US embassy cable - 05HARARE1603

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001603 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ZI, ZANU-PF, MDC 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE,S NOVEMBER 26 SENATE ELECTIONS: 
PSEUDO-RACE ECLIPSED BY MDC DIVIDE 
 
REF: A. REF A: HARARE 001578 
     B. REF B: HARARE 001467 
     C. REF C: HARARE 001238 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz under Section 1 
.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) November 26 marks election day for the 
newly-recreated Senate.  Few observers expect the institution 
to produce much beyond 66 new offices to be handed out by the 
government as patronage.  Given voter apathy, the calls for a 
boycott from MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai, and lackluster 
ZANU-PF campaigning, we expect that few Zimbabweans will 
bother to turn out on Saturday, likely resulting in a hollow 
victory for ZANU-PF.  The Senate elections have, however, 
exposed festering leadership divisions within the MDC 
(reftels) that will not go away after November 26.  The 
Embassy intends to mount a small-scale monitoring effort, 
focused on Harare and Bulawayo, in conjunction with several 
other western Embassies and we recommend that the Department 
issue a press statement criticizing the elections as well as 
the creation of the Senate.  End Summary. 
 
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A Powerless Institution 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) ZANU-PF in August used its parliamentary majority to 
pass the Constitution of Zimbabwe Amendment (17) Bill, which 
among other measures reintroduced a 66-member Senate (ref C). 
 MDC head Tsvangirai, backed by most of his party and 
virtually all of Zimbabwe,s civil society, roundly 
criticized the Senate as powerless but expensive institution 
that was created solely to enlarge GOZ,s opportunities for 
patronage.  The Senate has no power of veto and can only 
delay for a few months the passage of legislation approved by 
the lower house.  Further reflecting this body,s 
insignificance, the Senate will be done away with after five 
years. 
 
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A Sham Election 
--------------- 
 
3.  (C) Confirming its intention to use the Senate as a 
patronage tool, the ruling party put forward a list political 
pensioners, many of whom are members of the old guard who 
lost in past elections, to contest the 50 elected seats (ref 
B).  (N.B. ZANU-PF was the only party to nominate candidates 
in 19 seats, winning those slots unopposed; 16 additional 
seats are appointed by the President.)  The GOZ appears also 
to have gerrymandered several Senatorial districts in order 
to make inroads into MDC strongholds.  An electoral analysis 
(e-mailed to AF/S) by the nonpartisan Zimbabwe Election 
Support Network (ZESN) found evidence of this in most 
provinces. 
 
4.  (C) MDC President Tsvangirai called for a boycott of the 
election but was opposed by a group of largely Ndebele party 
leaders led by party Vice President Gibson Sibanda and 
Secretary General Welshman Ncube (reftels).  26 MDC 
 
SIPDIS 
&candidates8 filed to compete in the elections.  Over the 
past month, even as Tsvangirai,s boycott campaign emerged 
victorious among the party,s rank and file members, the 
intra-party dispute heated up.  As popular support for 
participation eroded even in Matabeleland, the 
pro-participation camp shifted its message to one against 
Tsvangirai,s supposed transgressions of the party 
 
SIPDIS 
constitution and anti-democratic tendencies. 
 
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Electorate Tuning Out 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The usual fanfare that has proceeded past elections 
in Zimbabwe is conspicuously absent.  The cities are largely 
devoid of posters and the state media has reported only a 
handful of rallies by ZANU-PF candidates.  The majority of 
voters seem apathetic about these elections and therefore all 
the more likely to heed Tsvangirai,s call for a boycott. 
The result is therefore likely to be a sweeping, but hollow, 
ZANU-PF victory.  That said, and despite the low turnout, it 
is possible that some of the &MDC8 candidates could win, 
especially in opposition strongholds of Matabeleland South 
and North, where, as one participation-minded MDC MP told 
poloff, the electorate instinctively votes against the 
government come election time.  It is also possible that 
ZANU-PF, sensing an opportunity to further divide the 
opposition, may allow some of them to win seats. 
 
---------------------- 
Next Steps for the MDC 
---------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The intra-MDC debate over participation in the Senate 
election has highlighted long-standing divisions within the 
MDC leadership and has threatened to split the main 
opposition party.  The fates of the 26 candidates come ballot 
day, however, are likely only to move the opposition into a 
new phase of intra-party competition, not to conclude it. 
Reflecting conventional wisdom here, former MDC mediator 
Brian Raftopolous told the Charge on November 23 that 
"divorce" seemed likely, but Ncube's faction might survive 
initially as a regional MDC rump that would be able to 
reassess its options ) including reconciliation -- in the 
run-up to and in the wake of next year's Party Congress. 
That said, the challenge for Tsvangirai and the wider 
opposition remains to prove their continued relevance to a 
population that has been shell-shocked by economic decline 
and government repression. 
 
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Observation Efforts 
------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The Charge has been meeting regularly with other 
like-minded Chiefs of Mission to discuss election coverage. 
Commensurate with the election's relative insignificance, the 
international community is mounting only a limited 
observation campaign.  Post will send one accredited officer 
and staff to observe the Gutu North parliamentary by-election 
) a seat that ZANU-PF is likely to retain because of a weak 
MDC candidate and the rural area,s traditional allegiance to 
the ruling party.  Two unaccredited officers, accompanied by 
an Australian diplomat and staff will be surveying Bulawayo, 
where there is the most potential for election day violence. 
Two unaccredited officers and staff will monitor events in 
Harare.  The Japanese mission indicated it might also have 
one officer join us in observing Harare.  The British mission 
will be mounting an observation effort similar to ours. 
 
8.  (C) According to SADC member diplomats here, SADC organs 
are sitting this election out and the issue of SADC electoral 
guidelines, a prominent feature of the March parliamentary 
elections have been notable for their absence this time 
around.  Counterparts at the South African and Namibian 
Embassies told us November 21 that some of their Harare-based 
diplomats would observe.  According to a contact at the 
Japanese Embassy, the Chinese Ambassador to Harare reported 
that Beijing requested that the GOZ not invite China to 
observe.  For its part, the domestic monitoring organization 
ZESN has denounced the elections as a fraud and will field 
only ten observer teams, canvassing Gutu North, Harare, and 
eight races in Matabeleland. 
 
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Statements 
---------- 
 
9.  (C) At the last meeting of like-minded Chiefs of Mission, 
the Australian and British Ambassadors indicated that their 
governments were likely to issue statements condemning the 
elections.  The EU representatives were split.  Post 
recommends that Washington also issue a statement along the 
following lines: 
 
-- Zimbabwe's Senate elections did not advance the cause of 
democracy in Zimbabwe. 
 
-- The electoral climate in Zimbabwe is still dramatically 
tilted in favor of the ruling ZANU-PF party.  There have been 
no reforms made since the fraudulent March parliamentary 
elections. 
 
-- Many of the seats were uncontested and President Mugabe 
appointed still others.  As a result, ZANU-PF had won a 
majority in the Senate before the election was ever held. 
 
-- The political opposition opposed the creation of the 
Senate as an exercise in government patronage rather than an 
exercise of the popular will. 
 
-- The (expected/apparent) low turn-out further undermines 
the legitimacy of the Senate. 
 
-- Zimbabwe's multi-faceted crises demand not an expensive 
new political institution but restored rule of law, 
responsible economic policies, and genuine political dialogue 
between the major parties and civil society. 
 
-- We urge the Government of Zimbabwe once again to establish 
a political and economic framework that can restore the 
country's prosperity and hope. 
SCHULTZ