US embassy cable - 05ABUJA2287

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002287 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, NI, THIRDTERM 
SUBJECT: RUMBLINGS INCREASE AGAINST THIRD TERM BID 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas P. Furey for Reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) The controversy over possible attempts by President 
Obasanjo to extend his tenure beyond 2007 continues to 
dominate current political discussions in Nigeria.  Some 
lawmakers who spoke to POL staff admitted that there "is 
pressure from the presidency" to endorse a constitutional 
amendment enabling the president to stand for a third term. 
Such an amendment was proposed last week by a sub-committee 
of the National Assembly, and a senator who opposed the 
amendment was kicked off of the sub-committee.  While 
contacts claim that a majority of lawmakers and ordinary 
Nigerians are opposed to a third term, proponents of the plan 
are employing various tactics, including monetary 
inducements, to succeed. End Summary. 
 
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First Moves in the Legislature 
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2. (C) The suspicions about Obasanjo's plans to hang on to 
power beyond his constitutionally allowed two terms were 
apparently confirmed early last week.  A sub-committee of the 
National Assembly's Joint Constitutional Review Committee 
curiously recommended "three terms of four years each" for 
the President and State governors as parts of areas to be 
amended in the current constitution.  The committee, headed 
by key Obasanjo supporter Deputy Senate President Ibrahim 
Mantu (PDP, Plateau), has not met for over a year. 
Interestingly, after the press leaked the committee's report, 
there was no denial from the Presidency.  Instead, a staunch 
opponent of the third-term plan, Senator Ahmed Aruwa (ANPP, 
Kaduna), was forced off the committee by the senate 
leadership for expressing a dissenting opinion.  He was 
replaced by the Senate Leader Sarki Tafida (PDP, Kaduna), 
another of President Obasanjo's allies. 
 
3.  (C) In a meeting November 18, Senator Aruwa told Poloffs 
that he plans to continue and even accelerate his opposition 
to the third term, despite his ouster from the Constitutional 
Review Committee.  He claimed that over 50 of 109 Senators 
(and many in the lower house) are united in their opposition 
to the amendment, and their ranks are growing.  According to 
Aruwa, a constitutional change enabling a third term "will 
not sail through" the legislature.  However, he asserted that 
some state governors who "looted the treasury" are supporting 
the third term bid in order to maintain their immunity from 
prosecution.  Aruwa also confirmed media reports that some 
members of the legislature have been offered cash by 
Obasanjo's supporters in order to support a third term 
amendment.  (Note:  Representative Sola Adeyeye also alleged 
in the press on November 18 that some members of the National 
Assembly were promised 70 million naira if the plan to amend 
the constitution to reflect a third term bid works out. 
Other sources say the price for a Senator is double this.) 
 
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Business, Civil Society Speak Out 
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4.  (U) Separately, representatives of the Manufacturers 
Association of Nigeria (MAN) emerged from a meeting November 
15 with a resolution to support President Obasanjo's third 
term bid. Mr. Charles Ugwuh, Chairman of MAN, said that an 
extension in office would enable Obasanjo to conclude his 
"economic reforms."   MAN's endorsement was widely 
criticized.  Lagos lawyer and human rights activist Gani 
Fawehinmi said that "anyone who is supporting a third term 
for President Obasanjo, including members of MAN, are enemies 
of Nigeria." 
 
5. (U) The leadership of the Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC), 
the umbrella body for Nigerian workers, warned that a third 
term would lead to anarchy.  In a statement by the NLC 
Secretary General, Comrade John Odah, NLC warned that 
 
SIPDIS 
"setting aside or willfully manipulating the constitution 
could begin a process of anarchy which will negatively affect 
the business environment."  It described the call by the MAN 
as "self-serving, parochial and unpatriotic." 
 
6.  (U) In its reaction, the Transition Monitoring Group 
(TMG) condemned the third term bid and all its proponents. 
TMG National Coordinator Angella Odah said the call for an 
elongated term is "not people-driven" and would throw Nigeria 
back to the era of dictatorship.  Ms. Odah warned that a 
third term would amount to an imposition on Nigerians and 
therefore an invitation to anarchy.  TMG wondered why the 
National Assembly is not thinking of amending the 
Constitution in areas that would ensure free, fair and 
transparent elections but is in a hurry to give a blank check 
to the President. 
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International Community Statements 
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7.  (U)  The international community has also been drawn into 
the third term debate, though international reactions have 
been muted and emphasize that any change to the rules must be 
constitutional.  During a visit to Abuja November 13, Ghana's 
President and Chairman of ECOWAS John Kuffour weighed in on 
the third term issue. Kuffour warned that lack of respect for 
Nigeria's constitution could breed anarchy.  Similarly, 
British High Commissioner to Nigeria Richard Gozney told 
reporters November 12 that Britain would only support a 
constitutional amendment that has the backing of Nigerians. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  Efforts to ensure control of the political system 
continue apace.  It is increasingly clear that President 
Obasanjo views the third term as a viable scenario.  It is 
less clear whether he can ultimately succeed.  With a gang of 
political actors bent on lining their pockets, it is easy for 
the pro-third term activists to hold sway over the short 
term.  With the inherent instability throughout Nigeria, 
however the lack of popular support for Obasanjo and his 
coterie could create a situation that could spin out of 
control with very little notice. 
 
FUREY