US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6619

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006619 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KWBG, TS, IS, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: SENATOR LIEBERMAN'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER 
SHALOM 
 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b 
, d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told Codel 
Lieberman November 22 that he is disappointed that Prime 
Minister Sharon has left the Likud, and that it is hard to 
say what will happen in the general elections four months 
from now.  Shalom predicted that he and former Prime Minister 
Benyamin Netanyahu will win the most votes among the six 
candidates competing in the December 19 first round of the 
Likud leadership elections, and that the two will face each 
other in a decisive second round December 22.  He reiterated 
prior statements that Palestinian Authority President Abbas 
must do more to fight terrorism, and lamented the U.S. 
decision to not oppose the electoral participation of Hamas. 
Shalom argued for harsh measures against Iran and listed a 
number of positive results that he believes have resulted 
from American action in Iraq.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------ 
SHARON,S EXIT FROM LIKUD 
------------------------ 
 
2. (C) Foreign Minister Shalom expressed his disappointment 
that Prime Minister Sharon has left the Likud and taken 14 
Likud MKs with him, and said that he fears that more Likud 
MKs may follow.  He added, though, that those who have left 
the Likud might have sensed that they held weak positions 
within the party and might not have won electable positions 
on the party's Knesset list.  Shalom said that it is hard to 
say what will happen in the elections four months from now, 
but that he is confident that Sharon,s new party will be a 
"one-man show," and not be a long-term force. 
 
3. (C) Shalom predicted that he and former Prime Minister 
Benyamin Netanyahu will win the most votes of the six 
candidates in the December 19 first round of the upcoming 
Likud leadership elections, and that the two will face each 
other in a decisive second round December 22.  (Note: The 
party's full 150,000-plus members vote in the leadership 
races.  The 3,000-member Central Committee chooses the 
party's Knesset list. End Note)  In response to a question 
from Senator Lieberman about whether moderate Likud voters 
will participate in the primary election, Shalom said that 
moderates will vote for him, and that Shalom,s opponents 
will likely claim that his support is from Ariel Sharon,s 
supporters.  He added that "the problem is that not many of 
them will vote." 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
ABBAS MEETING IN TUNIS AND HAMAS PARTICIPATION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (C) Shalom said that Palestinian Authority President 
Mahmoud Abbas, whom he met recently in Tunis, is "much better 
than Arafat, and his statements are good, but he must make 
the strategic decision to disarm terrorist organizations." 
Shalom said that he is 'very upset' about the U.S. decision 
to not oppose Hamas participation in the upcoming Palestinian 
elections.  He rejected the view of some people that election 
participation will moderate Hamas.  Hamas is now following 
Hizballah,s example from Lebanon, he asserted, where joining 
the government has made Hizballah more difficult to disarm. 
 
------------------------ 
IRANIAN THREAT TO EUROPE 
------------------------ 
 
5. (C) Shalom warned of Iran,s development of new long-range 
missiles that will be able to reach Europe, but said he was 
pleased with the recent what he termed European realization 
that Iran "is not just Israel,s problem."  He argued for the 
need to take Iran to the Security Council and to consider 
economic and other sanctions on Iran.  He claimed that former 
German Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder recently told him that 
taking Iran to the Security Council would be pointless, since 
the UNSC members would likely decline to impose sanctions for 
fear of negative economic consequences.  Shalom recounted 
that he told Schroeder that "a drop in the standard of living 
would be better than stopping living." 
 
------------------------------------ 
POSITIVE RESULTS FROM ACTION IN IRAQ 
------------------------------------ 
 
6. (C) Shalom listed a number of positive results in the 
region that he said have resulted from American action in 
Iraq: Saddam Hussein,s loss of power, Muammar Kaddafi,s new 
political approach in Libya, elections in Iraq, Lebanon, 
Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority, and new democratic 
rights for women in Kuwait.  He added that Arabs and Muslims 
around the world are now less reluctant to talk to Israel, 
and that he is very pleased with Israeli progress with 
Pakistan and his own recent trip to Tunisia.  Shalom said 
that the biggest obstacle to improved ties between Israel and 
the Muslim world is now Al Qaeda, which he said has targeted 
moderate regimes in Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Morocco, and 
Indonesia. 
 
7. (U) Codel Lieberman did not have the opportunity to clear 
this cable. 
 
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JONES