US embassy cable - 05CALCUTTA420

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: NDA DECISIVELY WINS IN BIHAR 
 
REF: A)  CALCUTTA 00373;  B) CALCUTTA 00387;  C) CALCUTTA 00404;   D) 
LCUTTA  00417 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  In November 22 voting results, the National 
Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) and 
the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) registered a landslide victory 
in Bihar's State Assembly elections, winning more than the 122 
seats needed for a governing majority.  The defeat was a 
stunning blow to the long-ruling Union Railway Minister Lalu 
Prasad Yadav, his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress 
Party (Congress).  The collapse of the RJD is attributed to a 
number of factors:  Ram Vilas Paswan's defection from the SDF, 
splintering of the Muslim vote, disenchantment with Lalu's 
record of corruption, and strict monitoring of the polls by the 
Election Commssion (EC).  Success in Bihar could rejuvenate the 
beleaguered NDA, which faced a major setback in the 2004 general 
election.  The NDA now rules in virtually the entire central 
India (except Uttar Pradesh) including Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, 
Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat.  The loss of 
Bihar will have no immediate impact at the national level for 
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), but it is one of many 
cuts that may cumulatively weaken the coalition.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) NDA has experienced a landslide victory in Bihar.  By the 
afternoon of November 22, the NDA had already won 146 seats, 
more than the 122 required to form a State government in the 
243-seat Legislative Assembly.  For the first time in Bihar, the 
NDA has defeated the RJD and Congress Secular Democratic Front 
(SDF), which received only 66 seats.  Chief Minister-Designate 
Nitish Kumar's JDU, the NDA's dominant party, received 84 seats 
to the BJP's 53 by late afternoon.  In the SDF, the RJD, with 55 
seats, far exceeded junior partner Congress with only 9.  Kumar, 
a former Union Railway Minister, will now be sworn-in as the new 
Chief Minister for the second time.  His earlier stint as Bihar 
Chief Minister in March 2000 lasted just a week.  Kumar's 
victory brings to an end the 15-year rule of Lalu Yadav in the 
State. 
 
3.  (SBU) The NDA received far more seats than exit polls had 
predicted.  Most polls anticipated only a slim lead of 115 to 
119 seats for the NDA but with too few to form a government. 
The NDA's significant gains were attributed to a number of 
factors, but key was Union Steel, Chemical and Fertilizer 
Minister Ram Vilas Paswan's refusal to join the SDF with his Lok 
Janashakti Party (LJP).  The LJP won had won only 11 seats by 
late afternoon.  Paswan's split from the SDF drew away much 
needed votes and divided the critical Muslim vote - a key vote 
bank for Lalu and his RJD.  In addition, the JDU, though aligned 
with the sectarian BJP, did pick up Muslim votes as well. 
President of the All India Pasmanda Muslim Mahaz Anwar Ali said 
he believed the Muslim vote had completely splintered.  Director 
of Asian Development Research Dr. Shaibal Gupta noted that the 
Bihar electorate was also fed-up with the Lalu's poor record of 
governance.  He believed dissatisfaction with the lack of law 
and order and public services cut across all castes and so Lalu 
was not able to capitalize on his lower caste constituent base. 
Finally, the EC was monitored polling very closely, which 
limited the opportunity for the RJD to tamper with ballots - a 
frequent accusation against the party in previous elections. 
For RJD the only silver lining in a disappointing day was the 
electoral victory of the RJD's  lead candidate and Lalu's wife, 
Rabri Devi. 
 
4.  (SBU) Victory in Bihar could rejuvenate the beleaguered NDA, 
which faced a major setback in the 2004 general election. The 
NDA now rules in virtually all of central India (except Uttar 
Pradesh) including Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Madhya 
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat.  Bihar's State BJP President and 
Member of Parliament Sushil Kumar Modi told Post that Lalu's 
defeat in Bihar could "shake the Union government" since the UPA 
allies may start looking for new alliances.  He added, "The 
people of Bihar are not fools.  They have suffered misrule in 
both the RJD-Congress as well as Buta Singh's Governor rule. 
They have voted for us and have shown their resentment towards 
those who are responsible for lawlessness in the State."  The 
UPA's imposition of Presidential rule after the indecisive 
February election was also unpopular in Bihar and on being ruled 
unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, has become a political 
liability for the UPA. 
 
5.  (SBU) Paswan who emerged as a kingmaker during February 
State elections, but lost ground this time, told media that "I 
do accept that I lost, but my main aim of getting Lalu Yadav 
defeated in Bihar is fulfilled."  Even with his recent antics, 
Paswan may remain in the UPA, because the Congress needs his and 
Lalu's support in the next general election.  The UPA needs 
Paswan as an important Dalit leader; especially given the likely 
defection of Dalit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) Leader Mayawati in 
Uttar Pradesh (UP). 
 
 
6.  (SBU) The NDA also hopes that UPA's loss in Bihar could pave 
the way for a mid-term election in the country.  Gyanendra 
optimistically claimed, "Instability in the UPA could very well 
go beyond control."  He added that to weaken the UPA at the 
Center, the Kumar government in Bihar may expedite the pending 
corruption cases and charges against Lalu.  However, political 
analysts from Bihar feel that with the UPA showing signs of 
weakness, the supporting Left parties, which had been playing 
the role of the Opposition, will now moderate their attacks on 
the UPA.  The UPA may thus become a beneficiary of a unity in 
adversity, winning greater support from its normally fractious 
allies. 
 
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Role of Election Commission 
--------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Holding free, fair and peaceful polls in Bihar was a 
challenge for the EC.  Prior to the beginning of polling process 
in Bihar, the EC's Special Advisor K.J Rao mentioned that 
holding elections in Bihar was tougher than elections in Jammu 
and Kashmir, given the poor infrastructure, Maoist threat and 
corruption.  For the first time, the EC used digital cameras at 
all the 41 counting centers to monitor the counting process. 
The EC also photo-documented every stage of the counting process 
from the unsealing of electronic voting machines (EVMs) to the 
announcement of the results.  To disseminate the results of the 
counting instantly, the EC connected all the counting centers 
via the internet.  Also, 100,000 security forces had been 
deployed for extra security at the counting centers. 
 
8.  (SBU) Chief Election Commissioner of India B.B. Tandon said 
that holding assembly elections in Bihar was "challenging," and 
he came out in strong defense of EC Advisor K.J. Rao, who has 
been under attack from Congress and RJD in the wake of his tough 
handling of poll irregularities.  Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 
N.K. Sinha told Post that "to hold elections in a peaceful, free 
and fair manner in Bihar is a very difficult task.  It was a big 
challenge.  Deleting the names of criminals (against whom the 
non-bailable arrest warrants were pending for last six months) 
from the electoral roles has helped.  The election boycott call 
given by Naxalites was also playing in our mind."  The EC is now 
planning to implement the "Bihar model" for West Bengal State 
Assembly elections in May 2006. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (SBU) The NDA victory is a sign that voters, even in Bihar, 
expect more from their government.  The backward castes and 
poor, who supported the RJD in the past, became frustrated with 
Lalu's 15 years of empty promises.  The UPA made a mistake in 
assuming that political expediency in aligning with RJD would be 
sufficient to win, failing to realize the groundswell of 
dissatisfaction with the status quo in Bihar.  The UPA's 
miscalculation in imposing an unconstitutional Presidential rule 
in the State only made matters worse by handing governance to a 
corrupt Governor Buta Singh and further antagonizing the Bihari 
voters and undermining the UPA's credibility.  The Presidential 
Rule in Bihar will continue to linger as political liability for 
the UPA, with the Supreme Court's full decision coming out now 
elections are over.  The UPA's poor performance in Bihar may 
become one of a thousand cuts that could eventually cripple the 
coalition. 
JARDINE