US embassy cable - 05MANILA5482

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 005482 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, PINR, RP 
SUBJECT: GARCI'S RETURN TO THE PHILIPPINES:  WILL IT BRING 
CLOSURE? 
 
REF: A. MANILA 5364 
     B. MANILA 4140 
     C. MANILA 2970 
     D. MANILA 2777 
     E. MANILA 2738 
 
Classified By: A/Political Counselor Paul O'Friel for Reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
 1.  (C) Summary:  Former Commission on Elections (COMELEC) 
Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano's reappearance in the 
Philippines after almost four months overseas has sent 
ripples through political circles and led to speculation and 
rumors about the timing and purpose of his return.  Both the 
pro-Arroyo and Opposition camps are seeking to use 
Garcillano's return and his potential testimony to their own 
advantage, i.e., to refute or confirm the allegations of 
electoral fraud dogging Arroyo.  Barring any explosive new 
revelations from Garcillano, however, the Opposition is 
unlikely to be able to recharge its efforts to impeach 
Arroyo.  Most Filipinos are tired of this year's political 
bickering and want to see politicians focus on domestic 
issues important to their day-to-day lives.  The most likely 
outcome is that Garcillano's testimony will bring closure to 
the controversy, even if Arroyo's image remains irreparably 
tarnished in the public eye.  End Summary. 
 
The Return: Background 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Garcillano's wife Grace and at least three members of 
the House of Representatives confirmed in the media this week 
reports that he had returned to the Philippines, on or around 
November 18.  Garcillano is the election official with whom 
President Arroyo spoke in a taped -- and subsequently leaked 
-- telephone conversation last year, leading to Opposition 
accusations of electoral fraud and calls for her resignation. 
 After the wiretapped recording surfaced in June, Garcillano 
allegedly ignores subpoenas served on him by the House of 
Representatives.  On July 14, Garcillano was reported to be 
in Singapore, and he remained overseas for over four months 
(first in London, and later in a Latin American country, 
according to media reports).  He was cited for contempt of 
Congress and an arrest order was issued on August 3 by five 
House committees jointly investigating the case. 
 
3.  (U) In a brief national address on June 27, President 
Arroyo admitted that it was her voice on a taped conversation 
with an election official -- whom she did not name -- last 
year, but denied any intent to influence the outcome of the 
May 2004 election (ref c). 
 
Reactions: Rumor and Speculation 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Garcillano's return (he is reported to be at his home 
in the northern Mindanao province of Bukidnon) has created a 
stir in political circles in the country and led to a flurry 
of speculation and rumor.  As soon as Garcillano's return to 
the country became known, members of the Opposition asked 
that he be allowed to come forward to testify -- in order to 
prove allegations that the May 2004 presidential election was 
rigged.  Pro-Arroyo politicians, including Senator Miriam 
Defensor-Santiago agree that Garcillano should be given the 
chance to respond publicly to the allegations without fear of 
prosecution. 
 
5.  (SBU) Other Opposition leaders claim that Garcillano is 
back to deliver a Malacanang-scripted exoneration of Arroyo 
and her administration of the accusations of electoral fraud, 
and instead implicate Opposition figures in electoral fraud. 
Leading Opposition figure Senator Panfilo Lacson has said 
that Garcillano would testify to this effect when he makes 
his first public re-appearance, and has called for 
Garcillano's immediate arrest in order to "protect" him from 
pressure from Malacanang.  Lacson has further alleged that 
the House leadership's reorganization two days ago of the 
five committees jointly investigating the "Hello Garci" issue 
(as it is popularly known) is part of this script.  On the 
night of Wednesday, November 23, the five chairmen of these 
committees were replaced by congressmen who are viewed as 
more "friendly" toward President Arroyo.  The timing of this 
move has been construed by some as a reaction to the reported 
imminent reemergence of Garcillano.  Sources close to 
Garcillano say he might make his first public appearance 
early next week. 
 
Administration Shrugs Off the News 
---------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Garcillano's return may reflect Malacanang's 
confidence that the "Hello, Garci" audiotape scandal is 
essentially behind Arroyo now and that his return will put 
the final nail in the coffin of that controversy.  (Note: 
There have been reports that persons connected to the Arroyo 
administration helped Garcillano return to the Philippines. 
The Bureau of Immigration has no record of Garcillano 
reentering the country, and there is speculation that he 
reentered the country by boat from Sabah, Malaysia. End 
Note.)  However, it also offers the Opposition an opportunity 
to reopen the issue, after its impeachment effort was 
decisively quashed in the House of Representatives on 
September 6 (ref b).  The pro-Arroyo camp appears to believe 
otherwise:  President Arroyo is silent on the issue, Press 
Secretary Ignacio Bunye has said that the public is tired of 
 
SIPDIS 
the controversy, and Secretary of Environment and Natural 
Resources (and close presidential advisor) Michael Defensor 
has called it a "dead issue." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) Whatever might emerge from Garcillano's potential 
public testimony, Filipinos in general are tired of the 
political bickering that has been going on since June and 
want to see their politicians focusing on other, more 
practical issues like the economy and unemployment (see ref 
a).  They are hoping that this will put an end to the 
controversy, barring any damning testimony by Garcillano.  If 
the issue is finally laid to rest, it is possible that we 
will see a renewed and clearer focus by Arroyo on domestic 
reform issues, which should allow us to pursue our bilateral 
agenda more effectively. 
Jones