US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8911

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 008911 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG, Parliamentary Elections, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: SECOND STAGE RUNOFFS: MORE VIOLENCE, 
SIMILAR RESULTS 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 8875 
     B. CAIRO 8822 
     C. CAIRO 8786 
     D. CAIRO 8745 
 
Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Runoffs for People's Assembly seats took 
place on November 26 in seven provinces.  The November 26 
polls were marred by street fighting, charges that security 
forces blocked access to some polling places, and charges 
that domestic monitors were threatened "systematically" and 
denied access to various polling places.  Results indicate 
that Muslim Brotherhood candidates made another strong 
showing, as did independents affiliated the National 
Democratic Party.  Several well-known NDP figures, including 
the sitting Minister of Irrigation and the former Agriculture 
Minister, lost their seats.  End summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
Mayhem, Chaos, Mar Runoffs... 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Runoffs for People's Assembly seats were staged on 
November 26 in Alexandria, the Nile Delta provinces of 
Beheira, Gharbiyya, Qalyoubia, and Port Said, as well as the 
Upper Egypt provinces of Qena and Fayyoum.  The day saw a 
significant spike in thug violence, voter intimidation, 
denial of voter access and arrests of supporters of the 
Muslim Brotherhood, as documented by domestic monitoring 
groups (paras 8-10), noted by contacts, and reported in the 
domestic and international media.  A particular flashpoint 
was Tanta, where approximately 1500 Muslim Brotherhood 
supporters laid seige to the polling station at the Sayed 
Erian School, after electoral officials closed the station 
early.  Thugs allegedly working for the local NDP candidate, 
former soccer star Ahmed Shobeir, intervened violently to 
disperse the crowd, as police fired tear gas.  Twenty MB 
supporters were reportedly sent to the hospital. 
 
3. (C) Tear gas was also used to disperse angry crowds 
protesting early closings in Ghorbal, Alexandria, and in Port 
Said, as a number of MB supporters, including the son of 
local MB incumbent Akram al-Shaer, were arrested.  The Muslim 
Brotherhood claimed that up 800 of its supporters were 
arrested on November 26 and the two days proceeding, while 
most media estimates put the number at 300-600.  An American 
journalist who was among those tear-gassed in Ghorbal told 
poloff that the protest had started when security forces 
blocked access to the local polling station to all voters, 
including the local MB candidate, and only allowed those 
bussed in to vote.  Thugs allegedly working for the local NDP 
candidate brawled with local MB supporters.  "The good news 
is that the thugs here didn't have machetes, like those in 
Damanhour last week," (ref B) he quipped. 
 
--------------------- 
...As Trends Continue 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) The runoffs for 122 seats on November 26 closed the 
second of three stages for the 2005 People's Assembly 
elections.  The elections are now 2/3 complete, with the 
final round scheduled to commence on December 1, with runoffs 
on December 7.  Egyptian and international media are carrying 
different reports of the final results for the second stage, 
reflecting the fact that results for all races have not yet 
been certified by the Parliamentary Elections Commission. 
 
5. (SBU) Our best count of results for the second stage is as 
follows: 
 
NDP Candidates...............................31 
Independent Candidates (linked to NDP).......42 
Muslim Brotherhood...........................36 
Wafd......................................... 2 
Other Independents...........................8 
 
6. (C) The results reflect a continuance of the trends 
started in the first stage:  Official nominees of the NDP 
were outperformed by party rivals who ran as independents 
after they failed to get the official nod.  The Muslim 
Brothers (MB) also continued their march forward.  The MBs 
may now have as many as 82 seats in the 444-seat People's 
Assembly and appear poised to easily exceed their initially 
stated goal of securing 90 seats in the new parliament.  The 
officially recognized opposition parties have also been 
pushed farther into the margins of the Egyptian political 
stage.  The NDP should still easily retain their 2/3 majority 
in parliament, and thus preserve the GOE's ability to push 
through its legislative agenda, but the tone and atmospherics 
of much parliamentary debate will inevitably be altered by 
the dramatic increase in Islamist representation. 
 
---------------- 
Symbolic Defeats 
---------------- 
7. (C) Of the dozens of races fought on November 26, several 
deserve special mention: 
 
-- Former Minister of Agriculture Youssef Wally, who was 
removed from the cabinet in the summer of 2004 with little 
fanfare after a three decade cabinet tenure, lost his seat to 
a Muslim Brotherhood candidate in Fayyoum, the desert oasis 
southwest of Cairo.  Wally, who had also served as 
Secretary-General of the NDP for over a decade, epitomized 
 
SIPDIS 
for many observers the corruption of the ruling party's "old 
guard." 
-- Alexandria University President Mohammed Abdellah, another 
long-serving NDP operative who had been trying to straddle 
the divide between party reform circles and the "old guard," 
fell to an independent rival (and sitting MP) in the 
Alexandria district of Montazah. 
 
-- Khaled Mohieldin, the 84 year old honorary chairman of the 
leftist Tagammu' Party, was defeated by a Muslim Brotherhood 
candidate in the Kafr Shukr constituency in the Nile Delta 
province of Qalyoubia.  Mohieldin, a respected "national 
figure" for his role as one of the "free officers" who 
overthrew the monarchy, is a living link to the Nasser era 
and a die-hard advocate of Nasser's notions of 
centrally-planned economics and robust secular nationalism. 
 
-- Minister of Irrigation Mahmoud Abou Zeid also lost his 
seat in the Nile Delta province of Gharbiyaa to an 
independent rival.  (However, Minister of Agriculture Ahmed 
el-Leithy won in Wadi Natroun, Beheira Province.) 
 
----------------- 
Monitors Cry Foul 
----------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Domestic monitoring groups issued initial reports 
late on November 26 and on November 27.  They reported 
increased difficulties for their staff in accessing the "vast 
majority" of polling stations.  The Independent Coalition for 
Electoral Monitoring (ICEM), which had approximately 1500 
observers deployed to monitor 121 races, also reported that 
"most" of its observers were denied access to counting 
centers despite many of them having previously secured 
official permission from the Ministry of Justice.  ICEM also 
charged that: 
 
--security forces who cordoned off a number of polling 
stations appeared to be denying access to the stations by any 
voters who appeared (by virtue of beards/veils/other 
indicators) to be MB supporters; 
 
--thugs apparently supportive of NDP candidates attacked 
waiting voters at several polling stations; 
 
--MB candidates were arrested in Port Said, Beheira, and 
Fayoum; and MB supporters were arrested in those locations, 
as well as Alexandria, Qena, and Gharbiya; 
 
--opposition and independent party/candidate agents were 
denied access to polling stations; 
 
--vote-buying was documented in Beheira, Suez, and Gharbiya; 
 
-- ICEM also charged that its monitors had been 
"systematically targetted" with threats and intimidation and 
at least one of its staff, a monitor in Ismailiya had been 
badly beaten by thugs and hospitalized. 
 
9.  (SBU) The Egyptian Association for Supporting Democracy 
(EASD) also reported on a number of problems, including: 
 
--increased violence; 
 
--flagrant vote-buying and other fraud; 
 
--NDP candidates used public transportation to bus supporters 
en masse to the polls; 
 
--apparent security intervention to keep some voters away 
from the polls. 
 
10. (SBU) EASD also praised a number of supervisory judges 
who chose to suspend voting in several instances where 
security forces appeared to be working to keep certain 
prospective voters away from the polls.  The dozen or so 
expatriate surveyors working for the National Democratic 
Institute (NDI) were also in the field on November 26.  Their 
findings, which were shared with post by the NDI Country 
Director, tracked closely with those of the domestic 
observers. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE