US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS4172

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004172 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, EAID, VE, CO, BL, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: PDAS SHAPIRO FOCUSES ON ANDEAN REGION WITH EU 
 
REF: A. A) USEU TODAY 11/17/05 
     B. B) STATE 207705 
     C. C) BRUSSELS 4149 
     D. D) BRUSSELS 3353 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro's November 15 
discussions with EU officials focused principally on 
Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia.  On Venezuela, the European 
Commission (EC) acknowledged that the EU observation mission 
to the December elections would have to take care not to be 
seen as endorsing the election results.  The EC Venezuela 
deskoff said the mission's purpose is not to validate the 
results, but to scrutinize the entire electoral process; he 
said the EC would officially request U.S. support in ensuring 
the mission's findings are respected by all parties in 
Venezuela.  On Colombia, Shapiro's interlocutors said EC 
assistance could be increased if the Justice and Peace Law 
were implemented effectively.  The EU will not observe the 
December Bolivian elections; the EU Council reported that 
Movement towards Socialism leader Evo Morales, on a recent 
trip to Paris and Madrid, had said he would seek Venezuelan 
help in developing Bolivia's natural gas sector if foreign 
companies did not accept his conditions for their 
involvement.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) On November 15 WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro met with EU 
officials from both the European Commission (EC) and the EU 
Council.  Present at the EC meeting were External Relations 
Deputy DirGen Karel Kovanda, Acting Director for Latin 
American Affairs Victor Andres Maldonado, and Venezuela Desk 
Officer David Bruck.  Shapiro's EU Council interlocutors were 
Director for Transatlantic Relations Jim Cloos and Latin 
America Adviser Nicolas Pascual de la Parte. 
 
(NOTE TO WHA POSTS: The European Commission is the 
"executive" branch of the EU, responsible for acting in the 
interest of the EU as a supranational institution.  On 
foreign policy, the EC's power resides in its control of the 
EU's development assistance funds.  The EC alone is the third 
largest bilateral donor, with the EU as a whole (EC plus EU 
member states) being the largest.  The EU Council, in 
contrast, represents EU member-state governments and their 
sovereign interests as expressed in consensus decisions among 
the 25.  The Council is headed by Javier Solana, who is the 
High Representative for EU Common Foreign and Security 
Policy.  END NOTE.) 
 
--------------------------------- 
VENEZUELA: EU AT A LOSS ON CHAVEZ 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Kovanda said the EU shared U.S. concerns on Venezuela, 
but remarked that there was little anyone could do about it. 
He predicted Chavez forces would win the December legislative 
elections hands down, regardless of the degree to which they 
are free and fair.  He said the EU election observation 
mission was in danger of inadvertently contributing to the 
credibility of the mandate Chavez would receive from the 
electorate.  Kovanda said EU observers would have to be very 
careful not to endorse implicitly Venezuela's electronic 
voting technology -- which he feared the EU would not be able 
to monitor reliably -- nor to be seen as endorsing the 
election results.  Bruck stressed, though, that the 
observation mission would scrutinize the entire electoral 
process.  He predicted the observers would likely criticize 
quite a few aspects of that process, such as the 
unreliability of the voter registry and the politicization of 
the National Electoral Council.  The observation mission 
leader, said Bruck, would be a Portuguese center-right member 
of the European Parliament (and former GOP minister), Jose 
Albino Silva Peneda. 
 
4. (C) In response, Shapiro agreed that election observation 
would be difficult and might play into Chavez's hands.  He 
urged the EU, though, to focus on helping keep as much space 
open as possible in Venezuela for civil society --  NGO's, 
churches, the private sector -- and the exercise of 
democratic freedoms. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
EU TO REQUEST SUPPORT FOR ELECTION MISSION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) Bruck first told Shapiro that European Commissioner 
Ferrero-Waldner would send a letter to Secretary Rice about 
the EU election observation mission.  Later, though, he 
called to correct that, saying the EU had decided instead to 
explain its purposes and goals for the mission, and solicit 
U.S. support, in a demarche to State within the next week. 
Main points in the demarche would be: 
 
--The EU encourages every effort to promote national 
reconciliation and democratic principles, tolerance and 
dialogue in Venezuela; 
 
--EU Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner made clear, when announcing 
to the Venezuelans the decision to send an observer mission, 
that it was the GOV's responsibility to act to inspire 
confidence in Venezuelan civil society in the election 
process; 
 
--The EU hopes the observer mission will send a clear signal 
to the Venezuelan government and civil society of the EU's 
commitment to strengthen genuine democracy in the country; 
 
--The mission's purpose is not to validate the election 
results, but to scrutinize the entire electoral process; 
 
--The EC would appreciate U.S. assistance in ensuring that 
all parties in Venezuela -- government, opposition, and civil 
society -- will respect the mission's findings. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
EU COLOMBIA SUPPORT TO UNFOLD WITH EVENTS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Shapiro described the progress being made in Colombia 
under President Uribe's leadership, and underlined the USG 
decision to commit USD 20.5 million to support demobilization 
of paramilitaries.  He urged the EU also to increase, as much 
as possible, its monetary, in-kind and personnel support for 
the peace process with paramilitary groups (ref B).  Kovanda 
said that the EU was prepared to assist victims of the 
conflict and to support the reintegration of child 
combatants.  Referring to the EU FonMins' October declaration 
on Colombia, Pascual said the EU was willing to work with the 
Justice and Peace Law as the framework, but was observing 
closely the law's implementation before committing to steps 
beyond those mentioned by Kovanda.  He added that it was also 
up to the Colombians to put concrete proposals for assistance 
on the table for EU consideration.  Cloos said prospects for 
future EU support were good; the EU supported Uribe, and 
recognition of Uribe's accomplishments had grown among EU 
officials and citizens. 
 
-------------------------- 
EU SHARES BOLIVIA CONCERNS 
-------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Shapiro recounted all of the problems facing Bolivia, 
stressing that, with its weak institutions, regional and 
ethnic tensions, and Movement Towards Socialism leader Evo 
Morales' revolutionary populism, Bolivia would be very 
difficult to govern after the December 18 elections.  Kovanda 
confirmed the EU was not sending an observer mission to the 
elections, because the Bolivians had not invited the EU far 
enough in advance.  In lieu of the EU, Shapiro urged his 
interlocutors to encourage EU member states to send observers 
to help the small OAS mission.  Bruck reported that the 
European Parliament (EP) was sending a group to observe 
unofficially.  (NOTE: An EP contact later told us the 
decision had not yet been made, but that Spanish Socialist 
Labor MEPs Emilio Menendez del Valle and Luis Yanez-Barnuevo 
would probably be among those who would participate.  END 
NOTE.)  Finally, Pascual reported that Evo Morales, on a 
recent trip to Paris and Madrid, had been at pains to appear 
moderate.  At the same time, he had sent a "two-track" 
message on developing Bolivia's natural gas sector: on the 
one hand he said that, if he became president, he might 
accept international private sector involvement; on the other 
hand, he indicated that he would seek Venezuelan help if the 
private sector did not accept his terms and conditions for 
its involvement. 
 
 
8. (C) CDA COMMENT: Shapiro's visit, together with the recent 
visits of EUR PDAS Kurt Volker (ref D) and Cuba Transition 
Coordinator Caleb McCarry (ref C), has demonstrated our 
desire to intensify engagement with the EU on Latin America 
and the Caribbean.  Keeping the EU apprised of our interests 
in the region -- and doing so beyond the twice-yearly COLAT 
discussions -- helps encourage the EU to be more cooperative 
on contentious issues and on longer-term democracy and 
development goals in the region.  To that end, we would like 
to invite A/S Shannon to Brussels to meet with EU 
counterparts early in the new year.  END CDA COMMENT. 
 
MCKINLEY 
.