US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8845

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008845 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PBTS, PGOV, MOPS, ECON, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: INDIA DOUBTS NEPALESE MAOIST/POLITICAL PARTY 
BREAKTHROUGH, WELCOMES U.S. PRESSURE ON KING 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 8750 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Recent press reports of a breakthrough 
between Nepalese Maoists and political parties are not true, 
outgoing MEA Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae insisted on 
November 22, acknowledging nonetheless that the two sides 
have met in Delhi to discuss a solution to the ongoing 
crisis.  Rae told PolCouns and PolOff that observers in Nepal 
perceive a growing gap between Indian and US strategies and 
that our position articulated in Kathmandu is tilting in 
favor of the King; in this context, he strongly welcomed 
Ambassador Moriarty's November 16 comments in Dehli. 
PolCouns reaffirmed our position that the King must work with 
the political parties to find a democratic solution and laid 
out Ambassador Moriarty's strategy to achieve this (Reftel). 
Rae welcomed the U.S. initiative for a cease-fire and noted 
that any settlement will undoubtedly require conversations 
between the Maoist and the parties.  He commented that 
leaders of the Nepalese political parties who visited Delhi 
recently insisted to the GOI that the Maoists are looking for 
a political solution.  Rae reiterated that a Maoist victory 
was unacceptable to India and that any strategy employed in 
Nepal must ensure that the parties emerge as the strongest 
player vis-a-vis the Palace and Maoists.  End Summary. 
 
No Shift in US Policy 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) In a meeting to introduce new MEA Joint Secretary 
(North) Prakaj Saran to PolCouns, Rae discounted press 
reports claiming that recent discussions between the Maoists, 
the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), 
Nepali Congress Party and other political parties would soon 
lead to a breakthrough.  He also expressed concern about 
sentiments in Kathmandu that the US was siding with the 
palace, which some have cited to suggest there is a growing 
gap between US and Indian positions.  PolCouns indicated that 
Ambassador Moriarty's November 16 visit and public statements 
were made specifically to dispel these rumors.  Rae welcomed 
the fact that the US was not changing its position on the 
need for action by the King to reach out to the parties. 
 
Dialogue The Only Solution 
-------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Rae acknowledged that discussions between the 
political parties and Maoists have occurred in New Delhi, 
arguing that an overall political settlement will only be 
possible through dialogue that includes the Maoists.  "We do 
not want to do anything that will overly empower the Maoists 
because we know what these terrorists do," Rae added. 
However, he warned that we should not expect to reach a 
political solution in Nepal without their involvement, and 
noted that Nepali Congress President Girga Prasad Koirala 
during his recent visits to Delhi insisted the Maoists were 
ready to negotiate in good faith.  Rae reiterated New Delhi's 
view that the Maoists must be shown that they cannot win 
militarily, and that we must bring them into the mainstream. 
There are two tracks that we can take, Rae claimed; the first 
is through informal exchanges with the Maoists, and the 
second, through interactions with the King.  Talks with the 
palace have not been fruitful so far, he elaborated, but 
India intends to continue to pressure the King to return to 
multi-party democracy. 
 
Parties Remain Weak 
------------------- 
 
4. (C) Rae observed that, while the political parties are 
important, they are the weakest leg of the "triangle."  The 
Maoists and the palace currently hold the two keys needed to 
find a political solution, because each has an armed force. 
He asserted that, ultimately, the political parties must be 
the strongest link and that any strategy used must strengthen 
them vis-a-vis the other two players.  He reiterated that a 
Maoist victory was unacceptable to the GOI and the only 
durable solution remained with the parties. 
 
Hoping for a Cease-Fire 
----------------------- 
 
5. (C)  PolCouns laid out Ambassador Moriarty's strategy on 
pressing the Palace and the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) to 
adopt a cease-fire as a way to regain the political 
initiative (Reftel).  Rae agreed that a cease-fire would be a 
good idea and could pave the way for the political parties to 
return to the countryside.  Noting reports that the RNA used 
the latest cease-fire to kill more Maoists, he regretted that 
the palace did not reciprocate the halt in military action. 
Rae commented that it would be beneficial if the King could 
be persuaded to be part of a cease-fire and that such an act 
would demonstrate that the King is truly dedicated to peace. 
 
6. (C) Rae concluded that he and his replacement Prakaj Saran 
will visit Nepal in the coming weeks and suggested this would 
provide a venue for the GOI to build on the Prime Minister's 
message to the King in Dhaka about moving back to democracy. 
BLAKE