US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN2065

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002065 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: COE DELEGATION TO OBSERVE IN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT 
OF POLLING PLACES 
 
REF: YEREVAN 2061 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Supporters and opponents of Armenia's November 27 
referendum have shifted their focus to the capital in the 
final days before the ballot.  Competing rallies have drawn 
lower-than-expected attendance and there have been few 
reports of confrontation.  While most political observers 
expect irregularities as votes are cast, documenting these 
irregularities will be difficult.  The Council of Europe's 
election observation commission -- just ten observers in all 
and the only official international observers for the 
referendum -- told us that they will only be able to cover an 
estimated 120 polling places during this weekend's balloting. 
 The GOAM claims, however, that it has registered 16,000 
local observers for the election.  It is not yet clear 
exactly how many votes are needed for a "yes" win as the 
Central Election Commission has not yet posted the total 
number of voters registered.  With such a weak international 
component of official observers, it will take longer than 
usual to reach a judgment about the conduct of the ballot. 
We understand the EU presidency plans to delay issuance of a 
statement until November 29; we propose that it would be 
prudent to wait as well.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
DELEGATION CAN ONLY HIT 120 POLLING STATIONS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) According to the Tomas Jirsa, head of the Council of 
Europe's (CoE) election observeration mission, the CoE teams 
will only be able to cover less than five percent of polling 
places (an estimated 120 stations) during the November 27 
referendum on constitutional amendments.  The ten-person CoE 
delegation arrived late November 24 and is meeting with GOAM 
officials and political figures in advance of this weekend's 
vote.  The Ambassador participated in a briefing together 
with local embassies in an effort to bring the delegation up 
to speed on the political atmosphere and technical 
preparations for the election.  We have obtained a copy of 
the delegation's 25-point observation questionnaire that they 
created from larger OSCE observation documents.  Jirsa said 
the delegation will hold a press conference on November 28 
(1400hrs local time) to make a statement on their findings. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
CEC STILL WILL NOT GIVE AN OFFICIAL TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
3. (C) Armenia's Central Election Commission told us that 
they have accredited 16,000 observers for this weekend's 
referendum.  The CEC delayed the widely-anticipated 
announcement of the official total number of registered 
voters against which the threshold for passage will be 
calculated (ref) until late on November 26. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
RALLIES ATTRACT HUNDREDS, NOT THOUSANDS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Rallies planned for November 24 and 25 in downtown 
Yerevan have proven mostly uneventful, although the 
opposition accused law enforcement officials of provoking a 
violent scuffle in the Yerevan district of Malatia-Sebastia 
late November 24.  The local press reports that a man was 
hospitalized as a result of the incident.  The opposition 
supporter claims he was beaten by police while the police 
claim he was resisting arrest.  We observed protesters in the 
hundreds during peaceful events on November 24 and 25 that 
included an automobile caravan through downtown Yerevan and 
an open-air meeting.  These numbers contradicted earlier 
claims by opposition leaders (made in the press and to us 
privately) predicting that thousands of supporters would meet 
for the pre-vote protests. 
 
5.  (C) The government announced that Opera Square -- the 
site of large protest rallies in 2003 and 2004 -- was booked 
for 72 hours of concerts dedicated to the "Yes" campaign from 
November 27-29.  Opponents of the referendum will either have 
to move their gatherings away from the center or risk giving 
the GOAM a way to declare their event illegal. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C)    With so few international observers accredited, it 
will be difficult to come quickly to an objective view about 
the conduct of the referendum.  The most authoritative local 
observer group, the NDI-supported "It's Your Choice" NGO 
plans to wait until Tuesday, November 29 to make a statement 
to the press.  The UK Charge told us that he will delay an EU 
statement until November 29 as well, but is not sure that he 
will be able to restrain all of his colleagues.  While there 
will be strong demand from the press for the U.S. to make a 
statement on November 28, we believe it would be best to wait 
until all reports are in. 
EVANS