US embassy cable - 05AMMAN9055

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009055 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR H, NEA/ELA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, EAID, ECON, OREP, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDAN: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL HAGEL 
 
1.  (U) Embassy Amman warmly welcomes CODEL Hagel to Jordan. 
The Government of Jordan (GOJ) is not only one of our closest 
allies, but it is fully engaged in supporting our most 
important priorities in the region, including creating a free 
Iraq, fulfilling the President's vision of a two-state 
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, fighting global 
terrorism, and advancing comprehensive Jordanian and Arab 
reform.  We have highlighted below recent political, economic 
and social developments that set the context for your visit. 
 
2.  (SBU) TERRORIST BOMBINGS:  Jordan is united in a mood of 
defiance after the November 9 bombings of three Amman hotels. 
 Anger over the bombings spans the political spectrum, and 
includes groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood that are 
critical of Jordan's close relationship with the U.S. 
Hundreds of thousands of Jordanians have demonstrated 
peacefully around the country to denounce the attacks and to 
pledge their support for King Abdullah.  The killing of 
innocent Muslims in the blasts, especially the carnage 
wrought on a wedding party, has significantly cut into 
sympathy for al-Qaeda amongst the sizable number of 
Jordanians who had previously condoned its terrorist 
operations in Iraq and elsewhere.  In a national survey 
published on November 16, 87.1% of respondents said they 
believed that al-Qaeda was a "terrorist organization," 
compared to only 7.4% who held the opposite view. 
Approximately 65% said their views on al-Qaeda had changed 
for the worse after the November 9 bombings.  The GOJ 
recently announced new regulations aimed against foreign 
militants, and is drafting new legislation to prohibit the 
promotion or justification of terrorist acts.  To date, the 
attacks have had little negative impact on Jordan's economy. 
 
 
3.  (SBU) NATIONAL AGENDA FOR REFORM:  King Abdullah and his 
reform team are proud of their achievements, but are keen to 
accelerate the pace of political transformation.  Earlier in 
the year, the King appointed a royal commission made up of 
members from a broad swathe of Jordanian society to draft a 
comprehensive "National Agenda" that would chart the course 
for sweeping reforms in eight different substantive areas 
over the next 10 years.  After completing its work last 
month, the commission is preparing to formally present the 
National Agenda to the King in the coming days.  Regarding 
political reforms, the Agenda includes recommendations for 
new laws on political parties and elections that would 
strengthen the currently weak role of parties and create a 
more representative parliament.  Supporters of the status quo 
in parliament and elsewhere, however, have already expressed 
strong resistance to some of the expected changes, 
recognizing that a more democratic political process and open 
economy would negatively impact their entrenched political 
and economic interests.  To help push forward his reform 
agenda, the King recently replaced several of his key 
advisors in the royal court and named a number of new 
Senators.  There is much speculation that the King may soon 
appoint a new prime minister to lead a revamped cabinet. 
 
4.  (SBU) SUPPORT FOR IRAQ:  The GOJ has taken a 
forward-leaning view of the conflict in Iraq, realizing 
earlier than most of Iraq's neighbors that the stabilization 
and rebuilding of Iraq should be a top regional priority. 
Despite some domestic political opposition and strong public 
sentiment against U.S. policy on Iraq, the GOJ has been 
steadfast in assisting our efforts in Iraq.  The Iraqi police 
training facility in Jordan, for example, has provided 
instruction for thousands of new Iraqi police officers.  The 
GOJ has also provided training for the new Iraqi army and 
numerous Iraqi government civilians (such as air traffic 
controllers and employees of Iraqi ministries).  On September 
10, Jordanian Prime Minister Adnan Badran - accompanied by 
four other cabinet members - became the first senior Arab 
state official to travel to Baghdad since the fall of Saddam. 
 King Abdullah regularly meets with Iraqi officials visiting 
Jordan and he has repeatedly encouraged all Iraqi factions 
and groups to participate in the political process.  Jordan 
has named an ambassador to Iraq, retired general Ahmad 
al-Lozi; the timing of his arrival in Baghdad depends now on 
when the Iraqi leadership can accept his credentials. 
 
5.  (SBU) ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS:  The GOJ continues to 
urge the Palestinian Authority to coordinate closely with the 
Israelis on post-withdrawal Gaza and on advancing the 
roadmap.  Jordan has lent both rhetorical and tangible 
support to President Abbas in his efforts to bolster his 
authority in the Palestinian territories, and to reform the 
security apparatus.  Jordan's 1994 peace treaty with Israel - 
though publicly unpopular - remains a cornerstone of its 
security and economic strategy.  The GOJ strongly opposes the 
construction of the Israeli security barrier outside the 
Green Line and the expansion of Israeli settlements. 
 
6.  (SBU) COMBATING EXTREMISM:  The GOJ has a strong interest 
in combating Islamic extremism, and has actively supported 
religious tolerance and moderation.  In November of 2004, 
Jordan's top cleric, backed by the King, launched the "Amman 
Message," which argued that authentic Islamic traditions call 
for respect for others, tolerance, freedom of conscience, and 
the rejection of extremist violence.  In July of this year, 
Jordan hosted an international conference of approximately 
170 Islamic scholars and clerics to promote the Amman 
Message.  Its closing communiqu, endorsed by Islamic 
authorities in several countries - including Grand Ayatollah 
Sistani in Iraq - clearly denounced key elements of 
al-Qaeda's ideology. 
 
7.  (SBU)  ECONOMIC ISSUES:  Jordan has traditionally been 
dependent on foreign assistance, for which it is very 
grateful, but is determined to move from an aid-based to a 
trade-based economy.  Since King Abdullah assumed power, 
Jordan has emerged as a model for economic reform in the 
region.  In close cooperation with USAID, Jordan rewrote its 
laws and regulations to meet WTO requirements, modernized its 
customs regime, and took important steps to encourage foreign 
investment.  These reforms helped Jordan's GDP of USD 10.8 
billion grow by 7.6% last year in real terms, fueled by 
booming exports to Iraq and the U.S.  (NOTE: The U.S.-Jordan 
Free Trade Agreement went into effect in December 2001.  END 
NOTE.)  Jordan still has work to do, however, to reform basic 
government services, create a climate of full transparency 
and accountability, and curb widespread unemployment, 
particularly among the large number of young Jordanians who 
enter the job market each year.  Despite its recent strong 
economic performance, Jordan's system of fuel-price subsidies 
at a time of record high oil prices, combined with its large 
public debt burden, has put a tight fiscal squeeze on the 
GOJ.  Jordan has already cut back these subsidies - a 
politically painful step - in line with plans to completely 
end them within two years, but in the meantime is seeking 
additional assistance from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. 
The GOJ's revised budget for 2006 aims to bring down the 
deficit from 16.1% of GDP in 2005 to 7.5% in 2006.  On 
November 8, the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation 
selected Jordan as eligible for its Threshold Program. 
Assistance under this program will be used to help Jordan 
eventually qualify for Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) 
development assistance funding. 
HALE