US embassy cable - 05MINSK1419

UNCLAS MINSK 001419 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, BO 
SUBJECT: Day of Solidarity Numbers Don't Add Up 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: On November 16, opposition activists 
hosted the second "Day of Solidarity" with those who have 
been persecuted by the GOB.  While the organizers reported 
extremely high levels of participation, embassy 
observations suggest their numbers were inflated.  End 
summary. 
 
2. (U) On November 16, the "Free Belarus" Coalition, 
including Nikita Sasim, journalist Irina Khalip, and wife 
of "disappeared" businessman Irina Krasovsky, organized the 
second "Day of Solidarity."  This monthly commemoration 
event for missing politicians, political prisoners and 
their families aims to unite Belarusians with those who 
have been persecuted by the GOB.  On the 16th of every month 
in the lead up to the presidential elections, the 
organizers ask Belarusians to turn off their lights at home 
from 8 p.m. to 8:15 p.m. and place a lit candle in their 
window. 
 
ORGANIZERS REPORTED OVERWHELMING PATICIPATION 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) At an October 27 meeting with Poloff, the 
organizers predicted some 500,000 people would participate 
in the November 16 event.  This was a five-fold increase 
from the 100,000 participants the organizers reported for 
the first Day of Solidarity on October 16.  To publicize 
the event, activists placed stickers on buses, drew 
graffiti on walls, distributed fliers, sent text messages 
via mobile phones, and relied on simple word of mouth. 
 
4. (U) The half a million estimation proved too ambitious; 
on November 17, the organizers reported that 300,000 people 
participated in the second day of solidarity.  They did 
estimate, however, that 1.5 million people have learned 
about it worldwide.  While they claimed the majority of 
their support came from the regions in Belarus, organizers 
also reported citizens from countries all around the world 
participated in the day of solidarity, especially in 
Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland and Belgium.  Press reports 
indicate that youth activists in Kiev lit hundreds of 
candles on Independence Square, and then marched to the 
Belarusian Embassy to burn more candles and lay flowers. 
 
ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS CONTRADICT REPORTED PARTICIPATION 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
5. (SBU) While the reported numbers of participants in the 
second day of solidarity were robust, post's observation 
suggested a much lower level of participation at least in 
the capital city of Minsk.  On November 16, Emboffs 
wandered around several neighborhoods in Minsk to observe 
the second day of solidarity.  Of the several thousand 
apartments the officers viewed from the street, only three 
candle sightings were reported. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) Either the participation in the regions was much 
greater than in Minsk or the numbers the organizers 
reported were vastly inflated.  While the idea of uniting 
people in Belarus and around the world in solidarity with 
those who have been persecuted by the GOB is a commendable 
form of non-violent protest, it does not appear to have 
caught on yet among most Belarusians.  But from tiny 
acorns... 
 
KROL