US embassy cable - 05ABUJA2289

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002289 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, PREL, NI, ELECTIONS 
SUBJECT: PRES. OBASANJO CONSOLIDATES HIS GRIP ON RULING 
PARTY 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 2244 
     B. ABUJA 2079 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b) 
 and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  President Obasanjo continues to consolidate his grip 
on the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in preparation 
for its national convention early next year.  The results of 
the latest regional (zonal) congresses of the PDP confirm 
Obasanjo's control over party machinery.   Success in 
completely  dominating the ruling party has apparently given 
President Obasanjo and his allies enough confidence to allow 
them to begin to reveal the contours of a more ambitious 
political agenda. 
 
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Obasanjo's PDP:  It's My Party 
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2.  (U)  The PDP conducted its party congresses over the 
weekend of November 12-13 in the six geo-political zones of 
the country.  For the most part, the events were drama-free, 
although several long-standing party divisions at the state 
level are still unresolved.  Like the congresses on the local 
and state level, officers were not voted into office, but 
rather chosen by the party hierarchy and merely "affirmed" by 
local participants.  This process of pre-determination of 
office holders was exclusive, thereby weeding out any 
potential non-loyalists to Obasanjo.  The affirmation process 
was also in contravention of both the party's constitution 
and a high court ruling compelling the party to follow its 
own rules. 
 
3.  (C)  In one case, a rival candidate for a regional 
position refused to give way to the party's hand-picked 
candidate, forcing a vote.  In the process, the rival won the 
majority of the votes, but President Obasanjo personally 
vetoed his election, appointing the loser in his place. 
 
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Limited Options for PDP-ers Outside the Inner Circle 
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4.  (C)  Party members who have been dealt out of the PDP 
have used a number of strategies in hopes of regaining entry. 
 In several states parallel party congresses were conducted 
and alternate PDP leadership structures elected.  But this 
far into the party nomination process, President Obasanjo's 
complete control of the ruling party appears irreversible. 
Although the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC)  has the 
statutory power to intervene in intra-party fights, it has 
not made any public comment and is unlikely to become 
involved in sorting out the situation, especially given that 
the PDP ignored a previous Abuja High Court ruling. 
 
5.  (U)  In some cases, dissent from within the PDP has 
morphed into organized opposition.  Disgruntled current and 
former PDP members met recently in Lagos to form the Movement 
for the Defense of Democracy (MDD), a new national pressure 
group, and, potentially, a political party.  The formation of 
the MDD has been supplemented by Movement for the Restoration 
of Democracy (MRD), organized last week, which is a Northern 
pressure group organizing against a third term, and the 
formation this week of the Northern Members Forum (NMF), a 
grouping of Northern members of the National Assembly from 
both parties.  The NMF's meeting November 21 at the Abuja 
Hilton attracted about 1,000 attendees.  The keynote speaker 
was Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who made a low-key speech 
in which he said that he had recently been "de-registered" by 
the PDP.  The NMF claims to have pledges against a third term 
from 189 legislators. 
 
6.  (C)  The controversy may have spawned yet another 
gathering of concerned citizens as well.  It appears that at 
least 65 community organizations from throughout the country 
are organizing a series of protests beginning in Lagos and 
Abuja by mid-December.  Comprised of mostly twenty- and 
thirty-something activists, this group intends to bring 
pressure on the governors and National Assembly members 
through rallies organized in key locations. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C)  Although public criticism of the congresses 
continues, actual violence at party meetings has decreased as 
many PDP partisans have either created their own structures 
or joined with other allies.  The Vice President, although 
hurt, is not yet finished.  He still maintains the capacity 
to cause problems for the PDP and fully intends to continue 
the fight.  His supporters also apparently have become the 
catalyst for the formation of structured opposition to any 
attempt to extend President Obasanjo's current mandate. 
FUREY