US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1855

UNCLAS  DUSHANBE 001855 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, SA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, KDEM, TI 
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: NEW ECON REFORM PARTY CHAIRMAN SAYS TAJIKISTAN 
NEEDS SLOW ECONOMIC REFORM 
 
 
1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
Not for public Internet. 
 
2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Tajikistan's new Party of Economic Reform 
(PER) calls for gradual economic changes beginning with 
agriculture reform, developing industry around farm products, 
and creating a financial sector for agro-investment.  The party 
favors a strong government hand in initiating the reform 
process, and criticizes the government for not moving forward 
with proposed reforms.  PER accuses other parties of being too 
economically liberal, but is sympathetic to the ruling People's 
Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT).  PER Chairman Olimzhon 
Boboyev praised an "Eastern model" of government and ideally 
wished Tajikistan had a monarchy with Rahmonov as the figurehead 
king and an elected President and Prime Minister.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PER's PLATFORM: TAJIKISTAN NEEDS SLOW BUT REAL ECONOMIC REFORM 
 
3.  (U) In the local press, PER Chairman Boboyev stated the 
party's goals: to reduce poverty, conduct proper privatization, 
and attract foreign investments.  In a meeting with PolOff on 
November 18, he proposed Tajikistan needs slow and gradual 
economic reform, but is not yet ready for a free-market economy. 
 
 
4.  (U) PER's platform is based on a three-step gradual 
transition to a market economy.  The first step is agrarian 
reform.  Boboyev argued the party does not favor privatizing 
land ownership because privatization could lead to a feudal 
system with a few elite able to afford land controlling peasants 
who must work the land.  He called on private- and state-owned 
joint ventures to organize small farm cooperatives to create a 
market for the exchange of land use. 
 
5.  (U) The second step, directly related to the development of 
the agriculture sector, is industrial reform.  New industries 
would use Tajikistan's agricultural output.  Boboyev identified 
the need to fund small enterprises to process raw materials such 
as cotton into yarn and then, over time, a textiles industry 
could develop. 
 
6.  (U) The third step would be to create a financial sector 
revolving around agro-investment.  In Bobyev's opinion, with 
industrial support, Tajikistan could build large plants to be 
competitive with foreign enterprises, although Tajikistan still 
lacks reliable electrical power.  Boboyev touted the need for 
foreign investment and said Tajikistan can receive large amounts 
of aid from the West, but it will not help; Tajikistan needs 
investment to develop its economy. 
 
7.  (U) The government should prepare each sector for 
liberalization.  When the government deems a sector is finally 
ready for liberalization, it should privatize.  The market will 
then guide that sector and government influence would naturally 
decrease. 
 
8.  (U) Unlike leaders of other political parties, Boboyev has a 
close working relationship with Parliamentarians and other 
government ministries.  The Minister of Transport appointed him 
head of the Transport Institute in 2003, and he often advises 
Parliament on transport legislation.  Thus far, he has received 
free access to and coverage by both independent and state media. 
 
 
9.  (U) Boboyev has been publicly critical of the government 
only in the realm of economic reform.  Politically, he agreed 
with the current policies and specifically pointed out that 
Rahmonov has chosen the best political approach towards 
stability and built a positive image of the country.  However, 
 
 
he criticized the government for being ineffective, the 
bureaucracy too large, and the ministries not independent, but 
rather extensions of the President. 
 
FORMING A NEW POLITICAL PARTY:  A 12-MONTH PROCESS 
 
10.  (U) The Ministry of Justice officially registered PER on 
October 28.  Boboyev claimed the Party initiated the 
registration process one year ago.  It currently has 1,112 
members total, from every district, including Gorno Badakhshan. 
Ninety percent of their members have advanced degrees and are 
considered members of the intelligentsia, being economists, 
lawyers, journalists, writers, and other educated professionals. 
 
 
11.  (U) PER's Congress convened representatives from all 
districts September 19.  According to Tajik law, the Congress 
established the party's charter and elected staff members.  The 
next Congress will meet in three months.  Boboyev hoped to have 
a PER representative in every village.  The party's membership 
fees are modest and not enough to meet the party's financial 
needs, but PER intends to raise funds by creating local 
enterprises.  Thus far, none have been established, but will be 
set-up during the next few Congresses.  Boboyev dodged PolOff's 
questions about how the party was initially funded. 
 
12.  (SBU) COMMENT:  It is difficult to register any kind of 
organization in Tajikistan, especially political parties - 
unless the powers-that-be want them registered.  PER's 
registration on its first try suggests the party is 100 percent 
government approved, and likely government created.  END COMMENT. 
 
13.  (U) PER shares few common principles with the seven other 
registered political parties.  Primarily, Boboyev believes other 
parties are economically too liberal in calling for less 
government interference in the economy.  The party insists 
Tajikistan needs the government to stabilize and stimulate the 
economy.  He accused other parties of abandoning Tajikistan's 
Eastern values and being too pro-Western.  The one exception, 
noted Boboyev, was the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan, 
which shared a similar platform with PER. 
 
14.  (U) As next year's presidential election draws closer, PER 
will announce its own presidential candidate.  Boboyev did not 
rule out supporting another party's candidate, because, he 
acknowledged, PER is a young party and could not win in the next 
presidential election.  He hoped to establish a solid base for 
the future, and believes the population will respect the party 
because of its intelligentsia membership. 
 
KING RAHMONOV 
 
15.  (SBU) Boboyev ideally would like Tajikistan's government to 
mirror Japan's.  He favored a monarchy for Tajikistan with 
Rahmonov as king.  (COMMENT:  No, we are not making this up. 
END COMMENT.)  Boboyev explained Rahmonov is concerned about his 
own financial and political security and has infused his close 
government circle with family members and people from the Kulyab 
region.  If Rahmonov were king, he and his family would be 
financed under the government's budget, meaning a smaller group 
of people would be living off state money instead of the current 
hundreds benefiting from Rahmonov's position.  As king, Rahmonov 
would still exert influence, but it would not be as overreaching 
because there would be an elected President or Prime Minister. 
Over time, the monarch would become a figurehead. 
 
16.  (SBU) COMMENT:  It is likely that PER was formed as a 
"pocket party" to give the illusion of "democratic opposition" 
as the government cracks down on the parties it does not like. 
 
 
Boboyev's emphasis on the need for economic development and 
reform rather than relying on Western aid is a Rahmonov talking 
point.  As head of the Transport Institute, Boboyev is a 
government-appointed bureaucrat, leaving little question about 
the "independence" of his party.  His desire for a monarchy with 
"King Rahmonov" is something we cannot fathom except to suggest 
it may be an atavistic memory about Central Asia's medieval 
khans.  However, the trend for the last several centuries has 
been in the opposite direction -- toward democracy.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
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