US embassy cable - 05THEHAGUE3164

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 003164 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2015 
TAGS: MARR, PREL, PGOV, PINR, MOPS, AF, NL, EUN 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/ISAF: STAGE III PLANS STILL ALIVE 
 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Chat Blakeman, 
reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Dutch government has not yet made a 
decision on participation in ISAF Stage III in Uruzghan 
province.  Prime Minister Balkenende, Foreign Minister Bot 
and Defense Minister Kamp decided November 23 to postpone a 
decision on Dutch participation until Balkenende returns the 
following week from his trip abroad.  As a result, the Dutch 
government has a brief window over the next few days to work 
with the United States "and others" to try and salvage Dutch 
participation in Stage III.  MOD officials confirm that Stage 
III plans are still alive but contingent on two points: 
continued U.S. presence at firebases in the north and a 
"maneuver force" in Zabol province to the east -- but these 
details are open to negotiation.  According to National 
Security Advisor Rob Swartbol, "to put this behind and just 
walk away is simply not an option".  End summary. 
 
Washington Phone Calls 
---------------------- 
 
2. (C) According to Joop Nijssen (Deputy Director, MFA 
Conflict Prevention Division), the Dutch viewed phone 
conversations between D and FM Bot, and P and Dutch 
Ambassador to the United States Eenenaam on November 22 as 
"positive signals".  Nijssen said the Dutch government took a 
basic message away from the conversations: do not make any 
rash, negative decisions at this time. 
 
Balkenende-Bot-Kamp Meeting 
--------------------------- 
 
3. (C) National Security Advisor Rob Swartbol confirmed 
November 23 that Balkenende, Bot, and Kamp met to discuss 
Stage III plans.  As a result, Swartbol said the three agreed 
to postpone a decision on Dutch participation in Stage III 
until Balkenende returns next week from his trip to Suriname. 
 Swartbol and MFA Deputy Director for Political Affairs Peter 
de Gooijer said this afforded the Dutch government a brief 
window to work the issue over the next few days with the 
United States "and others".  Swartbol noted that "to put this 
behind and just walk away is simply not an option." 
 
MOD Side of the Story 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) DAO contacts at the MOD concurred that the 
Balkenende-Bot-Kamp meeting kept open the possibility of 
Dutch participation in Stage III.  They said that while the 
Dutch military supports deployment, Kamp continues to push 
for two points: a continued U.S. presence at firebases to the 
north of Uruzghan province, and a "maneuver force" in Zabul 
province to the east.  MOD contacts suggested that the 
duration and numbers of this U.S. presence to the north and 
east are negotiable, and added that the Dutch might look to 
eventually deploy their own special forces to the two 
locations in the north while requesting NATO to look at 
finding an ally to take the maneuver force to the east. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
5. (C) The window on Dutch participation in Stage III is 
still open, and PM Balkenende is trying hard to make it 
happen.  The read-out from the Balkenende-Bot-Kamp meeting 
tracks with what MOD Director for General Policy Affairs Lo 
Casteleijn said last week: the Dutch government has realized 
how damaging a pull-out from Stage III would be to Dutch 
political and military prestige.  If the Secretary does call 
Bot on November 25 as planned, it would present an excellent 
opportunity to shore up Bot's confidence.  Bot will also be 
looking for the Secretary to press Afghanistan President 
Karzai to enhance civil administration efforts in Uruzghan. 
 
 
BLAKEMAN