US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2372

UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 002372 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, G/IWI, AND DRL/PHD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAM AND DCHA/DG 
 
E.O 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PHUM, KCOR, KWMN, PINR, ECON, HO 
SUBJECT: FEMINISM, CRONYISM, AND HONDURAN ELECTIONS: THE 
LIKELY LOOK AND FEEL OF THE NEW CONGRESS 
 
REF: (A) TEGUCIGALPA 2364 
     (B) TEGUCIGALPA 1612 
     (C) TEGUCIGALPA 1593 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  With Honduran national elections taking place 
November 27, polls are beginning to flesh out what shape the 
128-seat Honduran legislature will likely take.  While it is 
uncertain if the 2004 Electoral Law mandating a quota at 
least 30 percent female participation will prove to be the 
cause or not, it does appear that a larger number of women 
will be elected to serve in the legislature this year. 
Additionally, it appears that Honduran political dynasties 
will remain intact through another election; the question 
will be whether these individuals were elected on their own 
merits or due to their family name.  The only real certainty 
with the congressional elections, however, is that it will 
take a long time for the official dust to settle.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
2.  On November 18, pollster Arturo Corrales of Ingenieria 
Gerencial, S.A., met with EmbOffs to share the results of 
his mid-November polling.  His results were particularly 
interesting on female candidates and children of political 
heavyweights.  In test voting conducted by his firm among a 
representative sample of voters in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro 
Sula, female candidates scored highly and look likely to do 
quite well in the elections. 
 
3.  While it is uncertain if the 2004 Electoral Law 
mandating a quota at least 30 percent female participation 
that boosted the number of female candidates will prove to 
be the cause or not (ref B), Corrales' results, combined 
with commentary from other Embassy contacts, make Post 
believe that it is likely that a larger number of women will 
be elected to serve in the legislature this year.  Although 
many women are alternates rather than main candidates, it 
does appear evident that women are becoming a force unto 
themselves on the Honduran political scene.  With a majority 
of likely voters being female, women's concerns may play a 
determining role in many congressional elections. 
 
4.  Corrales also reported that it is probable that the 
group of Honduran political dynasties will continue as the 
next generation is elected to congress (ref C).  He noted 
that famous political offspring, some of them female, also 
scored highly in his company's test voting.  While Corrales 
believes that those that are likely to be elected will do so 
mostly due to their own campaigning, there are many pundits 
that believe it is the family name (Flores, Azcona, etc.), 
rather than personal attributes, that will be the source for 
such votes. 
 
5.  The exact make-up of the Congress will take far longer 
to determine than the Presidency, with vote counting and the 
application of proportionality (ref A) expected to go very 
slowly (upwards of two weeks).  One thing that appears to be 
very possible is that neither the National Party nor Liberal 
Party will have outright control of the legislature (a 
problem the Maduro Administration has confronted for four 
years).  Although the two major parties are encouraging 
their party members to vote the entire party slate, it looks 
like most voters, especially in urban areas with higher 
education levels, will cross party lines to vote for some 
congressional candidates from other parties. 
 
Ford