US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2377

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002377 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND DRL/PHD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CEN AND DCHA/DG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, SOCI, PHUM, PREL, KDEM, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN ELECTIONS: THE YOUTH VOTE - GROWING 
NUMBERS BUT UNLIKELY TO SUBTANTIALLY AFFECT THE RESULTS 
 
REF: Tegucigalpa 2346 and previous 
 
1.  Summary: Although the Honduran population consists of a 
disproportionately large number of people under the age of 
25, youth play a minimal role in the November 27 general 
elections.  Since as a group they are the least likely to 
vote, it is doubtful that they will significantly alter the 
course of the elections.  Those that do plan to vote show a 
slight preference for the National Party and are motivated 
largely by the same issues that motivate the country as a 
whole: security, especially gangs, and the economy.  If the 
youth of Honduras were to become unified and vote based on 
similar ideals, they would yield great political power. 
While they may not form a strong political voting block now, 
issues involving children and youth are important issues to 
older voters and are central to the campaigns of both of the 
major candidates.  End Summary. 
 
2.  According to the Honduran National Institute for 
Statistics, roughly 65 percent of the population of Honduras 
is less than 25 years old.  This phenomenon is due in part 
to an exodus to the United States of a large percentage of 
able working age adults (upwards of one million Hondurans 
live in the U.S.).  This generational imbalance has lead to 
a strong focus on the political issues involving youth and a 
focus on protecting the future potential of Hondurans. 
However, despite the older generation's interest in issues 
pertaining to youths, there are varying degrees to which the 
younger generations are involved directly in issues that 
directly affect them. 
 
3.  Some youth view the upcoming election as an historical 
time in which there is potential for a new generation to 
usher in a fresh era of Honduran politics.  The Political 
Section met November 11 with roughly 50 Honduran private 
university students of various academic and political 
backgrounds to discuss issues pertaining to Honduras and 
youth politics.  While this group is not necessarily 
representative of the youth population as a whole, the 
meeting provided an interesting insight into some of the 
general thoughts of this generation. 
 
4.  Many youth believe that this election will prove to be 
an historic day; that this election holds the potential to 
motivate the youth of Honduras to take political action. 
However, the negative campaigns that both major parties used 
have left some younger voters cold.  Others said that they 
felt they could not vote against the party that their family 
supported, and may therefore refrain from voting at all. 
However, the biggest factor in deterring young voters from 
becoming more politically active is the perceived corruption 
within the voting system.  Many are convinced that some sort 
of fraud or deceit will take place during the election. 
Believing that their vote will play little role, many insist 
that voting is a waste of time.  While the political 
involvement of many of the wealthier and more educated youth 
is more likely, it is doubtful that the national turnout of 
young voters will be high. 
 
5.  When the youth do plan to vote, they have a slight 
preference to vote for the National Party over the Liberal 
Party.  Several polls have indicated that young voters favor 
National Party presidential candidate Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, 
while senior voters favor Liberal Party candidate Manuel 
"Mel" Zelaya.  However, the polls do not predict that this 
difference is large enough to create a significant impact in 
the election results.  There seems to be no definitive 
reason why Lobo is more popular among younger voters, other 
than perhaps his strong anti-gang stance. 
 
6.  The general perception among youth is that, like much of 
the country, that if they vote, their vote will be due to 
deep family ties and not personal beliefs.  As with many 
other demographic groups in Honduras, age seems to be a less 
of a predictor than family party affiliation.  Students were 
taken aback in the November 11 meeting when asked what 
issues they took into consideration when voting, with many 
explaining that they did not view youth as a united voting 
block.  Even those who had developed views independent from 
their families reported feeling compelled to vote in 
accordance with their parents' wishes. 
 
7.  Despite limited youth involvement directly in politics, 
issues involving youth are central to all of the parties' 
campaigns.  Each of the presidential candidates, as well as 
several prominent congressional candidates and many mayoral 
candidates, signed the Pact for Childhood, Adolescence, and 
Youth.  This pact made the candidates promise to pursue 
various goals benefiting the youth of Honduras and promising 
that the government will protect children's rights.  While 
many of the articles in the pact require vague promises 
rather than specific actions, the fact that all major 
candidates signed this pact shows the perceived importance 
of youth issues.  Looking at how these issues affect voters, 
many older voters are swayed by issues which affect their 
children, and women, who are registered in significantly 
higher numbers than men, appear especially likely to care 
about the welfare of the children and youth of Honduras. 
 
8.  Comment. Sheer numbers alone suggest that the younger 
generations have the opportunity to engage with the 
political system and truly take control of the government's 
direction.  However, it seems that for now this potential 
will largely remain unrealized and that youth will continue 
to play a minimal role in Honduran national politics.  There 
still exists, however, interest in youth issues and the 
potential for politicians to institute reforms that are 
based around such concerns.  However, events like the 
signing of the Pact for Childhood, Adolescence, and Youth 
seem more likely to be campaign promises than genuine 
commitments to implement policies benefiting youth.  End 
Comment. 
 
Ford