US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2391

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002391 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: FIST STRONGER THAN AN OPEN HAND - 2 DAYS TO 
HONDURAN ELECTIONS LOBO CONTINUES TO LEAD ZELAYA 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 2385 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     B. TEGUCIGALPA 2355 
     C. TEGUCIGALPA 2347 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James Williard; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Three days before the November 27 general 
elections and National Party Presidential candidate Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo still holds a slight lead over Liberal Party 
presidential candidate Manuel "Mel" Zelaya - leading by 
nearly 3 percent in all major cities, according to most 
recent poll.  On November 25, Ambassador sent both Lobo and 
Zelaya informal notes encouraging behavior that would promote 
free and fair elections.  With the campaigns officially 
having ended November 21, the Embassy still formally judges 
the November 27 election as still too close to call, with the 
race not signicantly changing since ref C's analysis of the 
race.  Final campaign rallies, however, seem to add weight to 
the belief, however, that Lobo is primed to win.  While Post 
continues to be concerned with post-election allegations of 
fraud, especially if Lobo does indeed win, violent 
demonstrations are not anticipated. End Summary. 
 
Lobo Leads Zelaya in Polls - But Statistically A Dead Heat 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The most recent polls conducted nationally by 
Ingenieria Gerencial show National Party candidate and 
President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo edging Liberal 
Party candidate Manuel "Mel" Zelaya as of late November 22. 
The 2.7 percent to 3 percent overall lead is barely above 
margin of error, however.  In San Pedro Sula, Lobo leads by 
2.62 percent, in Tegucigalpa by 6 percent, and in all other 
areas, by 1.48 percent.  While other published polls show a 
much greater Lobo lead, Post has found the Ingenieria 
Gerencial polls to be the most reliable in Honduras. 
 
3. (SBU) Other key National Party candidates also show large 
leads over their Liberal Party counterparts.  National Party 
candidate for Tegucigalpa Mayor, Ricardo Alvarez, is beating 
his Liberal Party opponent, Enrique "Kike" Ortez, by 18 
percent according to the November 22 Ingenieria Gerencial 
poll.  The Nationalist Party candidate in San Pedro Sula, 
Arturo "Tuky" Bendana, now leads his Liberal Party opponent, 
Rafael Padilla Sunceri, by 14 percent in the same poll, in 
what was previously a tossup (ref B). 
 
Closing Rallies Differences Parallel Candidates Differences 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
4. (C) With campaigning officially ending November 21 at 
midnight, both the National and Liberal parties held final 
rallies the evenings of November 21 in a last big push to win 
votes.  Approximately 3,000 supporters were in attendance at 
the Liberal Party rally. The event was scheduled to begin at 
4:00pm, although little else than the blasting of Zelaya's 
campaign jingle and the sale of "Mel" CDs, hats, and banners 
occurred until roughly 5:30pm.  At that time, Zelaya, his VP 
candidate, Kike Ortez, and various other congressional 
candidates and aides crammed the very full stage.  A 
microphone was passed to various congressional candidates in 
a series of underwhelming speeches.  When Zelaya finally took 
the spotlight, his speech was equally fatigued.  The issues 
he addressed were "citizen power" and a need for a change of 
administration.  While the speech itself was neither new nor 
particularly inspiring, it was further denigrated as Zelaya 
passed the microphone on to others to speak after he did; 
lessening his and his speech's central importance.  Zelaya's 
ads, meanwhile, have been pitching a life sentence vs. the 
death penalty, double the number of cops, and using a clip of 
Lobo's main primary candidate, Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel 
Pastor, criticizing Lobo for his links to corruption.  Zelaya 
has also named former General Alvaro Romero as his future 
Minister of Public Security and Rafael Pineda Ponce as his 
future Minister of Education to try to attract votes. 
 
5. (C) Approximately 6,000 people filled the baseball stadium 
for the National Party final rally.  The event began only 
somewhat late and was clearly choreographed to end with an 
energizing speech by its presidential candidate, Pepe Lobo, 
and comments from the charismatic former Minister of Public 
Security Oscar Alvarez.  (Lobo was preceded by Ricardo 
Alvarez and Lobo's wife.)  In addition to being significantly 
larger than the Liberal Party's rally - buses filled the 
roads leading to the stadium revealing the National Party's 
reach - the rally was also better organized and better 
funded.  Fireworks emphasized points and there was a second 
stage that jettisoned into the crowd so that speakers were 
separated from the masses of other congressional candidates 
and aides on the main stage.  The National Party image of the 
closed, raised fist easily created energy and enthusiasm; in 
sharp contrast the Liberal Party's open-hand.  Lobo spoke 
about various themes (expropriation of property for land 
reform, job creation, etc.), but it was his points about the 
anti-gang law that seemed to generate the largest reactions. 
The Lobo campaign ads hit hard against Zelaya for his alleged 
support for the Mara Salvatrucha gang in a complaint before 
the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and the 
Liberal judges on the Supreme Court for not yet signing the 
decree upholding the constitutionality of the anti-gang law. 
 
Too Close to Call 
----------------- 
 
6. (C) Comment: The presidential race is still too close to 
call. While Lobo and the National Party appear to have the 
advantage in both the polls and organizationally, the "hidden 
vote" continues to make the race a toss-up.  Therefore, 
turnout is key, and the election observation efforts, both 
OAS and domestic, are even more crucial to ensure a 
transparent election process and stymie anticipated cries of 
election fraud once the results have been released.  While 
the supporters of both parties seemed to be similar - all 
ages represented, all from a similar socio-economic 
background - the look, feel, and organization of the final 
campaign rallies could be an indicator of the possible end 
result. End Comment. 
Ford