US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6615

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TEL AVIV 006615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO FOR ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IS, KMDR, MEDIA REACTION REPORT 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
1.  Upcoming Israeli Elections 
 
2.  Israel-Hizbullah Clashes 
 
3.  American Jewry 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
All media led with the upcoming elections.  Leading 
media reported that President Moshe Katsav announced 
that he will sign an executive order to dissolve the 
Knesset and call early elections on March 28, 2006 
according to a compromise reached late Tuesday night. 
This morning, Israel Radio reported that the 
possibility still exists that the Knesset, not the 
President, might vote its dissolution.  Israel Radio 
reported that today, the Knesset's House Committee 
approved the division of the Likud into two Knesset 
factions -- the Likud and PM Sharon's "National 
Responsibility," which will comprise 14 Knesset 
members.  Maariv reported that Sharon will determine 
the composition of his party and the order of its 
candidates.  All media reported that on Tuesday, 
Binyamin Netanyahu called Sharon a "dictator" and his 
family a "crime family."  Major media reported that the 
Likud cabinet ministers decided on Tuesday not to quit 
the government until the election of the party's 
chairman. Yediot reported that Likud activists on the 
ground are not following Sharon.  On the other hand, 
The Jerusalem Post quoted Vice PM Ehud Olmert as saying 
on Tuesday that Likud mayors across the country would 
be supporting Sharon and his new party.  Ha'aretz 
reported that Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and FM 
Silvan Shalom plan to make an attack on Binyamin 
Netanyahu's economic policy the focus of their 
campaigns for the leadership of the Likud Party.  In 
Yediot's lead story, Mofaz was quoted as saying that 
he, not Netanyahu, can lead the Likud to victory. 
Yediot and Israel Radio quoted Shalom as making similar 
remarks about himself. 
 
Israel Radio reported that Shimon Peres will tell Labor 
Party Chairman at their meeting scheduled for today 
that he will continue his political activity in the 
party, but that he will not ask for a secure place in 
the party's list of candidates for the next Knesset. 
The radio reported that Peres told his associates that 
he would be able to continue his activity for peace in 
extra-parliamentary arenas. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Eyal Arad, a top 
Sharon political strategist, told the newspaper on 
Tuesday that Sharon will not -- before the upcoming 
elections -- define which settlements he envisions as 
part of the settlement blocs that Israel will 
ultimately annex. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that on Tuesday, PA 
officials who have been closely watching the latest 
political crisis in Israel expressed fear that Sharon 
might exploit the situation to step up pressure on the 
Palestinians.  However, the newspaper wrote that others 
voiced optimism, saying that the new Israeli government 
would have no choice but to revive the stalled peace 
process.  The Jerusalem Post also reported that PA 
National Security Adviser Jibril Rajoub told the 
newspaper on Tuesday that Sharon's move to the center 
was "better late then never" and that it is a "good and 
positive development."  Leading media reported that on 
Tuesday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak called Sharon 
to wish him good luck in his new course. 
 
All Israeli TV stations broadcast footage initially 
shown on Al Manar-TV, Hizbullah's station, which 
exhibited Hizbullah's direct hits on Israeli Merkava 
tanks on Monday.  Israeli TV commentators and IDF 
sources criticized the IDF's handling of the Hizbullah 
attack.  Maariv cited the anger of Israeli political 
sources over UNIFIL failure to stop the Hizbullah 
attack.  Israel Radio reported that UN Secretary- 
General Kofi Annan strongly condemned Hizbullah over 
the attack and said that Lebanon bore responsibility 
for it.  The radio reported that France has presented a 
draft resolution at the UN Security Council that 
includes the condemnation of IAF strikes on Hizbullah 
outposts, and that Algeria, a member of the Council, 
blames Israel for the incidents.  Israel Radio reported 
that the U.S. wants to remove Israel's name from the 
condemnation.  Israel Radio cited Al Manar-TV as saying 
that this morning, IAF planes dropped leaflets on 
Beirut, telling Lebanese citizens that Hizbullah causes 
significant damage to Lebanon.  The Jerusalem Post 
reported that Israel has once again asked the EU to 
blacklist Hizbullah. 
 
Israel Radio cited the Egyptian daily Al-Ahram as 
saying the PA Civilian Affairs Minister Muhammad Dahlan 
is leaving for Cairo for talks on the opening of the 
Rafah border crossing slated for Friday.  Israel Radio 
reported on talks on the border crossings, which were 
held last night and will resume tonight.  Those talks 
are conducted by teams headed by Amos Gilad, head of 
the Defense Ministry's political bureau, Dahlan, and 
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Richard Jones.  Yediot quoted 
a "senior U.S. source" as saying that the U.S. 
administration encourages PA Chairman [President] 
Mahmoud Abbas to take steps that will demonstrate his 
commitment to disarm the Palestinian terror 
organizations.  However, the source was quoted as 
saying that the U.S. understands that the disarming of 
Hamas is not realistic at this time, but that the U.S. 
does not understand why the PA does not act against 
Islamic Jihad, which the source defines as a small 
group lacking support.  The source was further quoted 
as saying that the U.S. has expressed to Abbas its 
disappointment over the fact that he does not deal with 
Islamic Jihad, and that it has asked him to act. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the Justice Ministry and 
security officials have rejected several fundamental 
recommendations of the Sasson report on illegal 
outposts, which are meant to prevent more outposts from 
being established and impose deterrent sentences on 
those who establish them. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the European Union has prepared 
a harsh report on Israel's activity in East Jerusalem, 
but that it has decided to delay its release in the 
wake of the recent warming of ties between Israel and 
the EU. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the 350 housing units in Ma'aleh 
Adumim for which the Construction and Housing Ministry 
will publish tenders on Thursday, will be located 
within the city's existing built-up areas, and will 
therefore not expand its boundaries. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that at a press conference held 
Tuesday, Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for 
Strategic Studies presented its annual report, which 
determines that the strategic balance in the Middle 
East clearly favors Israel. 
 
Maariv reported that on Tuesday, at Maariv's financial 
conference, Peres called on the EU to include several 
Middle East Countries including Israel and the PA, in 
the Eurozone (the group of countries that use the Euro) 
in order to "privatize peace." 
 
------------------------------- 
1.  Upcoming Israeli Elections: 
------------------------------- 
 
                       Summary: 
                       -------- 
 
Washington correspondent Shmuel Rosner wrote in 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz: "If Sharon wins, 
the Americans will want to see him forming a coalition 
with the parties on the left.... They will prefer such 
a coalition out of a hope that in future, when the 
opportunity arises, it will be more amenable to 
negotiations, easier to maneuver." 
 
Senior op-ed writer Uzi Benziman commented in Ha'aretz: 
"Throughout his entire life, Sharon has destroyed his 
undertakings.... The reason given for all of these acts 
of destruction was national responsibility -- a reason 
that did not rid Sharon's colleagues of the feeling 
that Sharon was betraying them." 
 
Columnist Avraham Tirosh wrote in popular, pluralist 
Maariv: "Disengagement from the Likud ... opens up a 
window of opportunity for a possible coalition with 
Amir Peretz and the Labor Party that would progress 
rapidly towards a peace accord." 
 
                     Block Quotes: 
                     ------------- 
 
I.  "Bush Is Not a Likudnik" 
 
Washington correspondent Shmuel Rosner wrote in 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (November 23): In 
the meantime, from an American perspective, the 
elections in Israel, interesting as they might be, are 
merely a footnote to the political process overtaking 
the Middle East.  And if you want to rank American 
priorities, you can do so by date: first of all the 
elections in Iraq, which will have the greatest impact 
on the American political standing of the President of 
the U.S.; then the elections in the Palestinian 
Authority -- which, as usual, will also bear no small 
potential for influence on the results in Israel; and 
only afterward Sharon-Peretz-Netanyahu." 
 
II.  "Ambiguous National Responsibility" 
 
Senior op-ed writer Uzi Benziman commented in Ha'aretz 
(November 23): "The enthusiasm surrounding Ariel 
Sharon's decision to leave the Likud blurs one's 
vision; the Prime Minister has not presented a clear 
political policy and has not given convincing 
ideological reasons for establishing a new party.  All 
he said at the Monday night press conference was 'Life 
in the Likud has become unbearable' and 'The Likud in 
its present form cannot lead Israel to its national 
goals.'  What those goals are and how Sharon plans to 
reach them - the answers to these questions remain in 
the realm of the unknown.... One of the Likud's 
failures was its ideological obfuscation; what, 
therefore, is the advantage of the new party, if it 
repeats the faults of the mother party?  In addition, 
the public deserves the truth so that it can decide 
among clear alternatives.  Throughout his entire life, 
Sharon has destroyed his undertakings.... The reason 
given for all of these acts of destruction was national 
responsibility -- a reason that did not rid Sharon's 
colleagues of the feeling that Sharon was betraying 
them." 
 
III.  "Sharon-Peretz: A Winning Team" 
 
Columnist Avraham Tirosh wrote in popular, pluralist 
Maariv (November 23): "[Sharon's] quitting the Likud 
and running at the head of a new party is the only 
chance for continued progress with the peace process in 
the framework of the road map, which will lead to a 
final status arrangement.  That is the most important 
aspect of the step Sharon took.  The very fact of that 
act proves to anyone who still harbored any doubt that 
the prime minister is serious and sincere about 
achieving his goal of reaching a final status 
agreement, in the wake of which Israel will position 
itself along its new borders of the Green Line plus the 
settlement blocs that abut it, with a sovereign, 
Palestinian state at its side.  Those are Israel's 
'national goals,' as Sharon put it in his statement on 
Monday, to which the Likud is incapable of leading 
Israel any longer.  A Sharon-Peretz coalition would be 
capable of so doing.... While disengagement from the 
Likud reduces Sharon's chance of winning the elections 
-- Tuesday's polls notwithstanding -- it opens up a 
window of opportunity for a possible coalition with 
Amir Peretz and the Labor Party that would progress 
rapidly towards a peace accord.... Against all [the 
odds] is the fact that [Sharon] is going into this 
current battle from the prime minister's seat, and 
mainly the fact of his demonstrable leadership and his 
proven ability to lead the country to difficult but 
essential crossroads, as shown by disengagement.  That 
is the leadership that Israel needs now, and Sharon has 
an advantage over both Netanyahu and Peretz in that 
field.  This might lead to his victory at the ballot 
boxes and to the establishment of a Sharon-Peretz 
coalition, which will only do Israel good." 
 
 
 
 
 
 
----------------------------- 
2.  Israel-Hizbullah Clashes: 
----------------------------- 
 
                       Summary: 
                       -------- 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post 
editorialized: "Restraint only makes sense if Israel is 
'paid' for it in the form of concrete actions that more 
effectively safeguard our security." 
 
                     Block Quotes: 
                     ------------- 
 
"Hitting Hizbullah" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post 
editorialized (November 23): "Israel responded with 
bombardments against Hizbullah's bases, but has not 
directly attacked the interests of the capitals it has 
held responsible -- namely, Beirut, Damascus, and 
Teheran.  The question is whether such restraint on 
Israel's part, in the face of what the United States 
has rightly condemned as an 'unprovoked attack,' is 
wise.  Once again, Israel seems to be acting by the old 
'rules' that were supposed to have been changed by the 
withdrawal from southern Lebanon behind a UN-recognized 
border.  According to the new rules, Israel would not 
retaliate tit-for-tat in the case of Hizbullah attacks, 
but would act directly against the interests of 
responsible governments in Lebanon, Syria or Iran.... 
Restraint for its own sake, as we should have learned 
by now, is worse than useless: it simply invites 
further and perhaps more deadly attacks.  Restraint 
only makes sense if Israel is 'paid' for it in the form 
of concrete actions that more effectively safeguard our 
security.... The international pressure that has been 
building on Syria should only increase in response to 
that regime's resort, once again, to proxy aggression 
against Israel.  Syria must learn that its only way out 
is to abandon the path of aggression and terror, rather 
than returning to its old-style intimidation tactics. 
It is appropriate that Israel act in-sync with the 
international community in increasing this pressure now 
that, finally, our concerns have become more widely 
shared.  But such cooperation must be a results- 
oriented, two-way street." 
 
------------------ 
3.  American Jewry: 
------------------ 
 
                       Summary: 
                       -------- 
 
Jonathan S. Tobin, executive editor of The Jewish 
Exponent in Philadelphia, wrote in the conservative, 
independent Jerusalem Post: "As the war [in Iraq] drags 
on and Sept. 11 recedes further into the background, 
Jews' insecurity about their place in American society 
and their nightmares about their Christian neighbors -- 
even if unjustified -- may have a greater impact on 
their votes than anything Islamists do." 
                     Block Quotes: 
                     ------------- 
 
"Jewish American Agenda" 
 
Jonathan S. Tobin, executive editor of The Jewish 
Exponent in Philadelphia, wrote in the conservative, 
independent Jerusalem Post (November 23): "Republicans 
were able to gain a crucial few percentage points of 
Jewish votes in 2004 based on the perception of strong 
Republican support for Israel.  Also key to that gain 
was the notion that an administration fighting 
aggressively against Islamist terror would make the 
world a safer place for Jews.  As long as Jews fear al- 
Qaida and its Palestinian allies more than the 
conservative Christians, the Republicans have a 
fighting chance to win a larger share of Jewish votes. 
But if the bulk of these voters still fear that Bush's 
conservative Christian allies are out to turn them into 
second-class citizens, then the Democrats win. 
Republicans can argue that the fears they seek to 
exploit are more immediate and represent a greater 
threat to Israel and Western civilization itself.  But 
as the war drags on and Sept. 11 recedes further into 
the background, Jews' insecurity about their place in 
American society and their nightmares about their 
Christian neighbors -- even if unjustified -- may have 
a greater impact on their votes than anything Islamists 
do." 
 
JONES