US embassy cable - 05FRANKFURT8530

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 008530 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, GM 
SUBJECT: Upcoming Elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Rheinland- 
Pfalz 
 
REF: a) Berlin 3671, b) 04 Frankfurt 5551 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: Voters in Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz 
will go to the polls in March, the first state election test for 
the "grand coalition" government in Berlin.  Most observers 
expect that both state governments will win reelection. 
Rheinland-Pfalz Minister-President (M-P) Kurt Beck (SPD/Social 
Democrats) has fared well despite the party's turmoil at the 
national level.  Baden-Wuerttemberg SPD challenger Ute Vogt, in 
contrast, has come under heavy fire for her role in the 
resignation of former national SPD chairman Franz Muentefering 
(ref A).  END SUMMARY. 
 
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B-W CDU/FDP Coalition Confident of Re-Election 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2. (SBU) For Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) Minister-President Guenther 
Oettinger (CDU/Christian Democrats) -- who took office in April 
2005 -- the March elections will be his first important test. 
Political observers say that the state's present CDU/FDP (Free 
Democrat) coalition is likely to win re-election.  Both CDU and 
FDP representatives have told us that by March, the electorate 
will not yet feel the full effects of painful reforms on the 
national level, limiting the potential protest vote against the 
CDU.  Moreover, with a grand coalition in Berlin, SPD candidates 
will be constrained in attacking the CDU-led state government. 
 
3. (SBU) The state's FDP leadership, encouraged by their strong 
showing in the national elections, are confident they can repeat 
their third-place showing.  The party has overcome last year's 
leadership crisis when both FDP state ministers had to resign in 
a corruption scandal (ref B).  The FDP's new standard-bearer, 
Justice Minister Ulrich Goll, is increasingly popular.  FDP 
General Manager Olaf Bentlage told us that after the election, 
Goll will claim a more influential portfolio such as interior or 
education. 
 
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B-W SPD Falls Further Behind; Greens Consider New Partners 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
4. (SBU) The Baden-Wuerttemberg SPD -- seldom a leading force 
within that conservative state (it trailed the CDU by 12 points 
in 2001) -- has fallen further behind as a result of Vogt's 
controversial role at the national party.  During the recent SPD 
leadership quarrels, Ute Vogt voted for left-wing candidate 
Andrea Nahles (whose nomination to be Secretary-General prompted 
Muentefering to resign as party chairman).  Afterwards, Vogt 
pleaded publicly that "if I had known the consequences, I would 
have decided otherwise."  Vogt's perceived waffling angered state 
caucus members, two of whom told a Consulate representative that 
the party would have ousted Vogt if it did not face an election 
in five months.  M-P Oettinger and others openly questioned 
Vogt's leadership qualifications.  While Social Democrats are 
busy with damage control, the pragmatic state Greens have again 
signaled that they would consider a coalition with the B-W CDU 
(if the CDU and FDP do not win a majority).  Leading Green 
politicians say privately that they are convinced a broad-based 
coalition would work under the liberal-leaning Oettinger. 
 
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Rheinland-Pfalz: M-P Beck Stands Tall in Berlin Crisis 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
5. (SBU) The recent leadership turmoil within the national SPD 
has had positive repercussions for Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) Minister- 
President Kurt Beck, who also serves as a deputy party chairman 
at the national level.  In coalition negotiations and in the wake 
of Muentefering's resignation, Beck emerged as a prominent party 
figure nationally.  In Karlsruhe, the national party elected him 
"first" deputy chairman with an impressive 92.2% of the vote.  At 
the November 12 state convention in Ludwigshafen, Beck received 
99.5% as standard-bearer for state elections.  Beck is popular 
and leads the only SPD/FDP coalition in Germany; both SPD and FDP 
representatives are upbeat regarding their accomplishments and 
the functioning of their coalition.  The FDP are likely to remain 
in coalition with the Social Democrats, according to observers. A 
new obstacle for Beck will be the emergence of the Left Party 
(which polled 5.6 percent state-wide in September Bundestag 
elections). 
 
6. (SBU) The R-P Christian Democrats enter the campaign with 
state and caucus chairman Christoph Boehr again as standard- 
bearer (following internal party wrangling in which no serious 
challenger emerged).  In contrast to Beck's high approval rating, 
Boehr has limited popularity within the party and  electorate 
even in relatively conservative Rheinland-Pfalz (in Bundestag 
elections this year, the CDU edged out the SPD within the state). 
To win in March, Boehr will need to disprove critics who say he 
lacks the charisma to edge out Beck. 
7. (SBU) The R-P Greens enter the campaign from a weakened 
position -- having lost power at the national level and facing 
competition from the new Left Party -- and see little prospect of 
outrunning the FDP or entering state government.  M-P Beck has 
never campaigned for a red-green coalition at the state level, an 
additional handicap.  The party's official goal is to match the 
6.9 percent it received in 2001 (the Greens' best showing ever), 
but a state party leader confided that Greens would be happy to 
poll six percent. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8. (SBU) The March elections may serve as a first, albeit very 
early, barometer for the grand coalition.  Re-election in 
Rheinland-Pfalz would further strengthen M-P Beck's national 
standing.  In B-W, a strong CDU performance could enable M-P 
Oettinger to step out of the shadow of his long-serving 
predecessor Erwin Teufel and gain national visibility.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
BODDE