US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN2061

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL, EUR/ACE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: RALLIES AND RHETORIC AS ARMENIA RAMPS-UP FOR THE 
REFERENDUM 
 
REF: YEREVAN 1692 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) The November 27 referendum on proposed constitutional 
amendments continues to dominate local news  as political 
forces make their last-ditch efforts to garner popular 
support.  Opposition leaders have announced a series of 
rallies on November 24-27 to protest what they are already 
calling a rigged election and encourage their followers to 
boycott.  For their part, pro-government forces have 
announced rallies (one of which coincides with a major 
opposition rally) aimed at getting out the "yes" vote on 
November 27.  A large percentage of opposition parties 
announced November 23 that they would pull their 
representatives from Local Election Commission duties in 
individual polling places to comply with their "total 
boycott" of the elections.  A long list of local NGOs is 
preparing for election observation on November 27 but 
international observers will still be limited to a handful of 
Council of Europe Parliamentarians scheduled to arrive in 
Yerevan on November 25.  The GOAM's decision not to invite a 
full team of international observers will limit our ability 
to comment on the fairness of the referendum.  Beyond 
possible irregularities, the biggest obstacles to the 
constitutional amendments may be the GOAM's uncertain ability 
to attract more than 755,000 voters to the polls on November 
27.  End Summary. 
 
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RALLIES GALORE -- BUT HOW BIG? 
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2. (C) The November 27 referendum on proposed constitutional 
amendments continues to dominate political news and 
discussion in Armenia.  Political forces on both sides are 
making their last-ditch efforts to garner popular support 
through media campaigns and public meetings.  Opposition 
leaders have completed their automobile caravan tour of 
Armenia's regions and have announced a series of rallies on 
November 24-27.  The vast majority of the major opposition 
parties are still calling for supporters nationwide to 
boycott the elections on November 27 and instead join in 
Yerevan to protest what they are already calling a rigged 
election.  Former Armenian FM, potential presidential 
contender and Heritage Party leader (former Amcit) Raffi 
Hovannissian will host a rally on November 25 together with 
Republic Party Aram Sargsyan.  Pro-government "Yes" rallies 
will take place on November 24 and 25 around Yerevan and will 
include a line-up of well-known singers and entertainers. 
Not surprisingly, the Yerevan mayor's office has approved all 
of these rallies including one which conflicts with the 
Heritage Party rally.  Comment:  The rallies will be a useful 
indicator of how many people are willing to take to the 
streets in advance of the referendum since there has not been 
a large multi-party opposition rally in Yerevan for more than 
a year.  Overtly pro-government rallies are a rarity in 
Armenia; we will be watching the "Yes" concert/rallies with 
interest.  End comment. 
 
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BOYCOTTING THE VOTE AND ELECTORAL COMMISSIONS 
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3. (SBU) The opposition Justice Bloc and National Unity 
Faction (who together control the majority of opposition 
forces in Armenia) announced November 22 that they would pull 
their representatives from electoral commissions at the 
local, regional and national level.  Opposition leaders said 
the move was a way to comply with their "total" boycott of 
the referendum.  When asked to justify this decision, 
opposition leader Stepan Demirchian said the opposition was 
"outnumbered anyway" and refused to "validate another 
falsified election."  Other opposition parties that have 
taken a different approach, however, to the referendum.  The 
National Democratic Alliance (a small party led by Arshak 
Sadoyan) has not recalled its representatives from electoral 
commissions and is giving its supporters a choice on how they 
will vote against the referendum.  Prominent opposition 
figure Shavarsh Kocharyan has also steered clear of the call 
to boycott the referendum and his party is keeping a low 
profile in advance of the November 27 vote. 
 
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LOCAL OBSERVERS GOING IT (ALMOST) ALONE 
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4. (C) A long list of local NGOs is preparing to observe 
voting on November 27; their members will serve as the only 
nationwide monitors for the referendum.  The Central Election 
Commission (CEC) earlier this week approved 24 NGOs as 
election observers.  Ten political parties will be observing 
the balloting, including seven opposition parties.  The local 
director of the USAID-funded "It's Your Choice" NGO told us 
that his organization was dispatching 3,000 observers to 
1,300 polling places nationwide.  During a luncheon hosted by 
the DCM to discuss the referendum, the newly arrived Chief of 
Party of the International Federation for Electoral Systems 
Chedomir Flego mentioned that he would be observing the 
balloting together with an un-affiliated NGO for voters with 
disabilities as well as a CEC escort. 
 
5. (C) International election observers will be limited to a 
group of 14 Council of Europe parliamentarians who will 
arrive in Yerevan on November 24.  Special Representative of 
the Secretary General of the Council of Europe Bojana Urumova 
told us November 23 that the group will visit a limited 
number of polling places on election day in and around 
Yerevan and would hold a press conference to announce its 
findings on November 28.  Post has offered its assistance in 
briefing the delegation and helping its members prepare for 
their observation duties. 
 
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COMMENT:  STILL A QUESTION OF NUMBERS 
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6. (C) Beyond concerns about possible voter irregularities, 
government pressure, opposition posturing and polling 
procedures, the big question in the run-up to this weekend's 
election is whether or not enough Armenians will go to the 
polls on November 27.  According to preliminary data from the 
CEC, 755,468 "yes" votes are needed to overcome the threshold 
for passage of the referendum (Armenia's constitution 
stipulates that a referendum will pass if it receives more 
than fifty percent of the votes, which must not be less than 
one third of the 2,266,404 registered voters).  This is a 
tall order, even if unconfirmed rumors about quotas and 
considerable GOAM pressure on local leaders are true.  The 
GOAM's decision not to invite a full team of international 
observers will limit our ability to make conclusions about 
the fairness of the referendum.  We expect local NGO 
monitoring groups will serve as our best source for 
first-hand information on the November 27 referendum. 
EVANS