US embassy cable - 02ANKARA8783

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 008783 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, TU, POLITICAL PARTIES 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION CHP SEES AN AK PARTY DIVIDED 
AGAINST ITSELF AND SEEKS TO EXPLOIT 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter; 
reasons: 1.5 (b,d) 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Trounced at the polls on Nov. 3, Deniz 
Baykal's CHP is already trying to turn the tables on the 
Islam-influenced AK Party government.  CHP is now focusing on 
the headscarf controversy that flared up again when AK's 
Speaker of Parliament Arinc and his headscarf-clad wife were 
on hand together to see off President Sezer on a foreign 
visit late last month.  We expect CHP to continue to hammer 
at this point in the aftermath of the Nov. 29 National 
Security Council meeting, during which AK was lectured by the 
military about the virtues of Kemalist secularism (septel). 
End summary. 
 
 
2. (C) Much of the AK (Justice and Development) Party's 
success in the Nov. 3 national election rested on its ability 
to woo both religious voters and those on the center-right 
disaffected by mainstream party fecklessness.  According to 
contacts on the political left-of-center, AK also benefited 
from the perception that its main rival, the CHP (Republican 
People's Party), is an elitist organization out of touch with 
ordinary Turks; CHP leader Baykal's unpopular personality, 
they say, also encouraged some center-left voters to stay 
home on election day. 
 
 
3. (C) Aware of their party's shortcomings, senior CHP 
officials are trying to shift the focus to AK and its own 
foibles.  They tell us that a split between AK's "religious" 
and "mainstream" wings is already growing and will 
ultimately, they hope, lead to AK's demise -- either via a 
confrontation with the Deep State or in a decisive defeat at 
the ballot box. 
 
 
-- CHP Deputy Group Chairman (party whip) Mustafa Ozyurek 
pointedly told us Nov. 22 that CHP is "extremely 
uncomfortable" with Arinc's supposed headscarf posturing, 
predicting that this is only the beginning of anti-Kemalist 
things to come.  Ozyurek claimed that the headscarf is the 
Islamist camel's nose under the Kemalist tent.  Religious 
Turks, he asserted, "now want equality" with the secularists 
whom Ozyurek represents -- tacitly implying that they have 
not yet achieved that status -- "but will soon seek 
superiority."  (Note: aware of the risk of being boxed in so 
early in AK's tenure, AK leader Erdogan subsequently issued a 
clear warning to party members to avoid bringing up the 
headscarf issue in public.  End note.) 
 
 
-- Haluk Koc, another CHP Deputy Group Chairman, reiterated 
to Poloff Nov. 29 CHP's concern about the headscarf.  He 
averred that an AK split is inevitable, but is likely to 
emerge only slowly over the next year.  Koc explained that 
AK's "religious base" will demand more progress on 
politically sensitive issues such as the headscarf, which CHP 
and the Establishment see as a redline.  He predicted that 
"moderates" within AK will not support challenging the State 
on the issue. 
 
 
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Comment 
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4. (C) While some of the CHP officials' comments reflect 
wishful thinking, they also capture what may be AK's Achilles 
heel.  From what CHP is telling us, it is clear that the 
party hopes to exploit the headscarf controversy to burnish 
its own credentials as parliamentary champion of the Kemalist 
establishment; paint AK as confrontational and as a mere 
continuation of Refah-Fazilet Islamism; and drive a wedge 
between what it sees as competing factions within AK. 
Indeed, one local AK official -- a former administrator in a 
center-right party -- told us prior to the elections that if 
AK pushes too hard on religious issues, people like himself 
will leave the party in droves.  AK leaders except Arinc have 
been trying to avoid the headscarf issue, recognizing the 
danger of being decisively labeled "reactionary" as they try 
to consolidate their Government's position early in its 
tenure.  Nevertheless, we can expect CHP to continue trying 
to hammer away at this chink in the AK armor. 
PEARSON