US embassy cable - 05ANKARA6930

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, OSCE, EU, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY FACES OBSTACLES ON PATH TO EU MEMBERSHIP 
 
REF: ANKARA 6763 
 
Classified by Acting DCM James Moore; reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
1. (C) Summary: Now that Turkey has begun EU accession talks, 
it faces the difficult prospect of meeting EU requirements 
regarding Cyprus, minority rights, religious freedom, 
civil-military relations, and freedom of expression.  This 
will require Turkey to open debate on sensitive topics and 
change longstanding state policy and ideology, while at the 
same time implementing difficult, EU-driven economic reforms. 
 The challenge may be further complicated by the strength of 
Turkish nationalism.  The GOT will also have to alter its 
practice of delaying reform until shortly before a looming 
deadline.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) The GOT over the past four years has adopted a vast 
array of legislative reforms in pursuit of Turkey's EU 
candidacy.  While the reforms are impressive on paper, the EU 
and other observers have often noted that implementation of 
the changes has lagged.  Nevertheless, the EU in December 
2004 determined that Turkey "sufficiently fulfills" the 
Copenhagen political criteria in order to begin accession 
talks, which started in October. 
 
3. (C) Now that the accession process has begun, the GOT will 
need to enact far more profound changes to advance toward 
membership.  Turkey will have to open debate on a long list 
of taboos -- on issues such as minority rights, religious 
pluralism, and civil-military relations -- and change some of 
the fundamental concepts dating to the founding of the 
Republic of Turkey in 1923.  "Changing laws is not enough," 
said Sema Kilicer, political officer at the European 
Commission Representation to Turkey.  "Unless Turkey can 
re-define citizens' rights in a more liberal way, it will not 
make it.  Now things are going to start getting tough." 
 
--------------------------------- 
Turkey Faces Obstacles on EU Path 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Turkey will be able to set its own pace -- the 
accession process will take 10 years at a minimum.  But the 
GOT will have to make sustained, steady progress to overcome 
a unique set of obstacles.  Consistent EU pressure brought 
Turkey to the start of accession talks -- just as IMF 
pressure has led GOT economic reforms -- but Turkey will have 
to create its own momentum to complete the process of fully 
complying with the political criteria and adopting the 
80,000-page EU acquis.  As it does so, the following factors 
are likely to prove particularly troublesome: 
 
-- Cyprus:  The unanimous approval of the EU Council will be 
required to open and close each of the 33 acquis chapters. 
This will effectively give Cyprus 66 opportunities to freeze 
the process.  The EU in 2006 will review Turkey's compliance 
with the Customs Union.  EU officials have made clear to the 
Turks that full compliance requires allowing Greek Cypriot 
vessels access to Turkish ports, something GOT contacts say 
is out of the question unless the EU moves first to alleviate 
the isolation of the "TRNC."  Ultimately, the EU will not 
allow Turkey to accede until it recognizes Cyprus, and the 
GOT will not grant recognition until there is a full Cyprus 
resolution. 
 
-- Minority Rights: Despite the reforms, the GOT continues to 
cling to a restrictive, anachronistic concept of 
"minorities."  At the founding of the Republic, Ataturk 
established a unitary "Turkish" identity.  Based on its 
interpretation of the 1923 Lausanne Treaty, the state 
recognizes the existence of only three minorities -- Greek 
Orthodox Christians, Armenian Orthodox Christians, and Jews. 
The open expression of any other identity outside the 
mainstream is considered a threat to national unity.  As an 
example, shortly before the EU released its Progress Report 
November 9, Justice Minister Cicek warned that the GOT would 
issue a protest if the report referred to Alevis as a 
minority (it did not).  As long as Turkey maintains a 
definition of minority completely at odds with the Western 
concept, it will not be able to meet EU requirements on 
 
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minority rights.  GOT officials sometimes argue that the 
Turkish concept of minority rights is consistent with that of 
France; EU contacts say there is some truth to that, but note 
that France was an EU member long before the Copenhagen 
Criteria were established in 1993. 
 
-- Religious Freedom: For the same reasons, the state also 
considers religious pluralism a threat to national unity. 
The EU is pressing Turkey to expand freedoms for religious 
minorities, while avoiding the issue of Turkish state control 
over Islam.  Many pious Turkish Muslims resent official 
restrictions on Islam, such as the ban on Islamic headscarves 
in universities.  The Islam-oriented ruling AK Party has made 
little headway in addressing these issues, and is loath to 
expand freedoms for religious minorities without delivering 
on issues important to its Islamic political base.  The 
recent decision by the European Court of Human Rights 
upholding the headscarf ban underscored this dilemma. 
 
-- Civil-Military Relations: The EU is calling for the 
Turkish military to withdraw from the political sphere; the 
November Progress Report calls attention to recent speeches 
by leaders of the armed forces on political matters.  As 
noted reftel, no elected Turkish government can force 
military leaders to cease the practice of commenting on 
political matters.  The political role of the armed forces is 
a firm tradition in Turkey, supported by the vast majority of 
Turks.  Military leaders will have to be persuaded to phase 
out their political influence.  "This one will take time," 
said Koksal Toptan, AK MP and chairman of the parliamentary 
Justice Committee.  "There are some things we cannot  change 
as quickly as they can write in Brussels." 
 
-- Nationalism: Turkish nationalism runs deep and wide.  It 
has blended with every other ideology in Turkey -- socialism, 
Islamism, etc.  It is well represented in every significant 
political party.  At some level, all Turks are nationalists. 
Hardcore nationalists are already opposed to EU membership, 
which they see as a ploy by Western powers intent on 
weakening and dividing Turkey.  The accession process, which 
a Polish official reportedly described as "humiliating," will 
provide numerous opportunities for nationalists to win people 
over to their cause.  When the EU insists on further reform 
in sensitive areas such as minority rights and religious 
freedom, nationalists will cite this as evidence of a plot to 
create divisions in Turkish society.  EU economic 
requirements will force dramatic changes, such as a major 
reduction in the number of agricultural workers, who 
currently constitute a third of the workforce.  These 
changes, painful in the short term, will create a pool of 
disaffected workers vulnerable to an anti-EU message.  Of 
course, this challenge is not unique to Turkey.  Nationalism 
is also strong in many of the 10 states that joined the EU in 
2004.  But those countries had recently emerged from behind 
the Iron Curtain and were eager to re-join Europe.  They 
could blame communism, which was forced on them, for their 
deficiencies, and thereby save face.  Turkey's history is 
different, and Turkish nationalism may therefore prove to be 
a greater handicap. 
 
-- Freedom of Expression: Free speech is the fundamental tie 
that binds all other human rights problems in Turkey.  Anyone 
making controversial statements on the issues listed above 
risks prosecution.  EU-related reforms have done little to 
expand freedom of expression.  It remains illegal to "insult" 
the Government, the state or its institutions, Ataturk, or 
"Turkish identity."  The GOT has amended the law so that 
speech intended to "criticize" but not "insult" is no longer 
prohibited.  However, the law does not define the concept of 
"insult," so prosecutors continue to open cases against those 
who contradict the official view on sensitive topics, as 
demonstrated by the case against Orhan Pamuk.  Moreover, 
defamation laws provide greater protection to public 
officials than to ordinary citizens, a fact that PM Erdogan 
has exploited by repeatedly suing political cartoonists whose 
work he found offensive.  GOT officials claim to support 
freedom of expression in principle, but are very rarely 
prepared to defend the right of citizens to speak out on 
sensitive topics. 
 
 
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-- Negotiating Tactics: The Turks have a tendency to 
negotiate by inflexibly maintaining their position, 
compromising only at the last moment.  This has been Turkey's 
approach to the EU process to date; the GOT has often given 
in to EU pressure and enacted reforms shortly before an EU 
Summit or Progress Report.  "That's the way we work," laughed 
Kaya Turkmen, MFA DDG for EU Affairs.  Turkmen told us he has 
warned colleagues that this approach will no longer serve 
Turkey now that accession talks have begun.  The European 
Commission, he said, will set benchmarks on a wide range of 
acquis requirements and task the GOT with developing a valid 
plan for compliance.  There will be no deadlines to force 
action.  The GOT will have to make gradual, steady progress 
without outside political pressure.  The Commission will set 
requirements, and will generally not engage in the kind of 
political haggling the GOT is accustomed to.  "We shouldn't 
call it a negotiation really," said Kilicer.  "We should call 
it 'cut, copy, and paste.'" 
 
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Comment: Political Pressure to Continue 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) In a perfect world, Turkey's EU candidacy would now 
drop below the radar screen, allowing the European Commission 
and the Turkish bureaucracy to work through these issues 
without political pressure.  But that is highly unlikely. 
The accession process will force Turks to confront all of the 
sensitive subjects they prefer to avoid.  This will 
inevitably cause public controversy, and when it does, those 
opposed to Turkey's EU candidacy -- both in Turkey and Europe 
-- will turn up the heat. 
 
 
MCELDOWNEY