US embassy cable - 05ISLAMABAD17421

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 ISLAMABAD 017421 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO PASS TO USAID 
USAID/W FOR A/AID ANDREW NATSIOS, JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, RTHAYER, BDEEMER 
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA 
SOUTH ASIA RESPONSE MANAGEMENT TEAM 
SOUTH ASIA EARTHQUAKE TASK FORCE 
DCHA/FFP FOR JONATHAN DWORKEN 
ANE DEPUTY ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR MARK WARD 
BANGKOK FOR OFDA SENIOR REGIONAL ADVISOR TOM DOLAN 
KATHMANDU FOR OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR WILLIAM BERGER 
ROME PASS FODAG 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND NKYLOH 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
EUCOM FOR POLA/J3/J4/J5 
BRUSSELS FOR USAID PLERNER 
NEW YORK FOR TMALY 
SECDEF FOR SOLIC/PKHA, USDP/J3 
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC FOR J3/J4/J5 
HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE FOR J3/J5 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, AEMR, ASEC, MASS, ECON, KMDR, KPAO, OIIP, OPRC, PGOV, PREL, PK, Earthquake, Earthquake: USAID/DART Situation Report 
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN - EARTHQUAKE: USAID/DART SITUATION REPORT 
15: THE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE IN EARTHQUAKE-AFFECTED AREAS 
 
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Summary 
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1. With the onset of winter, some Pakistanis living at 
higher elevations are beginning to relocate temporarily to 
lower elevations.  The USAID Disaster Assistance Response 
Team (DART) has received reports, however, of people moving 
not just from the mountains to camps at lower elevations, 
but also from the camps back up to the mountains.  Movement 
varies by district, as well as by location within the 
district.  This population movement is likely the result of 
a number of factors, including the need to find food and 
shelter during the winter months, Government of Pakistan 
(GOP) payments for earthquake-related losses, seasonal 
migration patterns, and the lack of basic services in some 
tent camps.  Agencies providing humanitarian aid must 
structure their programs to take into account population 
movement.  As additional information regarding population 
movements becomes available, the USAID/DART will adjust 
funding as necessary.  End summary. 
 
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Background 
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2. With the onset of winter, some Pakistanis living at 
higher elevations are beginning to relocate temporarily to 
lower elevations.  The percentage of the population that 
relocates for the winter varies throughout the country.  The 
October 8 earthquake has disrupted typical movement patterns 
this year. 
 
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Movements of People within Pakistan 
----------------------------------- 
 
3. The USAID/DART has received reports of people moving not 
just from the mountains to the camps but also from camps at 
lower elevations back up to the mountains.  Movement varies 
by district and location within the district.  On November 
13, a representative of USAID/Pakistan reported that in 
Mansehra, approximately 90 percent of people from the 
northern Kaghan Valley intended to leave the valley within 
the week.  However, this pattern is a part of an annual 
migration pattern, as the winters at elevations in the 
northern Kaghan Valley are harsh.  Approximately 30 percent 
of people who live in the southern and central Kaghan Valley 
have already left their homes.  In some parts of Mansehra, 
up to half of the people who left in the aftermath of the 
earthquake have returned to their homes, and as of November 
13, people living in this area continue to return.  In the 
Kala Dhaka Tribal Area, however, less than 5 percent of the 
population has left their homes as people in this area are 
essentially self-sufficient and typically do not leave home. 
 
4. A representative of USAID/Pakistan reported that in 
Batagram tehsil, approximately 10 percent of people living 
in isolated areas have left for other locations.  Most of 
these people have joined family members elsewhere in 
Pakistan, and people who have not left have expressed an 
intention to remain. 
 
5. In Allai tehsil, approximately 10 percent of the 
population has left for other locations, with most going to 
Mehra Tent Camp.  A USAID/Pakistan representative reported 
that as temperatures drop, more people will continue to 
leave their homes, although it is unlikely that 50 percent 
of the population in this area will leave, as the GOP 
military predicts. 
 
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Reasons for Population Movements 
-------------------------------- 
 
6. Recent population movement in Pakistan is likely the 
result of a number of factors, although the most basic 
reason is to find shelter and food.  In addition, some 
individuals or families are likely moving in order to claim 
GOP payments for earthquake-related loss.  Further, seasonal 
migration is a traditional coping mechanism of many who live 
at higher altitudes.  The USAID/DART has also observed that 
in some areas of Pakistan, people living in tent camps have 
returned to the site of their former homes. 
 
7. GOP Payments for Earthquake-Related Loss: One of the 
factors affecting Pakistanis' movements is the GOP's 
commitment to disburse funds to those affected by the 
earthquake.  On November 11, President Musharraf announced 
that the GOP would immediately disburse 100,000 Pakistani 
Rupees (PKR), which is approximately USD 1,666, to the next 
of kin of those who died in the earthquake, PKR 50,000 (USD 
833) to people injured in the earthquake, and PKR 25,000 
(USD 416) to those whose houses were damaged or destroyed. 
According to a USAID/Pakistan representative in Mansehra, 
reports from the field suggest that the GOP's progress with 
the monetary distributions is mixed. 
 
8. A USAID/Pakistan representative reported that in 
earthquake-affected areas, district governments have 
received funds to make payments for deaths of family 
members.  District governments are organizing payment 
disbursal.  Each district government appears to be 
disbursing funds differently.  Among districts, the progress 
at which disbursal is proceeding varies. 
 
9. As of November 14, Pakistani citizens who lost property 
in the earthquake had not received compensation. 
Compensation for the loss of loved ones, however, was being 
paid in Abbottabad, Mansehra, Batagram, and Shangla. 
District officials who spoke with USAID claimed that 
payments will continue until the available GOP funds run out 
or all victims are compensated. 
 
10. While some people can claim payments in camps, others 
are required to return to their villages to collect their 
compensation.  In Mansehra and Abbottabad, affected people 
can file a claim in any union council in the district. 
Before payment is made, the claim is verified against the 
record in the union council where the death occurred.  In 
Batagram, people filing a claim must do so in the union 
council where the death occurred.  Officials from Batagram 
district have stated that they have no way of cross-checking 
records from offices elsewhere in the district.  Payment is 
particularly complicated for those who have moved from 
Battgram's Allai Tehsil to Mehra Camp, which is located in 
the neighboring Shangla district.  Shangla claims that it 
will make immediate payments based on a death certificate 
issued within the district boundaries that identifies 
earthquake as the cause of death. 
 
11. Seasonal Migration: The USAID/DART has received numerous 
reports that people in certain areas of Pakistan, especially 
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), have two and sometimes three 
homes at varying altitudes.  This allows them to move to 
lower altitudes as temperatures drop.  The USAID/DART is 
unable to ascertain the extent to which current movement is 
part Pakistanis' annual migration patterns. 
 
12. Lack of Basic Services in Tent Camps: The USAID/DART has 
received reports of individuals in tent camps returning to 
their home sites, even though the homes were damaged or 
destroyed.  At this time, the USAID/DART cannot definitively 
ascertain the reason for people's departure from camps to 
their home sites; however, the USAID/DART believes that this 
is likely due to lack of water and sanitation, shelter, 
food, or other basic services in certain camps. 
 
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Implications for Relief Efforts 
------------------------------- 
 
13. Because affected populations continue to be mobile more 
than a month after the October 8 earthquake, agencies 
providing humanitarian aid must structure programs to take 
into account this population movement.  The USAID/DART, GOP, 
and relief organizations are structuring relief efforts 
around a two-pronged strategy.  The USAID/DART, GOP and 
relief organizations are simultaneously delivering relief 
commodities to hard-to-reach areas in order to promote 
shelter in place.  At the same time, those providing 
humanitarian aid are also attempting to provide basic 
services to tent camps to encourage people in need of 
shelter to relocate temporarily to camps. 
 
14. Through the use of its Geographic Information Systems 
(GIS) Coordinator from the interagency Humanitarian 
Information Unit of the State Department, the USAID/DART is 
also guiding partners to identify and assist areas of the 
greatest unmet needs.  The Disaster Assistance Center (DAC) 
established by the US military has provided the USAID/DART 
with maps, indicating areas where earthquake destruction, 
lack of road access, and population density intersect, which 
roughly represent areas of greatest unmet needs.  Supported 
by these maps and the GIS coordinator, the USAID/DART is 
strategically programming resources by guiding NGO partners 
to target assistance in the areas identified.  This critical 
collaboration among USG agencies and NGOs will enhance the 
impact and efficiency of USAID/DART program funds. 
 
15. Through funding to its implementing partners, the 
USAID/DART follows this two-pronged strategy, both providing 
basic services to tent camps and delivering relief 
commodities in hard-to-reach areas.  The USAID/DART 
maintains that current programming must focus on supplying 
those who will stay at higher elevations with shelter or 
shelter materials, sufficient to protect them against the 
winter weather.  If many of the affected people do come into 
camps, the USAID/DART will adjust funding and shift program 
focus to camp situations if necessary.  The USAID/DART 
continues to monitor the movement of people within Pakistan. 
As additional information becomes available, the USAID/DART 
will adjust funding accordingly to ensure that assistance 
reaches affected communities. 
 
 
CROCKER