US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4878

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004878 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2025 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, KE, Referendum, Kibaki 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KIBAKI SACKS CABINET, KEEPS PARLIAMENT 
OUT 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4838 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1 
.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: After conceding November 22 the defeat of 
his proposed new constitution in the previous day's national 
referendum, President Kibaki moved swiftly to assert his 
leadership.  He dismissed his entire (and entirely 
disfunctional) cabinet November 23; seeking to ward off 
preparations for a vote of no-confidence, he indefinitely 
suspended November 24 the return of Parliament (planned for 
next week).  Echoing pre-referendum talk, opponents of the 
draft called for immediate general elections, which remains 
among Kibaki's own options.  Alternatively, the president 
could take steps to mend political divisions as he seeks to 
create his new cabinet over the next two weeks.  Assembling a 
team to continue the constitutional review process will be 
one, but not the only, issue to be hammered out.  Kibaki is 
at the crossroads of his tenure; he has to decide if he will: 
seek new elections; or, try to go about business as usual; 
or, govern for all Kenyans and rechart a course for the 
national reform agenda for the remainder (two years?) of his 
administration.  END SUMMARY. 
 
A GOVERNMENT OF TWO 
------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Barely 24 hours after conceding the defeat of the 
draft constitution he had backed (reftel), President Kibaki 
announced November 23 the dismissal of his entire cabinet. 
In a terse televised statement, Kibaki said he took this 
constitutionally-authorized step and will soon appoint new 
Ministers and Assistant Ministers "to make (the government) 
more cohesive and better able to serve the people of Kenya." 
Leaving in place his Vice President, and the ministries' 
Permanent Secretaries (senior-most career civil servants, who 
insiders tell us are likely the next to go after new 
ministers are named), the president added that he planned to 
"reconstitute" his government within two weeks.  Following 
renewed calls by his "Orange" (anti-draft) critics for snap 
elections, Kibaki backed up his dissolution of government by 
suspending Parliament November 24.  The National Assembly had 
been set to return to session on November 29.  The president, 
constitutionally empowered to set the schedule for 
parliament, did not give a timeframe for the legislature's 
return, but after the planned two-week session, the next 
assembly was not to be until February or March 2006. He may 
constitutionally delay the sitting of parliament for as long 
as one year since its last meeting. 
 
SNAP TO IT? 
----------- 
 
3.  (C) Kibaki's actions were quickly met by calls from 
"Orange" leaders for immediate general elections, which had 
also circulated prior to the November 21 referendum. 
Speaking to diplomats on November 25, anti-draft constitution 
former Planning Minister Professor Anyang Nyongo' cited new 
elections as one of the President's options, but did not 
offer his opinion on the wisdom of doing so. 
Constitutionally, had the president dissolved, and not just 
prorogued, parliament, general elections for Parliament (and 
thus the President, as well) would be due within three 
months. 
 
KIBAKI'S OPTIONS 
---------------- 
 
4.  (C) The defeat of the draft constitution presents Kibaki 
with both the greatest challenge and opportunity of his 
presidency.  Kibaki has three options for what he can do 
next, for the constitution, and for government.  He could, as 
those opposed to him are calling for, announce general 
elections now, well before the required late 2007 vote. 
Alternatively, he could leave all MPs in place, and look to 
build a new government, starting with a new cabinet and a 
team to continue the constitutional reform process.  With 
respect to the cabinet, he could go one of two ways: either 
reach out to the rebels in his (now-dissolved) cabinet and to 
the formal opposition in a gesture of unification, or pack 
his new cabinet with "Yes" (pro-draft constitution) men and 
women.  In doing the latter, Kibaki would be pursuing his 
third option: to go about business as usual.  Kibaki's 
current predicament is an opportunity for him to demonstrate 
real leadership by looking to mend political divisions, 
reenergize the government's reform agenda (anti-corruption 
agenda) and deliver a new constitution, as promised. 
 
5.  (C) Even if inclined to reach out, the President's 
ability to do so is limited by how committed the "Orange" 
leadership is to working with Kibaki.  They clearly see himt 
as weakened by the referendum defeat, and thus seek to press 
their advantage.  The Orange team itself has yet to 
articulate its plan for next steps, beyond calls for fresh 
elections.  One Nyanza Province MP told Poloff November 23 
that they were just getting together to discuss the way 
forward.  One key indicator will be the November 26 prayer 
and thanks-giving rally planned for Nairobi, during which 
"Orange" leaders are likely to address their willingness to 
re-enter the government, their conditions for doing so and 
their calls for new elections. 
 
6.  (SBU) Members of parliament who spoke to diplomats 
November 25 espoused creating a government that brings 
differing views together.  Nobel Laureate and now-former 
assistant minister Wangari Maathai (who had declared herself 
neutral in the "Banana-Orange" debate) said that to rebuild 
trust among political leaders, Kibaki needed to revisit the 
2003 power-sharing memorandum of understanding that built the 
NARC coalition.  (The MOU was soon ignored, however, and the 
coalition has riven by splits ever since.)  Any new 
government cannot be stable, she cautioned, without 
addressing the issue of the memorandum.  "Orange" leader 
Professor Nyongo' further suggested Kibaki should look to 
repair divisions by appealing to a "transitional government 
of national unity."  Nyeri MP Mutahi Kagwe noted that "sober 
minds" ought to prevail in creating a unified government. 
The MPs concurred that thus far the President's advisers had 
misguided him. 
 
COMMENT: PRESIDENT AT A CROSSROADS 
---------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The referendum result and Kibaki's actions against 
the cabinet and parliament present challenges to both the 
president and the opposition "Orange" leaders.  But the 
greater onus remains on Kibaki.  Kenyans are exhausted by the 
just-concluded 3-month referendum campaign.  The public is 
not hankering just now for new elections. (Indeed, opposition 
calls for new elections may simply be a pressure tactic.) 
But Kenyans do want leadership and governance -- attributes 
virtually non-existent for many months as the country's 
political class has been consumed by the constitutional 
debate.  That debate will not fade entirely; Kenyans still 
want a new constitution - just not the one they decisively 
shot down this week.  The President must now find a way to 
return the Kenyan government to the business of governance. 
Kibaki has bought himself time by postponing parliament and 
forestalling a possible vote of no confidence.  He now has 
the opportunity to reassemble a majority coalition and show 
himself to be a competent and flexible leader -- one who has 
heard, and will now heed, the public's call.  In the absence 
of that, Kenyans may indeed welcome the prospect of going to 
the polls again.  But thus far, the vast majority of Kenyans 
remain willing to give him another chance to succeed. 
BELLAMY