Nationalists have pointed to 
early data that out of final electoral table results counted 
by media outlets, the race was close, with Lobo claiming a 2 
percent lead.  Though this data might be technically 
accurate, most of these initial electoral tables were located 
in Tegucigalpa, which Lobo appears to have won. 
 
8. (SBU) OAS observers, including 50  Embassy contingent, 
report no evidence of systemic fraud that would have altered 
the overall result.  There were minor irregularities at many 
election tables but nothing egregious.  A large domestic 
observation effort led by civil society with USG assistance 
was conducted but has yet to release any public statement. 
Aside from a few National vs. Liberal scuffles after the exit 
poll data was released, the day was quite peaceful. 
 
 
President Zelaya? 
----------------- 
 
9. (SBU) Comment: While pre-election polls showed an election 
with Lobo winning but essentially too close to call, 
post-election exit polls and the OAS presidential Quick Count 
show a decisive Zelaya win.  Speculation is that Liberals 
came out in large numbers in the departments of Cortes (San 
Pedro Sula) and Yoro (El Progreso) pushing the election in 
Zelaya's favor.  Although official results have not been 
released, Post feels confident that Mel Zelaya has beaten 
Pepe Lobo.  Cries of election fraud remain a possibility, 
though the next Honduran President seems decided.  The look 
and shape of the Congress is far from certain, however, with 
congressional vote counting and the application of 
proportionality likely taking up to two weeks. 
 
10. (C) Comment continued:  With the National Party 
apparently still unable to win back-to-back presidential 
elections, the party is in somewhat a state of shock.  In 
PolChief's conversations with senior National Party officials 
the evening of November 27, Nationalists echoed their public 
talking points while revealing that they were clearly not 
prepared for what appears to be the inevitable outcome.  Lobo 
appears not to have been able to throw off the albatross of 
being the incumbent party, with Alvarez's mayoral win (a near 
certainty for months) becoming the best news of the night for 
his party.  Zelaya's campaign chief, meanwhile, was jubilant 
in a conversation with PolChief.  At 2230 it appeared that 
Lobo would not make any concession speech and thus the 
Ambassador refrained from calling either candidate.  End 
Comment. 
Ford