US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4675

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004675 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT:   PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: YUNLIN, NANTOU AND 
CHANGHUA COUNTIES, A MIXED BAG IN THE TAIWAN HEARTLAND 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (U) Summary:  Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and 
Kuomintang (KMT) candidates for county magistrate in Yunlin, 
Nantou, and Changhua counties are engaged in highly 
competitive races.  In Yunlin County, where factions are 
still influential, both DPP and KMT candidates are energized 
and hopeful for a win.  In Nantou County, a Green-leaning 
independent candidate has complicated the race while in 
Changhua County, the KMT candidate, who continues to catch up 
to the DPP incumbent in the polls, has been accused of 
corruption by the DPP. The large number of undecided voters 
in all 3 races will likely bring these counties down to the 
wire. End Summary. 
 
Yunlin County:  Historically Blue, Becoming More Green 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
2. (C) KMT Yunlin County Chairman Cheng Ching-chen told AIT 
that for the past 50 years, Yunlin has been a KMT stronghold. 
 Originally, he said, the voter base was 65 percent KMT and 
35 percent DPP but had shifted in the wake of the last two 
presidential elections, to 30 percent KMT, 35 percent DPP and 
35 percent undecided.  Cheng explained that factions are 
still strong and that the Chang faction, affiliated with the 
Farmer's Association and led by former County Magistrate 
Chang Jung-wei, currently in jail on a bribery conviction, is 
the most influential.  The Hsu faction, affiliated with KMT 
candidate Hsu Shu-po's father, is also influential. Cheng 
told AIT that the KMT, with more than 30,000 local members, 
support from both major factions, and a boost from the recent 
DPP scandals, is confident that Hsu Shu-po can win.  Cheng 
confirmed that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has made one 
appearance in Yunlin and plans to return.  Cheng hoped that 
Ma's visit, along with separate visits by Legislative Speaker 
Wang Jin-pyng and Lien Chan, will help sway the undecided 
voters.  Cheng described vote buying as part of "our culture" 
but promised that the KMT will not buy votes even if the DPP 
decides to. 
 
3. (C) DPP Yunlin County Chairman Wang Kao-hsin agreed that 
the DPP's support base is smaller than the KMT's. However, 
Wang described in detail how the DPP won 18 out of 20 
townships and villages in the 2004 presidential election. 
Wang also described his frequent trips around the county, in 
particular to four townships that have been DPP strongholds 
for the past 50 years.  Due to the party's cultivation of 
these 4 mini-strongholds, the DPP, Wang told AIT, is growing 
stronger, and he confidently predicted that DPP candidate Su 
Chi-feng will win the election. Wang explained that 
approximately half of Yunlin County's population is composed 
of farmers and that Su Chi-feng's main campaign plank is to 
make Yunlin County the farming capital of Taiwan.  According 
to Wang, farmers, concerned only about their daily lives, 
usually support the DPP, and have not been put off by recent 
DPP scandals.  Wang also told AIT that polling is inaccurate 
since voters tend to hide their political leanings.  Wang 
insinuated that the DPP's support is larger than the polls 
indicate, likening the DPP support base to the wind -- "you 
can't see it but you can feel it." 
 
Nantou County:  Differing Eyewitness Accounts 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
4. (C) Hsiung Jun-ping, campaign manager for Nantou County 
KMT candidate Lee Chao-ching, acknowledged to AIT that Lee, 
who is currently Nantou City mayor, may not be the most 
outstanding candidate but that incumbent DPP Magistrate Lin 
Tsung-nan's dismal performance and the DPP scandals have 
 
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given Lee a boost.  Since the majority of Nantou County 
residents are farmers, Hsiung continued, Lee will focus his 
platform on agricultural issues.  Hsiung stated that during 
the 2000 presidential election, the Green/Blue support ratio 
was 2 to 1, but that the ratio has narrowed to 1 to 1. 
Hsiung confirmed that Ma Ying-jeou visited once and asserted 
that Ma's charisma has helped Lee gain votes.  Hsiung 
dismissed President Chen's appearances and told AIT that Chen 
cannot draw large crowds anymore.  Hsiung also told AIT that 
independent candidate Ling Chung-nan, who withdrew from the 
DPP after failing to win the DPP nomination, will split the 
Green vote and help Lee's campaign.  Hsiung was confident 
that the split Green vote and the DPP corruption issues will 
translate directly into more votes for the KMT.  Hsiung 
estimated a high voter turnout of 70 percent. 
5. (C) DPP Nantou County Acting Chairman Chen Yi-ling told 
AIT that KMT candidate Lee Chao-ching's 8-year term as Mayor 
of Nantou City has produced no real results and attributed 
KMT candidate Lee's rise in the polls to independent 
candidate Lin Ming-chen's withdrawal.  Chen accused Lee of 
vote buying during his second mayoral bid and told AIT that 
the DPP is concerned that the KMT will buy votes again during 
this campaign.  Lee credited the 3-in-1 election format for 
boosting voter turnout and predicted the high turnout rate of 
70 percent will help the DPP.  Chen told AIT that DPP 
internal polls show DPP candidate Tsai Huang-lang in the 
lead.  Chen asserted that elderly and younger voters prefer 
the DPP and that most of the swing voters will vote DPP. Chen 
asserted that the final margin of victory will be under 
10,000 votes.  Chen confirmed that President Chen Shui-bian 
visited Nantou twice and will return two more times, arguing 
that the President's visits have helped Tsai's campaign. 
 
Changhua County:  DPP Confident and On the Attack 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
6. (C) KMT Changhua County Chairman Hsu Fu-ming, told AIT 
that the current scandal-infested atmosphere is helping the 
KMT since voters are disappointed in the DPP.  According to 
Hsu, KMT internal polls indicate that its candidate Cho 
Po-yuan, is in the lead.  Hsu asserted that it is premature 
to predict a winner, however, due to the large number of 
undecided voters.  Although both sides are making 
accusations, he said, the impact will be minimal; the key to 
the election will be the candidates' platforms and wooing 
undecided voters.  Hsu told AIT that the Pan-Blue camp has a 
larger voter base during local, small-scale elections, but 
said the DPP has an advantage during county magistrate 
elections.  Hsu estimated the voter turnout rate will be 
between 60 to 70 percent.  Hsu described Ma Ying-jeou's 
frequent visits as a boost to Cho's campaign and confirmed 
that Ma will visit three more times.  The party's island-wide 
November 27 rally, Hsu said, will directly compete with the 
DPP's rally scheduled for the same day and could be an 
important factor in the election. 
 
7. (C) DPP Changhua County Executive Director Chen Yung-fong 
told AIT that DPP internal polls put DPP candidate and 
incumbent Magistrate Weng Chin-chu ahead by 10 percentage 
points.  Chen estimated that polling is more accurate in 
metropolitan areas than in the countryside since voters in 
the country may disguise their vote in the hopes of selling 
their vote to the highest bidder.  Chen told AIT that since 
there have not been any new scandals emerging, Weng Chin-chu, 
a member of the New Tide, has a good chance of winning. 
However, Chen indicated that the DPP is cautious and 
confirmed Changhua County will participate in the DPP's 
island-wide anti-corruption rally on Sunday, November 27. 
Chen called attention to the KMT's own corruption problems 
and mentioned Cho Po-yuan's suspected involvement in corrupt 
procurements for the Taiwan Railway Administration.  Chen 
predicted voter turnout rate will be approximately 60 percent 
and attributed the past high voter turnout rate to the KMT 
practice of vote buying.  He has not ruled out possible KMT 
vote buying at the township/village level this time but he 
assured AIT that the DPP will not participate.  Chen told AIT 
that Weng Chin-chu will focus on bringing swing voters back 
into the DPP fold. 
Paal