US embassy cable - 05PRAGUE1649

UNCLAS PRAGUE 001649 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, EZ 
SUBJECT: CZECH CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS:  STRUGGLE FOR SOUL OF 
THE PARTY COULD HAVE LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) in the 
Czech Republic, a numerically small force, have traditionally 
exercised an influence beyond their numbers, staking out the 
middle ground in order to maintain the option of forming 
coalition governments with larger parties either to their 
left or right. After the 2002 election, the party teamed up 
with the Social Democrats (CSSD) and one other small liberal 
party to form the current ruling coalition. But the party's 
current Chairman, Miroslav Kalousek, elected two years ago 
and reelected to a four-year term this month, has 
increasingly broken ranks with the Social Democrats (CSSD) 
and adopted several conservative positions that have pulled 
the party to the right.  This is likely to set the stage for 
a right of-center alliance with the Civic Democrats (ODS), 
should they be the winners in next summer's election.  If the 
Christian Democrats link themselves too strongly to the Civic 
Democrats and this right-of-center partnership fails to form 
a government, it will most likely mean the end of Kalousek's 
leadership, and possibly even the eventual end of the party 
in parliament. END SUMMARY. 
 
TIGHTENING THE TIES TO ODS 
 
2. (SBU) President Vaclav Klaus, who is honorary Chairman and 
co-founder of ODS, this month attended the KDU-CSL annual 
party congress, the first time a sitting president has done 
so. KDU-CSL -- whose leader brought down former PM Gross 
earlier this year, and a party with a reputation as an 
untrustworthy political ally -- was praised by Klaus as a 
force for stability. Klaus pointed out, much to the party's 
credit, that its three ministers in the current government 
are among the longest serving:  of the 17 members of the 
cabinet created in the summer of 2002, only six are still in 
office, three of whom are from KDU-CSL: Foreign Minister 
Svoboda, Environment Minister Ambrozek, and Transport 
Minister Simonovsky. One reason some observers say Klaus is 
trying to help another political party is the fact that Czech 
presidents are chosen by parliament. Klaus, who would very 
much like to be reelected for a second presidential term in 
2008, knows that the parliament that is elected next summer 
will choose the next president in 2008. Just as KDU-CSL might 
need ODS to stay in parliament, President Klaus might need 
KDU-CSL to stay on as president. 
 
3.  (U) The first speaker at the KDU-CSL Congress this month 
was current ODS Chair, Mirek Topolanek. Topolanek stood 
before a large banner proclaiming, "Socialni Jistoty Bez 
Socialmu" (Social stability, without socialism), and took 
KDU-CSL to task for providing the political cover CSSD needed 
to increase their cooperation with the Communists. But 
Topolanek went on to say that he would welcome KDU-CSL as 
partners in a government that would keep the Communists from 
reasserting their influence. Kalousek is also scheduled to 
speak at the ODS annual party congress this weekend. No 
speakers have been invited from any other Czech political 
parties. 
 
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTITUDINAL TRENDS AGAINST KDU-CSL 
 
4. (U) A significant number of KDU-CSL members are 
uncomfortable with the positions that Kalousek has taken, his 
confrontational style, and the result these have had on the 
party. Deputy Chairman Jan Kasal argued at the congress that 
the party should maintain its religious roots, but could show 
a bit more tolerance and flexibility. He argued, for example, 
that abortion should be allowed when the health of the mother 
is threatened. Church attendance and belief in God among 
Czechs have declined steadily over the last decade. A recent 
EU poll shows only 19% of Czechs believe in God.  The 
Catholic Church lost a third of its members in the 1990s and 
other churches showed even larger declines.  The Czech 
Republic is arguably the most secularized country in the EU. 
By linking its lot inextricably with the Church, KDU-CSL also 
makes it harder to attract new members. In fact, the 
Christian Democrats had 44,800 members last year, 15,600 less 
than in 1998. 
 
5. (U) Demographics are not in the party,s favor either. The 
average age of party members is 62.  At the recent party 
congress, the party leadership voted to amend past practices 
and increase the electoral terms for party leaders from two 
years to four, in spite of an impassioned plea from a member 
of the party,s youth wing that such a move would keep any up 
and comers out of any active leadership roles for an 
additional four years, and make it hard for the party to 
field appealing, experienced young candidates in 2010. 
 
6. (U) In addition, the party's positions on a number of 
issues seem to run counter to current trends. The party has 
 
adopted a hard line on narcotics just as the country is 
leaning towards non-criminalization of the possession of 
small amounts of soft drugs. The party promotes family values 
in its published platform. But Czechs have the third lowest 
birth-rate in the world, behind only China with its one-child 
policy, and Hong Kong, where housing shortages and career 
ambitions have led to one-child families. KDU-CSL is the only 
Czech party for whom faith plays any role. KDU is strongly 
opposed to abortion, communism, same-sex marriage, and 
tolerance towards so called soft drugs; and strongly in favor 
of family values and entrepreneurism. For the U.S., KDU-CSL's 
decreasing numbers represent the potential loss of a 
like-minded partner. 
 
7. (SBU) COMMENT: If Kalousek's gamble pays off and 
ODS/KDU-CSL get enough votes to form a government, then 
Kalousek will be in a strong position. He could push for 
KDU-CSL maintaining its three, or possibly even more cabinet 
seats, which would be good for U.S. interests. Foreign 
Minister Svoboda has been particularly good for US-Czech 
ties. Svoboda's personal crusade against the regime in Cuba 
has even led to threats against him and his family. 
 
8. (SBU) In the most recent poll of political preferences, 
released November 17, KDU-CSL was supported by just 6.3%, a 
drop of 2.1% from the October poll.  This leaves them just 
above the 5% threshold for entry into parliament.  They 
should make it into parliament next year, and will almost 
certainly do all they can to link up with whichever party 
forms a government. But if Paroubek's CSSD decides it doesn't 
need KDU-CSL, and the Christian Democrats spend four years in 
the opposition, the party could have trouble getting 5% in 
2010. The current demographic and opinion trends, if 
unchanged, will exacerbate the party's decline. Small 
opposition parties can easily become extraparliamentary 
parties and in the Czech Republic, those tend to become and 
remain politically insignificant. 
CABANISS